Francisco Costa

Working Papers

• Industrializing Agriculture: Structural Transformation and Sugarcane in São Paulo
  with Francisco Luis Lima, and Leticia Nunes.

• National Borders and the Conservation of Nature
  with Robin Burgess and Benjamin Olken. [Coverage: Washington Post, VoxDev] R&R at Journal of the European Economic Association.

• Quantifying the Carbon Preserved by Protected Areas in the Amazon
  with Rafael Araujo, Arthur Bragança, Marcelo Sant'Anna, Eduardo Adames, and Frank Gentile.

Publications

Environmental

1. Efficient Conservation of the Brazilian Amazon: Estimates from a Dynamic Model
   with Rafael Araujo and Marcelo Sant'Anna.  

   • Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming. [publisher] [working paper] [replication files] [Coverage: VoxDev] 

2. The Environmental Costs of Political Interference: Evidence from Power Plants in the Amazon
   with Dimitri Szerman and Juliano Assunção. 

   • Journal of Public Economics, 2025. [publisher] [working paper] 

3. Too Hot to Learn? Evidence from High School Dropouts in Brazil
   with Diana Goldemberg.  

   • Economics Letters, 2025. [publisher] [working paper] [replication files]

4. The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil
   with Igor Carreira and Joao Paulo Pessoa.

   • Journal of Development Economics, 2024 [publisher] [working paper] [replication files] [Coverage: LSE Business Review, VoxLACEA]

5. Going Viral: Public Attention and Environmental Action in the Amazon
   with Rafael Araujo and Teevrat Garg. 

   • Journal of Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 2024. [publisher] [working paper] [replication files] [Coverage: Nature Climate Change, UCSD Today]

6. The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture
   with Fabien Forge, Jason Garred, and Joao Paulo Pessoa. 

   • Environmental and Resource Economics, 2023  (Lead Article) [publisher] [working paper]

7. Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy Saving Program
   with François Gerard. 

   • Journal of Political Economy, 2021 [publisher] [working paper] [web appendix] [replication files] [Coverage: VoxDev]

Development

8. Seeds of Disparity:  the Gender Land Divide from Brazil's Agricultural Transition
   with Rafael Araujo, Bruna Borges, and Kelly Santos. 

   • Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2025. [publisher] [working paper] [replication files]

9. Local Economic Impacts of Hydroelectric Power Plants: Evidence from Brazil
   with Dimitri Szerman and Juliano Assunção. 

   • Economía LACEA Journal, 2025.  [publisher] [working paper] 

10. How to Attract Physicians to Underserved Areas? Policy Recommendations from a Structural Model
    with Leticia Nunes and Fabio Sanches. 

    • Review of Economics and Statistics, 2024 [publisher] [working paper] [replication files] [Coverage: VoxDev, Estadão, Valor]

11. Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge
    with Angelo Marcantonio and Rudi Rocha.

    • Journal of the European Economic Association, 2023 [publisher] [working paper] [slides] [replication files] [Coverage: Folha, Folha 2, Café da Manhã]

12. Winners and Losers from China's Ascension in International Trade: a Structural Approach
    with Joao Paulo Pessoa. 

    • Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2019 [publisher]

13. Homicides and the Age of Criminal Responsibility: A Density Discontinuity Approach
    with João de Faria, Felipe Iachan, and Bárbara Caballero. 

    • Economía LACEA Journal, 2018 [publisher] [working paper] [replication files] [Coverage: Exame.com, JB]

14. Effort Complementarity and Team Size, An Experimental Analysis of Moral Hazard in Teams
    with Joisa Dutra.

    • Economics Bulletin, 2018 [publisher]

15. Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom
    with Jason Garred and Joao Paulo Pessoa. 

    • Journal of International Economics, 2016  [publisher] [working paper] [web appendix] [concordances and replication files] [Coverage: VoxEU, VoxLACEA]

Book Chapters

16. Beyond the Pulpit: Pentecostal Growth and Economic Transformations in Brazil
    with Angelo Marcantonio and Rudi Rocha. In Economic, Religion and Public Policy, edited by Vladimir Maltsev and Nirvikar Singh, 2025.

(Jul, 2025)