Current position

• Principal Economist, Bank for International Settlements, 2025 - now

Previous position

• Senior Economist, Bank for International Settlements, 2021 - 2025

• Economist, Bank for International Settlements, 2016 - 2021

• Strategist, Global Rates and FX Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 2014 - 2016

Education

• Ph.D., Economics, University of California, San Diego, 2014

• M.S., Physics, University of California, San Diego, 2009

• Ph.D. student, Physiology and Biophysics, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, 2006-2007

• B.S., Applied Physics (First Class Honors), Hong Kong Baptist University, 2006

Selected Publications

• Liquidity in the euro area sovereign bond market during the “dash for cash” driven by the COVID-19 crisis, Economics Letters,  January 2025 (with Vassilios G. Papavassiliou)

• The effects of climate change-related risks on banks: A literature review, Journal of Economic Surveys,  October 2024 (with Azusa Takeyama, Fulvio Pegoraro, Gregory Sutton, Haakon Solheim, Laura-Chloé Kuntz, Nora Pankratz and Olivier De Bandt)

• The term structure of carbon premia, the Eighth Public Investors Conference Proceedings,  October 2023 (with Omar Zulaica)

• Global Inflation and Global Monetary Policy Tightening: Implications for the Euro Area, Intereconomics,  June 2023 (with Richhild Moessner and Fabrizio Zampolli)

• Explaining monetary policy spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded , Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 2022 (with Andreas Schrimpf and Jonathan Kearns)

• Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle, Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2020 (with Claudio Borio and Mathias Drehmann)

• The negative interest rate policy and the yield curve, Journal of Applied Econometrics, September/October 2020 (with Jing Cynthia Wu) 

• Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, March 2016 (with Jing Cynthia Wu)

Other Publications

• US dollar's slide in April 2025: the role of FX hedging , BIS Bulletin,  July  2025 (with Hyun Song Shin, Philip Wooldridge)

• US spillovers amid macroeconomic divergence , BIS Quarterly Review, March 2025 (with Fernando Avalos, Karamfil Todorov)

• Negative interest rate swap spreads signal pressure in government debt absorption , BIS Quarterly Review, December 2024 (with Matteo Aquilina, Andreas Schrimpf, Vladyslav Sushko)

• Markets' increasing response to labour market conditions in the United States , BIS Quarterly Review, September 2024 (with Sonya Zhu)

• Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment , BIS Quarterly Review, September 2024 (with Han Qiu and James Yetman)

• Interest rate risk management by EME banks , BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023 (with Julian Caballero, Alexis Maurin and Philip Wooldridge)

•  The Internationalisation of EME currency trading , BIS Quarterly Review, December 2022 (with Julian Caballero, Alexis Maurin and Philip Wooldridge)

• Achievements and challenges in ESG markets , BIS Quarterly Review, December 2021 (with Michela Scatigna, Anna Zabai and Omar Zulaica) 

• Stress in European money market funds at the outbreak of the pandemic, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2021 (with Avalos Fernando) 

• Monetary policy, relative prices and inflation control: flexibility born out of success, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2021 (with Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, Egon Zakrajsek).  A brief version in Vox EU

• Investor size, liquidity and prime money market fund stress, BIS Quarterly Review, March 2021 (with Avalos Fernando) 

• US Treasuries and equity sell-offs: is the hedge faltering? BIS Quarterly Review, December 2020 (with Avalos Fernando)

• Government bond yields and the dynamics of duration supply, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2020 (with Avalos Fernando)

• The short and long end of equity prices during the pandemic, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2020 (with Avalos Fernando)

• Investors' risk attitudes in the pandemic and the stock market: new evidence based on internet searches, BIS Bulletin, No 25, December 2019 (with Marlene Amstad, Giulio Cornelli and Leonardo Gambacorta)

• Offshore markets drive trading of emerging market currencies, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2019 (with Nikhil Patel)

• Yield curve inversion and recession risk, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2019 (with Sirio Aramonte)

• Derivatives trading in OTC markets soars, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2019 (with Philip Wooldridge)

• The financial cycle and recession risk, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2018 (with Claudio Borio and Mathias Drehmann)

• Sovereign and bank tensions in the euro area, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2018 (with Fernando Avalos)

• Term premia: models and some stylised facts, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2018 (with Benjamin H Cohen and Peter Hordahl)

Working Papers

• The role of geopolitics in international trade, BIS Working Papers No 1249 (with Han Qiu and James Yetman)

• The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement and monetary policy transmission, BIS Working Papers No 1114 (with Alessandro Barbera and Sonya Zhu). A brief version in SUERF Policy Brief

• Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections, BIS Working Papers No 1105 (with Boris Hofmann).  A brief version in SUERF Policy Brief.

• The demand for government debt, BIS Working Papers No 1009 (with Eren Egemen and Andreas Schrimpf). Updated version (March 2025). 

• Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media, BIS Working Papers No 917 (With Marlene Amstad, Leonardo Gambacorta and Chao He ). A brief version in Vox China

Conferences  (as presenter/discussant*/session chair**):

• 2025: BoJ/IMS-BoK/ERI Annual Research Workshop; BIS Reserve Management Workshop; Banque de France Research Seminar*; ABFER (Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research) Annual conference** ;  China International Conference in Macroeconomics*;  HKIMR-IMF-BIS Joint Conference**

• 2024: Southern Workshop in Macroeconomics; 46th EMEAP-BIS Financial Market Forum; ABFER (Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research) Annual conference*; NBER 32nd annual East Asian Seminar on Economics*; AoF/HKIMR-IMF-BIS-AMRO joint conference*; Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics; Yonsei University Macroeconomics Workshop; European Finance Association Annual Meeting; HKIMR Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy*; 9th Public Investor Conference; 47th EMEAP-BIS Financial Market Forum; 9th Workshop of the Australasian Macroeconomics Society; Econometric Society Australian Meeting

• 2023: ABFER (Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research) Annual conference; BIS Banking Webinar; BoJ/IMS-BoK/ERI Annual Research Workshop; CEPR Paris Symposium; CEPS Ideas Lab 2023; Green Finance Research Advances; HKIMR Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy; 45th EMEAP-BIS Financial Market Forum

• 2022: BIS Banking Webinar; BIS-SNB research workshop; BoJ/IMS-BoK/ERI Annual Research Workshop; Central Banking Research Association Annual Meeting; International Association for Applied Econometrics Annual Meeting; SEACEN Centre Research Webinar Series; 8th Public Investor Conference

• 2021: BIS Banking Webinar; 2nd LTI/Bank of Italy Workshop on Long-Term investors' trends: theory and practice*; 4th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics; 13th Annual Paul Woolley Centre Conference*

• 2019: ABFER (Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research) Annual conference**; OECD STEP (Short Term Economic Projections) meeting; RCEA (Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis) Money-Macro-Finance conference; 9th Bundesbank Term Structure Workshop*

• 2018: ABFER (Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research) Annual conference; BISIP CNY Investor Conference; EABCN (Euro Area Business Cycle Research Network) conference on unconventional monetary policy; International Association for Applied Econometrics conference; International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics

• 2017: Asian Econometric Society Annual Meeting; Barcelona GSE Summer Forum; BIS-SNB research workshop; 7th Bundesbank Term Structure Workshop; European Economic Association Annual Meeting; Geneva International Macroeconomics and Finance Workshop; HKMA-FRB Atlanta joint conference on “Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons Learned”*; North America Econometric Society Annual Meeting; Northern Financial Association Annual Meeting; Society for Computation Economics Annual Meeting

• Before 2017: Northern Financial Association Annual Meeting (2016)*; IMF Annual Research Meeting (2015); Canadian Economics Association Annual Meeting (2015)

Invited talk

Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Bank of Canada; Bank of England; Bank of Israel; Bank for International Settlements; Bank of Japan; Bloomberg; Boston Fed; Dallas Fed; Goldman Sachs; Graduate Institute Geneva; Kansas Fed; Reserve Bank of Australia (2021, 2024), Swiss Risk Association; S&P Global Ratings; University of California Irvine

Referee service

The Review of Economics and Statistics; Journal of Econometrics; Journal of Applied Econometrics; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Journal of Business and Economic Statistics; Journal and Banking and Finance; Journal of International Money and Finance; International Journal of Central Banking; Journal of Financial Stability; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics; International Journal of Financial Studies; Canadian Journal of Economics; Economic Inquiry; Economic Letters; Empirical Economics; Journal of Empirical Finance; Journal of Financial Econometrics; Journal of Macroeconomics; The North-American Journal of Economics and Finance; Israel Science Foundation; HKIMR Working Paper