The Georgia Forecast

The Georgia Forecasttm (TGF) is an organization and project whose purpose is to provide accurate and timely forecasts of the key macroeconomic variables in Georgia. These include, among others, growth rate for real gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate, and inflation rate.

The TGF mission is to conduct and publish research that will assist decision makers in the economic development of Georgia. TGF is an Ltd. associated with the Advanced Research Center of The University of Georgia and is governed by its own Board.

As an organization, TGF is composed of some 150 volunteers. Click here for an organization chart. TGF Organization Chart

 As a project, TGF is a model that uses both quantitative and judgmental forecasting techniques. Click here for a conceptual diagram of the model.  TGF Model

The first forecast published by TGF showed real GDP growth at 13 percent for 2007. Other forecasters were showing projections of 7-8 percent. Actual results were about 12.5 percent, so TGF was close.

TGF uses many sources, including:

     American Chamber of Commerce in Georgia

     Consumer and Producer Outlook Surveys

     Doing Business in Georgia

     Embassies in Georgia

     Global Insight

     International Institute of Forecasters

     IMF in Georgia

     National Bank of Georgia

     National Investment Agency

     Ministry of Finance of Georgia

     Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia

     Statistics Georgia

     World Bank Mission in Georgia


More forecasting links:

     Forecasting Principles

     Forecasting Handbook

     Forecasting Dictionary

     Delphi Decision Aid

     Time Series Analysis