Research

Articles:

"Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa" (with Ulrich Eberle and Mathias Thoenig), Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming. Coverage in World Bank Blog, International Crisis Group. 


"Medication Against Conflict" (with Andrea Berlanda, Matteo Cervellati, Elena Esposito and Uwe Sunde), Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Re-posted in VoxDev. Coverage in VOX-Webcast.


"Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger" (with Patrick Premand), American Economic Review: Insights, 2024, 6: 137-53. Coverage in Word Bank Blog, Socialprotection.org, AEA Featured charts. 


"Mediation, Military and Money: The Promises and Pitfalls of Outside Interventions to End Armed Conflicts, Journal of Economic Literature, 2024, 62: 155-95. Coverage in National Affairs.


"Ethnic Conflicts and the Informational Dividend of Democracy" (with Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti and Mathias Thoenig), Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024, 22: 73-116.


"Combating COVID-19 with Charisma: Evidence on Governor Speeches and Physical Distancing in the United States" (with Ulrich Thy Jensen, Oliver Bornet, Daniel Carron, Phillip Garner, Dimitra Loupi and John Antonakis),  Leadership Quarterly, 2023, 101702. Coverage in Voice of America.


"Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of UK's Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity" (with Andrea Marcucci and Alessandro Saia), Economic Journal, 2023, 133: 1510-1536. Coverage in National Affairs.


"Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily" (with Gema Lax-Martinez and Alessandro Saia),  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2022, 202: 361-371.


"Ethnic Violence Across Space" (with Hannes Mueller and David Schoenholzer), Economic Journal, 2022, 132: 709-740. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Media coverage in Le Temps.


"Globalization mitigates the risk of conflict caused by strategic territory" (with Quentin Gallea), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 22 September 2021. Media coverage in Tages-Anzeiger, Berner Zeitung, Der Bund, Der Landbote, Berner Oberländer, Basler Zeitung, hecimpact. This article has been among the winners of the International Geneva Award 2021. The following short video provides a concise summary of the piece.


"Impact of COVID-19 and Health System Performance on Vaccination Hesitancy: Evidence from a Two-Leg Representative Survey in the UK", (with Geraldine Blanchard-Rohner, Bruno Caprettini and Joachim Voth), Journal of Virus Eradication, 2021, 7: 100044. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Media coverage in Atlantico, Eurohealth / WHO.


"Saving the world from your couch: The heterogeneous medium-run benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns on air pollution" (with Jean-Philippe Bonardi, Quentin Gallea, Dimitrija Kalanoski, Rafael Lalive, Raahil Madhok, Frederik Noack, and Tommaso Sonno), Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16: 074010. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Coverage in 24 Heures, Global News, InfoNews, Radio Canada Internacional, The Conversation, National Post, Energy in Demand blog, I by IMD, Guelph Today, Le Temps, Heidi News, higgs, Air Quality News, VIRAL, Atlantico.


"The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities" (with Mathias Thoenig), Annual Review of Economics, 2021, 13: 111-31. Media coverage in Nada es gratis.


"Ethnolinguistic Diversity and Urban Agglomeration" (with Ulrich Eberle, J. Vernon Henderson and Kurt Schmidheiny), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 29 June 2020. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Media coverage in myScience, ScienceDaily, ERR (Estonian public broadcasting), LA Network, Phys.org, hecimpact.


"The Case for Reopening Economies by Sector" (with Jean-Philippe Bonardi, Arturo Bris, Marius Brülhart, Jean-Pierre Danthine, Eric Jondeau and Mathias Thoenig), Harvard Business Review, 19 May 2020. Media coverage in FTE news magazine, Istoe Dinheiro, The National Memo, VOX.


"The Violent Legacy of Conflict: Evidence on Asylum Seekers, Crime and Public Policy in Switzerland" (with Mathieu Couttenier, Veronica Preotu and Mathias Thoenig), American Economic Review, 2019, 109: 4378-4425. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Media coverage in RTS (Swiss National TV), Atlantico, Le Monde, La vie économique / Die Volkswirtschaft, Le Soir, Cash, AEA Highlights, Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), MSN, Cato Blog, elcato, ILO.


"Can Power-Sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland" (with Hannes Mueller), Economic Policy, 2018, 33: 447-484. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Media coverage in Finanz und Wirtschaft, VOX, hecimpact, Süddeutsche Zeitung.


"Knowledge is power: A theory of information, income, and welfare spending" (with Jo Thori Lind), Economica, 2017, 84: 611-646. Additional results are provided in the following Online Appendix. Media coverage in National Affairs, Bookforum. 


"Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence from the Great War of Africa" (with Michael König, Mathias Thoenig and Fabrizio Zilibotti), Econometrica, 2017, 85: 1093-1132. - A summary is provided in the following VoxDev column. Media coverage in RSI Rete Due (Swiss National Radio), VOX, NBER Reporter, RAND report for U.S. Secretary of Defense.


"This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa", (with Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier and Mathias Thoenig), American Economic Review, 2017, 107: 1564-1610. A summary is provided in the following VOX / VoxDev column. Media coverage in The Economist, Sverige Radio (Swedish National Radio), SWR2 (German National Radio), Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), Africa Times, Finanz und Wirtschaft, Chris Blattman Blog, AEA Research Highlights, Le Monde, Monthly Review, AEA Top Ten Research Highlights, The Conversation, The Conversation (2nd article), France Info, Le Soir, Jeune Afrique, Alternatives Economiques, FREE Policy Briefs, Le Temps, Revue automobile, Austria Press Agency, Réformés, Diplomatie, CNRS le journal, Climate Policy Initiative, Fuhem, Dialogues économiques, Winnipeg Free Press, The Conversation (3d article), Just Security, espacio publico.


"Resource Concentration and Civil Wars" (with Massimo Morelli), Journal of Development Economics, 2015, 117: 32-47. Media coverage in Chris Blattman Blog, United States Institute of Peace, hecimpact, National Affairs, VOX,  Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ),  The Global Dispatches, Finanz und Wirtschaft, The Conversation, The Mandarin, UPI.


"Strategic Mass Killings" (with Joan Esteban and Massimo Morelli), Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 123 (5): 1087-1132.  Additional results are provided in the following Online Appendix. Media coverage in Chris Blattman Blog, hecimpact, Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ).


"The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars" (with Francesco Caselli and Massimo Morelli), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2015, 130 (1): 267-315. Additional results are provided in the following Supplementary Appendix. A summary is provided in the following VOX column. Media coverage in Le Temps, Foreign Policy, Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), The Global Dispatches, Finanz und Wirtschaft, Observer Research Foundation.


"Persuasion, Binary Choice, and the Costs of Dishonesty" (with Roland Hodler and Simon Loertscher), Economics Letters, 2014, 124 (2): 195-198.


"War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict" (with Mathias Thoenig and Fabrizio Zilibotti), Review of Economic Studies, 2013, 80 (3): 1114-1147. Media coverage in RSI Rete Due (Swiss National Radio), hecimpact, United States Institute of Peace, VOX, Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ),  The Global Dispatches, Finanz und Wirtschaft, Huffington Post, La vie économique / Die Volkswirtschaft.


"Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda" (with Mathias Thoenig and Fabrizio Zilibotti), Journal of Economic Growth, 2013, 18 (3): 217-252. Media coverage in Le Monde, hecimpact, RSI Rete Due (Swiss National Radio), Finanz und Wirtschaft, UN Peacebuilding Fund.

 

"War and Natural Resource Exploitation" (with Frederick van der Ploeg), European Economic Review, 2012, 56 (8): 1714-1729. Media coverage in VOX,  The Global Dispatches. Reprinted in the International Library of Critical Writings in Economics.


"Electoral terms and terrorism" (with Roland Hodler), Public Choice, 2012, 150: 181-193.


"Reputation, Group Structure and Social Tensions", Journal of Development Economics, 2011, 96: 188-199. 


"The Political Economy of Imperialism, Decolonization, and Development" (with Erik Gartzke), British Journal of Political Science, 2011, 41(3): 525-556. Media coverage in VOX,  The Global Dispatches. 


"Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage" (with Roland Hodler and Simon Loertscher), Journal of Public Economics, 2010, 94(9-10): 761-767.


"Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War" (with Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler),  Oxford Economic Papers, 2009, 61(1): 1-29. Media coverage in International Crisis Group, Berliner Republik, Somalilandpress, Le Temps, Harvard International Review, bpb, World Development Report, Prachatai, Washington Post, Contretemps. Reprinted in Conflict, Political Accountability and Aid.


"Democracy, Development and Conflict" (with Paul Collier), Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, 6 (2-3): 531-40. A non-technical summary for FERDI. Media coverage in International Crisis Group, hecimpact, Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), Vanguard News, Business Day. Reprinted in Conflict, Political Accountability and Aid.


"Blood and Ink! The Common-Interest-Game Between Terrorists and the Media" (with Bruno S. Frey), Public Choice, 2007, 133 (1-2): 129-145. Media coverage in The Washington Post, CBS News, The Guardian, Economist's View, Diario Economico, Cincinnati Post, Frontier Post, Milano Finanza, Crethiplethi Blog, jcdurbant Blog, The Conversation, The International Post Magazine, Economie matin, Contrepoints.


"Protecting Cultural Monuments from Terrorism" (with Bruno S. Frey), Defence and Peace Economics, 2007, 18 (3): 245-252.


"Beach Holiday in Bali or East-Timor? Why Conflict Can Lead to Under- and Overexploitation of Natural Resources", Economics Letters, 2006, 92 (1): 113-117.

(Hand-)book chapters:


"Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development", in Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, forthcoming, Springer Nature, Berlin.



"Championing the green energy transition without playing into the hands of populists" (with Christian Gollier) in Christian Gollier and Dominic Rohner (eds.), Peace Not Pollution: How going green can tackle climate change and toxic politics, 2023, CEPR eBook, Paris.



"Clean Energy, Clean Politics: The key importance of decentralizing, transparency and local empowerment for the green transition" in Christian Gollier and Dominic Rohner (eds.), Peace Not Pollution: How going green can tackle climate change and toxic politics, 2023, CEPR eBook, Paris.



"Nation Building: What could possibly go wrong?" (with Ekaterina Zhuravskaya) in Dominic Rohner and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (eds.), Nation Building: Big Lessons from Successes and Failures, 2023, CEPR eBook, Paris.



"Building Trust, Not Bombs: Micro-Foundations of Contact Theory" (with Mathias Thoenig and Fabrizio Zilibotti) in Dominic Rohner and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (eds.), Nation Building: Big Lessons from Successes and Failures, 2023, CEPR eBook, Paris.



"Power Sharing, Conflict and State Building" (with Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh) in Dominic Rohner and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (eds.), Nation Building: Big Lessons from Successes and Failures, 2023, CEPR eBook, Paris.



"A silver lining: Increased urgency for the green transition in Europe" (with Luis Garicano and Beatrice Weder di

Mauro), in Luis Garicano, Dominic Rohner and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (eds.), Global Economic Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Supply Chains and Sustainability, 2022, CEPR eBook, Paris.

 


"Global Economic Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Introduction" (with Luis Garicano and Beatrice Weder di Mauro), in Luis Garicano, Dominic Rohner and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (eds.), Global Economic Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Supply Chains and Sustainability, 2022, CEPR eBook, Paris.


"How to Curb Conflict: Policy Lessons from the Economic Literature", in Courtney Fung, Björn Gehrmann, Rachel Madenyika, and Jason Tower (eds.), New Paths and Policies Towards Conflict Prevention: Chinese and Swiss Perspectives, 2021, London: Routledge.


"Natural Resources and Conflict", The New Palgrave Dictionary in Economics, 2018. Media coverage in OECD Development Matters. 


"The Economics of Conflict and Peace", in Robert Scott and Marlis Buchmann (eds.), Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2017, Hoboken NJ: John Wiley & Sons.


"Incentives and Constraints for Mass Killings: A Game-Theoretic Approach" (with Joan Esteban and Massimo Morelli), in Charles Anderton and Jurgen Brauer (eds.), Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Prevention, 2016, chapter 7, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Working paper version here.


"Explaining and predicting future environmental scarcities and conflicts" (with Urs Luterbacher, Ellen Wiegandt and Sébastien di Iorio), in Frank Whelon Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Solomon W. Polachek, and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (eds.), Predicting the Future in Science, Economics and Politics, 2014, chapter 7, Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar. 


Working papers:

"Feeding the Tigers: Remittances and Conflict in Sri Lanka" (with Barthélémy Bonadio, Andrei Levchenko and Mathias Thoenig), Working Paper. 


"The Economics of Nation-Building: Methodological Toolkit and Policy Lessons" (with Ekaterina Zhuravskaya ),  CEPR Working Paper. 


"The Democracy Dividend: How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health Outcomes" (with Federico Maggio and Alessandro Saia),  CEPR Working Paper. 


"Price and Prejudice: Housing Rents Reveal Racial Animus" (with Marius Brülhart, Gian-Paolo Klinke, Andrea Marcucci and Mathias Thoenig),  CEPR / CESifo Working Paper. Coverage in VOX-Talk.


"Hidden Hostility: Donor Attention and Political Violence" (with Siwan Anderson, Patrick Francois and Rogerio Santarrosa), WIDER Working Paper 147/2022. Coverage in VOX-Talk, ReliefWeb.


"Hungry Professors? Decision Biases Are Less Widespread than Previously Thought" (with Katja Bergonzoli, Laurent Bieri, and Christian Zehnder), Pre-print. 


"Education and Conflict: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia" (with Alessandro Saia), 2019.  A summary is provided in the following VOX column and in OECD Development Matters. Podcast at VOX Talks. Media coverage in World Economic Forum blog, Africa Times, Continental Telegraph, VoxDev.


"Stay, Split or Strike: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict" (with Joan Esteban, Sabine Flamand, and Massimo Morelli), 2020. A summary provided in a short movie in Bocconi Knowledge. 


"Power in the Pipeline" (with Quentin Gallea and Massimo Morelli), 2022.