Publications

- RESEARCH PAPER
  - Variance and skewness in density forecasts: Assessing world GDP growth. Empirical Economics. 2025.
  - Working paper version. 2017.
- BOOK CHAPTER
  - Assessing the effects of natural resources on long term growth: An extension of the World Bank's long term growth model. In Chapter 4 of Loayza, Norman V. and Steven Pennings. 2023. The long term growth model: Fundamentals, Extensions, and Applications. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
  - Working paper version. 2022.
- BLOG
  - COVID-19 and poverty vulnerability. 2022.
- RESEARCH PAPER
  - Poverty vulnerability: The role of poverty lines in the post-pandemic era. Economics Bulletin. 2021.
  - Working paper version. 2021.
- WORLD BANK RESEARCH AND POLICY BRIEF
  - Sudden influxes of resource wealth to the economy: Avoiding "Dutch Disease." 2020.
- BLOG
  - Uncertainty in ending extreme poverty. 2019.
- WORLD BANK POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
  - Uncertainty in ex-ante poverty and income distribution: Insights from output growth and natural resource country typologies. 2019.
- WORLD BANK RESEARCH AND POLICY BRIEF
  - Global trade: Slowdown, factors, and policies. 2018.
- BLOG
  - Agribusiness trade as a pillar of development: Measurement and patterns. 2017.
- WORLD BANK RESEARCH AND POLICY BRIEF
  - Measurement and patterns of world agribusiness trade. 2017.
- WORLD BANK RESEARCH AND POLICY BRIEF
  - Should we fear foreign exchange depreciation? 2016.
- RESEARCH PAPER
  - Estimating parameters and structural change in CGE models using a Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach. Economic Modelling. 2016.
  - Working paper version. 2015.

Forthcoming:

*Traded agribusiness and the regulatory framework.

*ENSO phenomena: assessing its prediction accuracy

*The Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) paradigm.

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