Research
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Although several publications and conference manuscripts are made available through this page, copyright laws apply. In general, copyright for publications resides with the publisher, and copyright for conference papers resides with the author(s). You may print one copy for personal use. For any other reproduction or distribution, please contact the copyright holder.
Table of contents (papers in reverse chronological order within categories)
Papers in submission
Other working papers and book manuscripts
Publications (articles, chapters in books, and books)
Government reports
Resting papers
Humor
Poetry
See the separate page on the data from the National JTPA Study for materials related to those data.
Papers in submission
Smith, Jeffrey, Alexander Whalley and Nathaniel Wilcox. 2020. "Are Program Participants Good Evaluators?" Under revision for Journal of Policy Analysis and Management.
IZA Discussion Paper No. 13584.
Dolton, Peter, and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. "The Impact of the UK New Deal for Lone Parents on Benefit Receipt." Under revision for Economic Journal.
Other working papers
Buhl-Wiggers, Julie, Jason Kerwin, Jeffrey Smith and Rebecca Thornton. 2021. "Estimating Treatment Effects on Teacher Value-Added" (was "Teacher Effectiveness in Africa: Longitudinal and Causal Estimates")
[Draft available on request]
Koremenos, Barbara, and Jeffrey Smith. 2014. "When to Select a Selection Model?"
[Draft available on request]
Smith, Jeffrey, and Jonas Staghoj. 2009. "Using Statistical Treatment Rules for Assignment of Participants in Labor Market Programs."
[Draft available on request]
Black, Dan, Jose Galdo, and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Evaluating the Regression Discontinuity Design Using Experimental Data."
[Draft available on request]
Lise, Jeremy, Shannon Seitz and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs."
Publications
Andersson, Fredrik, Harry Holzer, Julia Lane, David Rosenblum, and Jeffrey Smith. 2024. "Does Federally-Funded Training Work? Nonexperimental Estimates of WIA Training Impacts Using Longitudinal Data on Workers and Firms." Journal of Human Resources. Forthcoming (very slowly).
CESifo Working Paper No. 6071 (includes corrections and updates relative to the NBER paper)
Black, Dan, Lars Skipper, and Jeffrey Smith. 2023. "Firm Training" in Eric Hanushek, Stephen Machin, and Ludger Woessman, eds., Handbook of the Economics of Education, Volume 8. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Forthcoming.
CESifo Working paper No. 10286
Black, Dan, Joonhwi Joo, Robert LaLonde, Jeffrey Smith, and Evan Taylor. 2022. "Simple Tests for Selection Bias: Learning More from Instrumental Variables." Labour Economics 79: 102237
Published version on journal webpage (open access)
CESifo Working Paper No. 6392 (includes modest updates relative to the IZA paper)
HCEO Working Paper 2020-048 (Includes more than modest updates relative to the CESifo paper)
Buhl-Wiggers, Julie, Jason Kerwin, Juan Sebastian Munoz, Jeffrey Smith and Rebecca Thornton. 2022. "Some Children Left Behind: Variation in the Effects of an Educational Intervention." Journal of Econometrics. In Press.
Published (online) version on journal webpage (open access)
IZA Discussion Paper No. 13598.
Smith, Jeffrey. 2022. "Treatment Effect Heterogeneity." Evaluation Review 46(5): 652-677.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
IZA Discussion Paper No. 15151.
Smith, Jeffrey, Alexander Whalley, and Nathaniel Wilcox. 2021. Are Participants Good Evaluators?
Book page at W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Barnow, Burt, Lois Miller, and Jeffrey Smith. 2021. “Workforce Entry Including Career and Technical Education and Training.” in Jennie Romich, Timothy Smeeding, and Michael Strain (eds.) “What Has Happened to the American Working Class Since the Great Recession?” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 695: 260-274.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
Michaelides, Marios, Peter Mueser, and Jeffrey Smith. 2021. “Youth Unemployment and U.S. Employment Policy during the Great Recession.” Economic Inquiry 59(1): 162-185.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
IZA Discussion Paper No. 13324.
Dillon, Eleanor, and Jeffrey Smith. 2020. "The Consequences of Academic Match between Students and Colleges." Journal of Human Resources 55(3): 767-808.
Published version on journal webpage (open access)
NBER Working Paper No. 25069 [Approximates published version but includes the jokes.]
Smith, Jeffrey. 2018. "The Usefulness of Experiments" IZA World of Labor.
Published version on journal webpage (open access)
Levy, Helen, Edward Norton, and Jeffrey Smith. 2018. "Tobacco Regulation and Cost-Benefit Analysis: How Should We Value Forgone Consumer Surplus." American Journal of Health Economics 4(1): 1-25.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
Calonico, Sebastian, and Jeffrey Smith. 2017. "The Women of the National Supported Work Demonstration." Journal of Labor Economics.35(S1): S65-S97.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
Dillon, Eleanor, and Jeffrey Smith. 2017. "The Determinants of Mismatch Between Students and Colleges." Journal of Labor Economics 35(1): 45-66.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
Hirth, Richard, Teresa Gibson, Helen Levy, Jeffrey Smith, Sebastian Calonico, and Anup Das. 2016. "Long-term Health Spending Persistence Among the Privately Insured in the US." Fiscal Studies 37(3-4): 749-783..
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2016. "Employment and Training Programs," in Robert Moffit, ed., Means Tested Transfer Programs in the United States Volume II. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER. 127-234.
Smith, Jeffrey, and Arthur Sweetman. 2016. "Viewpoint: Estimating the Causal Effect of Programs and Policies." Canadian Journal of Economics.49(3): 871-905.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
IZA Discussion Paper No. 10108
McCall, Brian, Jeffrey Smith and Conny Wunsch. 2016. "Government-Sponsored Vocational Education for Adults" in Eric Hanushek, Stephen Machin, and Ludger Woessman, eds., Handbook of the Economics of Education, Volume 5. Amsterdam: North-Holland. 479-652.
Published version (requires series access)
Lise, Jeremy, Shannon Seitz and Jeffrey Smith. 2015. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental Data." IZA Journal of Labor Economics 4:16. [Special issue in honor of Dale Mortensen]
Published version at journal webpage (open access)
Hirth, Richard, Teresa Gibson, Helen Levy, Jeffrey Smith, Sebastian Calonico, and Anup Das. 2015. "New Evidence on the Persistence of High Health Spending." Medical Care Research and Review 72(3): 277-297.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Camplieti, Michele, Morley Gunderson, and Jeffrey Smith. 2014. "The Effect of Vocational Rehabilitation on the Employment Outcomes of Disability Insurance Beneficiaries: New Evidence from Canada." IZA Journal of Labor Policy 3:10.
Published version at journal webpage (open access)
Fitzenberger, Bernd, Michael Lechner, and Jeffrey Smith. 2013. "Estimation of Treatment Effects: Recent Developments and Applications." Empirical Economics 44(1): 1-12. [Introduction to a special issue on program evaluation edited by the authors]
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Special issue page (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich, Pascal Courty, Gerald Marschke, and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. The Performance of Performance Standards. Kalamazoo: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
Smith, Jeffrey. 2011. "Improving Impact Evaluation in Europe," in Douglas Besharov and Phoebe Cottingham, eds., The Workforce Investment Act: Implementation Experiences and Evaluation Findings. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 473-494.
Muriel, Alistair, and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. "On Educational Performance Measures" Fiscal Studies 32(2): 187-206.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey and Arthur Sweetman. 2010. “Putting the Evidence in Evidence-Based Policy” in Productivity Commission (ed.), Strengthening Evidence Based Policy in the Australian Federation, Volume 1: Proceedings. Canberra: Productivity Commission, 59-102.
Published version (open access)
Djebbari, Habiba and Jeffrey Smith. 2008. "Heterogeneous Program Impacts: Experimental Evidence from the PROGRESA Program." Journal of Econometrics. 145(1-2): 64-80.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Galdo, Jose, Jeffrey Smith and Dan Black. 2008. "Bandwidth Selection and the Estimation of Treatment Effects with Unbalanced Data." Annales d'Economie et Statistique, 91-92: 189-216.
Published version at journal webpage (open access)
Goldberg, Jessica and Jeffrey Smith. 2008. "The Effects of Education on Labor Market Outcomes." In Edward Fiske and Helen Ladd, eds. Handbook of Research in Education Finance and Policy. Routledge. 688-708.
Smith, Jeffrey. 2008. "Heterogeneity and Higher Education." In Michael S. McPherson and Morton Owen Schapiro, eds. College Success: What it Means and How to Make it Happen. New York: College Board. 131-144.
Lechner, Michael and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?" Labour Economics 14(2): 135-151.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Bushway, Shawn and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don't Know Can Hurt Us." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 23(4): 377-387.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Plesca, Miana and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Evaluating Multi-Treatment Programs: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act." Empirical Economics 32(2-3):491-528.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Black, Dan, Jose Galdo and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Design." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 97(2): 104-107.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Black, Dan and Jeffrey Smith. 2006. "Evaluating the Returns to College Quality with Multiple Proxies for Quality." Journal of Labor Economics 24(3): 701-728.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2005. "Does Matching Overcome LaLonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?" Journal of Econometrics 125(1-2):305-353.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Dehejia response at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2005. "Rejoinder." Journal of Econometrics 125(1-2):365-375.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Black, Dan, Kermit Daniel and Jeffrey Smith. 2005. College Quality and Wages in the United States." German Economic Review 6(3):415-443.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Black, Dan and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "How Robust is the Evidence on the Effects of College Quality? Evidence from Matching." Journal of Econometrics. 121(1):99-124.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Heckman, James and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program." Journal of Labor Economics. 22(2):243-298.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 2004. "Evaluating Local Economic Development Policies: Theory and Practice." In Alistar Nolan and Gina Wong, eds, Evaluating Local Economic and Employment Development How to Assess What Works among Programmes and Policies Paris: OECD, 287-332.
Barnow, Burt and Jeffrey Smith. 2004."Performance Management of U.S. Job Training Programs: Lessons from the Job Training Partnership Act." Public Finance and Management 4(3):247-287.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "Performance Management of U.S. Job Training Programs." In Christopher O'Leary, Robert Straits and Stephen Wandner (eds.), Job Training Policy in the United States. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 21-56.
Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2003. "What Does the Evidence from Employment and Training Programs Reveal About the Likely Effects of Ticket to Work on Service Provider Behavior?" In Kalman Rupp and Stephen Bell (eds.), Paying for Results in Vocational Rehabilitation. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 177-208.
Black, Dan, Jeffrey Smith, Mark Berger and Brett Noel. 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System."American Economic Review 93(4): 1313-1327.
Published version at JStor (requires JStor access)
Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. "The Performance of Performance Standards." Journal of Human Resources 37(4):778-811.
Published version at JStor (requires JStor access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments" in David Laidler (ed.), Renovating the Ivory Tower: Canadian Universities as Contributors to the Knowledge Economy. Toronto, C.D. Howe Institute, 265-280.
Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments on Chapter 10: Targeting Reemployment Services in Canada" in Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary and Stephen A. Wandner (eds.), Targeting Employment Services.Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 303-308.
Final Version
Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments on Chapter 11: Predicting Long-term Unemployment in Canada: Prospects and Policy Implications" in Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary and Stephen A. Wandner (eds.), Targeting Employment Services. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 329-336.
Final Version
Berger, Mark, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 2001. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services." In Michael Lechner and Friedhelm Pfeiffer (eds.), Econometric Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies. Heidelberg: Physica, 59-84.
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2001. "Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Performance of Propensity Score Matching Methods." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 91(2): 112-118.
Published version at JStor (requires JStor access)
Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 2000. "Racial Differences in the Effects of College Quality and Student Body Diversity on Wages." In Gary Orfield (ed.), Diversity Challenged. Cambridge: Harvard Education Publishing Group, 221-232.
Heckman, James, Neil Hohmann, Jeffrey Smith, with the assistance of Michael Khoo. 2000. "Substitution and Drop Out Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 115(2): 651-694.
Published version at JStor (requires JStor access)
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 2000. "The Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates: Evidence from the National JTPA Study." In David Blanchflower and Richard Freeman (eds.), Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 331-356.
Version With All Four Demographic Groups
Smith, Jeffrey. 2000. "Evaluating Active Labor Market Policies: Lessons from North America." In MittAB-Schwerpunktheft 2000: Evaluation aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Nuremberg: IAB, 345-356.
Smith, Jeffrey. 2000. "A Critical Survey of Empirical Methods for Evaluating Employment and Training Programs." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fuer Volkswirtschaft und Statistik 136(3): 247-268.
Published version (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, Robert LaLonde, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs." In Orley Ashenfelter and David Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3A. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1865-2097.
Final Version
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies." The Economic Journal 109(457): 313-348.
Published version (requires journal access)
McKinnish, Terra, Seth Sanders, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "Estimates of Effective Guarantees and Tax Rates in the AFDC Program for the Post-OBRA Period." Journal of Human Resources 34(2): 312-245.
Published version (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 1999. "New Deal Needs Some Figuring Out." The Guardian, August 2, pg. 19.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and Petra Todd. 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data." Econometrica 66(5): 1017-1098.
Published version (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, Lance Lochner, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1998. "The Effects of Government Policies on Human Capital Investment, Unemployment and Earnings Inequality." In Drittes Oeffentliches DAAK Symposium - Third Public GAAC Symposium: Publications of the GAAC, Symposia, Volume 5. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft.
Final Version
Heckman, James and Jeffrey Smith. 1998. "Evaluating the Welfare State." In Steiner Strom (ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial. Cambridge University Press for Econometric Society Monograph Series, 241-318.
Final Version
Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1998. "Accounting for Dropouts in Evaluations of Social Programs." Review of Economics and Statistics 80(1): 1-14.
Published version (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 1998. "Can Public Job Training Reduce Youth Unemployment?" Policy Options 19(3): 26-29.
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich, and Jeffrey Smith. 1997. "Assessing the Performance of Performance Standards in Public Bureaucracies." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 87(2): 389-395.
Published version (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, with the assistance of Nancy Clements. 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts." Review of Economic Studies 64(4): 487-535.
Published version (requires journal access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Review of `How Much is Your Vote Worth?' by Filip Palda." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 16(1): 162-165.
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Lance Lochner, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1997. "The Effects of Government Policy on Human Capital Investment and Wage Inequality." Chicago Policy Review 1(2): 1-40.
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1996. "Experimental and Nonexperimental Evaluation." Gunther Schmid, Jacqueline O'Reilly and Klaus Schoemann (eds.), International Handbook of Labour Market Policy and Evaluation. Brookfield, VT: Edward Elgar, 37-88.
Final Version
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1996. "Social Experiments: Theory and Evidence." In Oekonomie und Gesellschaft, Jahrbuch 13: Experiments in Economics - Experimente in der Oekonomie. Frankfurt/Main; New York: Campus Verlag, 186-213.
Final Version
Heckman, James, Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and Petra Todd. 1996. "Sources of Selection Bias in Evaluating Social Programs: An Interpretation of Conventional Measures and Evidence on the Effectiveness of Matching as a Program Evaluation Method." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 93(23): 13416-13420.
Published version (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1996. "What Do Bureaucrats Do? The Effects of Performance Standards and Bureaucratic Preferences on Acceptance into the JTPA Program." In Gary Libecap (ed.), Advances in the Study of Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Economic Growth: Reinventing Government and the Problem of Bureaucracy, Volume 7. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 191-217.
Final Version
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments." Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(2): 85-110.
Published version (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, Rebecca Roselius, and Jeffrey Smith. 1994. "U.S. Education and Training Policy: A Reevaluation of the Underlying Assumptions Behind the `New Consensus'." In L. C. Solomon and A. Levenson (eds.), Labor Markets, Employment Policy and Job Creation. Boulder: Westview Press, 83-121.
Hotz, V. Joseph, Robert Miller, Seth Sanders, and Jeffrey Smith. 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice." Review of Economic Studies 61(2): 265-289.
Published version (requires journal access)
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1993. "Assessing the Case for Randomized Evaluation of Social Programs." In Karsten Jensen and Per Kongshoj Madsen (eds.), Measuring Labour Market Measures - Evaluating the Effects of Active Labour Market Policy Initiatives. Copenhagen: Ministry of Labour, 35-95.
Final Version
Government Reports
Smith, Jeffrey, Yonah Drazen, Steven Cook, and Hilary Shager. 2020. Analysis of the Unemployment Insurance Waiting Period in Wisconsin. Institute for Research on Poverty Report for the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development.
Knight, Genevive, Stefan Speckesser, Jeffrey Smith, Peter Dolton and Joao Pedro Azevedo. 2006. Lone Parents Work Focused Interviews / New Deal for Lone Parents: Combined Evaluation and Further Net Impacts. UK Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No. 368.
[Published DWP Research Report]
Dolton, Peter, Joao Pedro Azevedo, and Jeffrey Smith. 2006. The Econometric Evaluation of the New Deal for Lone Parents. UK Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No. 356.
[Published DWP Research Report]
Black, Dan, Jeffrey Smith, Miana Plesca and Suzanne Shannon. 2003. Profiling UI Claimants to Allocate Reemployment Services: Evidence and Recommendations for the States: Final Report.
Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. The Labor Market Impacts of Adult Education and Training in Canada. Report Prepared for HRDC.
Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. Issues in the Design of Canada's Adult Education and Training Survey. Report Prepared for the HRDC.
Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. The Determinants of Participation in Adult Education and Training in Canada. Report Prepared for HRDC.
Smith, Jeffrey. 1992. The JTPA Selection Process: a Descriptive Analysis. Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor.
[Final Version]
Resting Papers
Smith, Jeffrey and Arthur Sweetman. 2001. "Improving the Evaluation of Employment and Training Programs in Canada." Paper Presented at HRDC Conference on Evaluation Methodologies, Ottawa. [Draft] (The content is almost all applicable to the US and UK as well as Canada).
Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 1997. "College Quality and the Wages of Young Men." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Measuring Earnings Levels Among the Poor: Evidence from Two Samples of JTPA Eligibles." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Measuring Earnings Dynamics Among the Poor: Evidence from Two Samples of JTPA Eligibles." [Draft]
Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 1995. "College Characteristics and the Wages of Young Women." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1990. "The Determinants of Voter Behavior in the Oregon Marijuana Initiative." [Draft]
Humor
Smith, Jeffrey. 2007. "The Politician's Guide to the Returns to Schooling." (written in response to an over-zealous editor)
Smith, Jeffrey and Kermit Daniel. 1990. "Economics to Sociology Phrase Book."
Post on Economic Sociology and Political Economy blog
Poetry
Smith, Jeffrey. 1985. "Ode to Chicago." [Final version of a poem that captures my thoughts about Chicago shortly after arriving for graduate school]