consumerandproduceroutlooksurveys
Consumer and Producer Outlook Surveys
The Georgia Forecast uses a combination of mathematical models and judgmental methods. One of the judgmental methods uses surveys of consumers and producers in Tbilisi and Gori.
Conceptually, the Consumer Outlook Survey (COS) and Producer Outlook Survey (POS) are similar to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Surveys Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
Each month, TGF surveys 200 consumers and 40 producers (commercial, industrial, financial) in Tbilisi and 100 consumers and 20 producers in Gori. Questions are designed to assess the outlook of the respondents. TGF computes a ratio of those who believe the economy will be better next year to those who think the economy will be worse. A ratio above one signals a degree of optimism about the future. A ratio below one signals pessimism.
The technique is an application of rational expectation theory.