The Coming “Perfect Storm” of Natural Disasters
Prehistoric Contributions
In addition to the commonly reported consequences of Climate Change, there are two further devastating consequences of global warming, coming from prehistoric times, when the planet’s polar regions were once vast tropical areas covered in lush, dense vegetation, now frozen as a dense tundra in a permafrost layer below the ice, and when, in that era, nature, through the action of the oceans, absorbed and sequestered vast amounts of excess CO2 and methane, generated from sources like volcanoes and decaying biomass, and stored these gases as vast fields of frozen ices at the bottom of the oceans on the sea floor, the problems being (a) as polar ice melts, the tundra thaws, releasing vast amounts of additional CO2 into the atmosphere, estimated capable of contributing an additional double or triple the amount added by humanity post Industrial Revolution (b) as the oceans warm, they melt and additionally release the vast amounts of frozen sea floor CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. Particularly troubling is the frozen methane, a white carbonate rock ice known as Gas Hydrate. Unfortunately, the release of these gases into the atmosphere from global warming would not be gradual – as heating water abruptly transitions from liquid to gas at the boiling point of 212°, once the melting points of the arctic permafrost tundra and sea floor ices are reached, massive releases of the gases would occur planetary-wide in abrupt bursts or “burps“, relatively instantly adding significantly more greenhouse gas, with methane being 25 times more lethal than CO2, than humanity has added post Industrial Revolution. This natural phenomena has already been observed occurring in a small but deadly form, documented in the BBC/TLC documentary “Killer Lakes”, describing life-threatening explosions of gas from CO2/methane buildup in several West African lakes, the phenomena being known as “lake overturn” (aka limnic eruption/exploding lake), a natural disaster in which CO2 saturation from volcanic activity or organic matter decomposition, triggered by landslide, earthquake or volcanic activity, suddenly erupts from the deep lake waters, which may also cause lake tsunamis as the rising CO2 displaces water, posing the dual threats of suffocation & drowning for those on the shores. According to the BBC report, “one of the most terrifying of all natural phenomena - lake overturn [which causes]…Death by suffocation… first struck in 1984 at Lake Monoun, in Cameroon. 37 people mysteriously died, suddenly and silently. In 1986… it all happened again…Lake Nyos, also in Cameroon… almost 1,800 people sleeping in houses around the lake suffocated in their sleep…[the gas further] killing everything within 25km…[additionally] Lake Kivu, in Rwanda…one of the largest and deepest lakes in Africa…two million people live around its shore…is also filling up with carbon dioxide… Worryingly, Lake Kivu is sitting in an earthquake zone and surrounded by active volcanoes…If an eruption or an earthquake was to happen under the lake, then the effect could release millions of tons of asphyxiating gas into the surrounding areas. Until a solution is found, millions of lives could be at risk”. Thus a massive global ”burp” of ocean floor CO2/methane, likely accompanied by tsunamis, could trigger a life mass-extinction event from world-wide suffocation and drowning.
Perfect Storm
If we do not effectively & quickly respond to climate change, we soon pass all the ecological tipping points & a “perfect storm” of disasters kicks in – as global ice continues melting much faster than predicted, (primarily due to surface melt water draining thru crevasses to greatly lubricate under-glacier slippage planes, seriously accelerating glacial movement off land & into sea - estimates for year 2100 melt rates were recently revised to a much earlier 2020-2030), so global warming finishes melting (a) mountain glaciers, (causing Asia’s & the Middle East’s main rivers to dry up, which ⅔ of global population depend on for fresh water & agriculture; contributing 15 feet to ocean rise) (b) Greenland (contributing 20 feet to ocean rise) (c) western Antarctic ice shelf (contributing 20 feet to ocean rise) (d) the rest of the Antarctic (contributing 250 feet to ocean rise). Total ocean rise passes 300 feet in a world where 40% of the global population lives along shorelines. All the ice gone in turn leads to a vastly diminished planetary albedo (the total ice-based white surface area available to reflect solar radiation back into space), leading instead to capturing more solar radiation over greatly increased areas of dark ocean exposed from the melted ice, heating up the oceans (due to their being a thermal mass acting as heat sink), where temperature rise kills off the oceanic plankton, as well as terrestrial microbes that support plant growth, both creatures constituting the base of the planetary food chain. Additionally figure in that new data & computer models have drastically revised several critical tipping points, the 1st, the Copenhagen 2009 global temperature increase limit of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) is now considered by IPCC NASA scientist James Hansen to be too high & a recipe for disaster, & the 2nd, the maximum additional CO2 the atmosphere can tolerate of 565 Gigatons, is also too high & if attained would lead to a predicted global temperature increase limit of 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit) in just 16 years. Further, if the remaining fossil fuel reserves are burned, that would contribute an additional 2,795 Gigatons to the atmosphere. Add recently observed sudden, abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible temperature rises of several degrees over a single year lasting for over a century in various important parts of the Earth's climate system, along with ocean heating evaporating several additional trillion gallons of water vapor, held, carried & released by the warmer air over land, feeding storms with record downpours & flooding, while simultaneously over dryer areas the additional atmospheric heat causes more rapid soil dehydration resulting in epic droughts. Top off with massive global “burps” of polar & ocean floor CO2/methane, & the stage is set for a serious threat to the existence of civilization, even to Life itself.
End of "Perfect Storm" Section
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RESOURCES
● United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Newsroom Paris 2015 COP21/CMP11
● United Nations Sustainable Development Summit 2015 > Sustainable Development Goals > 13 Climate Action "Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts"
Climate Change
● The U.N.’s latest report on climate change is terrifying
● Irreversible Damage Seen From Climate Change in UN Leak
● 5 terrifying facts from the leaked U.N. climate report
● Earth's Dashboard Is Flashing Red—Are Enough People Listening?
● Keeping warming to 2 °C is not enough to save species
● This chart will silence your friends who make excuses for climate change
● Virtual Reality Viewfinders Show Sea Level Rise and What to Do about It
● Bill Gates: Who will be most affected by climate change? What can we do?
● James Hansen’s new climate study is terrifying, but he still has hope
● Obama Calls Out How Climate Change Will Wreck the Economy
● Climate change will destroy the planet’s circulatory system
● The Nations That Will Be Hardest Hit By Water Shortages By 2040
● CO2 Levels above 400 PPM Threshold for Third Month in a Row
● UN study shows atmospheric CO2 increases reach 30 year high
● CO2 Levels for February Eclipsed Prehistoric High
● World May Blow Through Global Warming Pollution Limit in 30 Years
● Rise in greenhouse-gas concentrations continues at alarming rate
● Greenhouse Gases Hit Record High Amid Fears of CO2 Saturation Point
● New Reports Offer Clearest Picture Yet of Rising Greenhouse Gas Emissions
● Surprise! CO2 Directly Linked To Global Warming
● World on track for worst-case warming scenario
● Have We Passed the Point of No Return on Climate Change?
● Coal Plants Will Emit 300 Billion Tons of Future CO2
● Air Pollution and Extreme Weather Combine to Kill
● Burning Trash Bad for Humans and Global Warming
● How Global Warming Helped Cause the Syrian War
● Obama Insists that Climate Change Hurts Health, Sharpening Debate
● Climate Change Has Got The Earth In Hot Water
● Sea levels are rising and they’re not going to stop, says NASA
● New NASA Model Maps Sea Level Rise Like Never Before (Video)
● 22 Years of Sea Level Rise Measured From Space | Video
● Big trouble ahead for ocean’s tiny microbes
● There’s only one way to fix the oceans now
● Hundreds of sea-floor methane plumes spotted by sonar
● Methane Leaks from Oil and Gas Wells Now Top Polluters
● Tibet's Glaciers at Their Warmest in 2,000 Years
● People Mostly to Blame for Recent Glacier Melt
● If Greenland's Ice Melts, Sea Levels Rise 23 Feet | Video
● Why you should be very concerned about Greenland's literal meltdown
● Sunlight Boosts CO2 from Thawing Permafrost
● Major Antarctic ice survey reveals dramatic melting
● Antarctica has never been this hot: The record was broken twice last week
● A second giant blob of Antarctic ice is getting ready to drown us
● Antarctica is basically liquefying
● Rising Temperatures Threaten Tropical Species Most
● Coral reefs are about to crash in a big way
● After 400 Million Years, Coelacanth at Risk of Extinction
● The Last Time Oceans Got This Acidic This Fast, 96% of Marine Life Went Extinct
● Louisiana is drowning, quickly
● Rising Sea Levels Are Already Making Miami’s Floods Worse
● Climate change is baking Alaska
● Alaska Experiences Dramatic Climate Change
● Global Warming Is Already Clobbering the Amazon
● The Weather Channel has your forecast for 2050
● Here’s what your Hawaiian vacation will look like in 2050
● Great stuff to see before it's obliterated by climate change
● This legendary accounting firm ran the numbers on climate change
● UC to invest $1 billion to tackle climate change
● Researchers pluck carbon from the sky, turn it into diamonds
● How diesel can be made from air
● Making Liquid Fuels From Sun and Air
● With UN Climate Summit Opening, Marches Planned Around the World
● We’re way more screwed than we were the last time the U.N. had a big climate meeting
● Promises to Cut Climate Change Pollution Expected at U.N.
● The leaders of the next U.N. climate talks are already pessimistic
● Massive New York march aims to focus world's eyes on climate change
● Over 950 organizations commit to the People’s Climate March
● The climate movement is way too focused on market-based solutions
● Apple, Google join White House pledge to fight climate change
● How Far Does Obama's Clean Power Plan Go in Slowing Climate Change?
● Move over MoMA, New York’s new climate change museum is about to be the hottest place in town
● The Economist Climate Change Topic page: The deepest cuts Paris via Montreal The shadow of Copenhagen Try jam today
● Are you there, God? It’s me, climate scientist
Climate Refugees
News:
● Solomon Islands: Township in Solomon Islands Is 1st in Pacific to Relocate Due to Climate Change
● Tuvalu: The world’s first official climate refugees land in New Zealand
● Vanuatu: Vanuatu disaster prompts calls for climate change action
● Kiribati & Marshall Islands: Raging storms, rising seas swell ranks of climate refugees; The Kiribati People Battle Sea Level Rise; "Kiribati...tide gauge...more than three meters above...baseline...that was 2005"
● Pacific islands: Jobless young people desert sinking Pacific islands
● Oceania: “a 30-50 cm [~ 1 – 1.75 foot] sea-level rise projected by 2050 would threaten low islands” -- United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report (UN IPCC WGII AR5) Chapter 29. Small Islands; “a rise in sea level…Even a 3-foot rise would inundate...island countries...Low-lying islands will also be hit hard…How far might the sea level rise?...The Dutch, for their coastal planning purposes, are assuming a 2.5-foot rise for 2050” -- Grist, Raging storms, rising seas swell ranks of climate refugees
●● Small Island States, Facing Rising Seas, Seek Economic Overhaul
Documentary:
● Maldives: "The Island President is the story of President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, a man confronting a problem greater than any other world leader has ever faced—the literal survival of his country and everyone in it...as one of the most low-lying countries in the world, a rise of three feet in sea level would submerge the 1200 islands of the Maldives enough to make them uninhabitable" -- The Island President, Synopsis; (PBS)
Report:
● New Caledonia & French Polynesia: Potential impact of sea level rise on French islands worldwide
Article:
● Guardian series on climate refugees: America's first climate refugees An undeniable truth? "It's happening now...The village is sinking"
Info:
● Definition: "A climate refugee is a person displaced by climatically induced environmental disasters. Such disasters result from incremental and rapid ecological change, resulting in increased droughts, desertification, sea level rise, and the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones, fires, mass flooding and tornadoes. All this is causing mass global migration and border conflicts." -- Climate Refugees
● Outlook: “The prospect for this century is a rise in sea level of up to 6 feet. Even a 3-foot rise would inundate ...island countries...Low-lying islands will also be hit hard. The 39 members of the Alliance of Small Island States stand to lose part or all of their territories as sea level rises. Among the most immediately threatened are Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. Well before total inundation, islanders face salt water intrusion that can contaminate their drinking water and make it impossible for deep-rooted crops to survive. Eventually, all crops will fail. Some 3,000 of Tuvalu’s 10,000 people have already migrated to New Zealand, seeking work under a labor migration program. Larger populations, such as the 300,000 people in the Maldives, will find it more difficult to migrate elsewhere. The president of the Maldives is actively pursuing the possibility of purchasing land for his people to migrate to as the sea level inches upward and makes island life untenable...the government of the Maldives decided to organize a “staged retreat” by moving people from the lower-lying islands, some 200 in total, to a dozen or so slightly higher islands. But even the highest of these is only about 8 feet above sea level...How far might the sea level rise?...The Dutch, for their coastal planning purposes, are assuming a 2.5-foot rise for 2050. If the Greenland ice sheet, which is well over a mile thick in places, were to melt completely, sea level would rise 23 feet. And if the West Antarctic ice sheet were to break up entirely, sea level would rise 16 feet. Together, the melting of these two ice sheets, which scientists believe to be the most vulnerable, would raise sea level 39 feet. And this does not include thermal expansion as ocean water warms, an important contributor to sea-level rise...A second category of environmental refugees is also closely related to elevated global temperatures. A higher surface water temperature in the tropical oceans means there is more energy to drive tropical storm systems, which can lead to more-destructive storms” -- Grist, Raging storms, rising seas swell ranks of climate refugees
Organization:
● United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR): "The Storm Ahead...The Earth's climate is changing at a rate that has exceeded most scientific forecasts. Some families and communities have already started to suffer from the negative side of climate change, forced to leave their homes" -- The Storm Ahead
Climate Tech
● ”X-Prize”: “awarded to the first technology that comes up with a feasible way to extract carbon from the atmosphere, [Sir Richard Branson] noted that ‘we’ve had 10,000 submissions, which we’ve whittled down to 12 really good ideas’ -- “Branson, Gore Announce $25 Million ‘Virgin Earth Challenge’”, Sir Richard Branson, “We’re Killing the World", BIO International Convention Keynote
●● Lackner's artificial tree startup Kilimanjaro Energy a finalist in Virgin Earth Challenge’s $25-million Prize for CO2 reduction tech
● CO2 Satellite: “NASA Launches Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 Satellite To Monitor Greenhouse Gases