2012

Formation and Elicitation of Beliefs in Experiments

On April 26 and 27, 2012, the CIRPÉE and the WZB, presented in Berlin a conference entitled "Formation and Elicitation of Beliefs in Experiments". Charles Bellemare, in charge of the Social policies, market structures and employment area of research, Sabine Kröger, in charge of the Public economics and political economy area of research, and Dorothea Kübler, Director of the Research Unit Market Behavior, from the WZB in Berlin, Germany, were organizing the event.

The objective of the workshop was to attract researchers currently working on issues relating to the role of beliefs in experiments, including the analysis of scoring rules, belief formation, and model testing using subjective expectations.

April 26 - 27, 2012

Location: WZB (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung)

This workshop is sponsored by

CIRPÉE (Centre Interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques, et l’emploi), Université Laval

and

WZB (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung)

Organizers:

Charles Bellemare

CIRPÉE (Centre Interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques, et l’emploi), Université Laval

Sabine Kröger

CIRPÉE (Centre Interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques, et l’emploi), Université Laval

Dorothea Kübler

WZB (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung) & Technical University Berlin

For information and registration see: http://www.wzb.eu/en/veranstaltungen/formation-and-elicitation-of-beliefs-in-experiments

Program:

Thursday, April 26, 2012

11.30 – 12.20 Registration and Lunch Buffet

12.20 Conference opening

12.30 – 14.00 First Session

Aurélien Baillon (Erasmus University of Rotterdam) Testing ambiguity models through the measurement of probabilities for gains and losses

Carlos Alós-Ferrer (University of Konstanz) Fast or rational? A response-times study of Bayesian updating

14.00- 14.30 Coffee Break

14.30 – 16.45 Second Session

Frank Heinemann (Technical University Berlin) Measuring agents’ reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities

Kyle Hyndman (Maastricht University) Beliefs and (in)stability in normal-form games

Guy Mayraz (University of Oxford) Wishful thinking, confidence, and beliefs

16.45 – 17.15 Coffee Break

17.15 – 18.45 Third Session

Alexander Sebald (University of Copenhagen) Measuring nonlinear and heterogeneous guilt aversion

Guillaume Hollard (Paris School of Economics) Bridging the gap between actions and beliefs in an experimental game

19.30 Conference Dinner

Friday, April 27, 2012

09.00 – 11.15 Fourth Session

Stephanie Wang (University of Pittsburgh) Prediction in networks

Nicolas Treich (Toulouse School of Economics) Eliciting beliefs: proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes, and hedging

Li Hao (University of Arkansas) Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve participants: an experimental study

11.15 – 11.45 Coffee Break

11.45 – 13.15 Fifth Session

Joël van der Weele (Goethe University Frankfurt/M) A penny for your thoughts: incentives for interval elicitation

Gijs van der Kuilen (Tilburg University) Belief elicitation: a horse race among truth serums

13.15 Lunch Buffet

Participants

Carlos Alós-Ferrer University of Konstanz

Aurélien Baillon Erasmus University of Rotterdam

Charles Bellemare Université Laval, CIRPEE

Han Bleichrodt Erasmus University

Thomas Epper University of Zurich

Li Hao University of Arkansas

Frank Heinemann Technische Universität Berlin

Guillaume Hollard Paris School of Economics

Kyle Hyndman Maastricht University

Sabine Kröger Université Laval, CIRPEE

Dorothea Kübler Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin

Guy Mayraz University of Oxford

Alexander Sebald University of Copenhagen

Nicolas Treich Toulouse School of Economics

Joël van der Weele Goethe University Frankfurt/M

Gijs van de Kuilen Tilburg University

Stephanie Wang University of Pittsburgh

Georg Weizsäcker Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung