PUBLICATIONS
The Effects of Alcohol on the Consumption of Hard Drugs: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997. Health Economics (April 2015), Vol. 24(4)
Abstract:This paper estimates the effect of alcohol use on consumption of hard drugs using the exogenous decrease in the cost of accessing alcohol that occurs when individuals reach the minimum legal drinking age. Using a regression discontinuity design and the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997, I find that all measures of alcohol consumption, when alcohol initiation increase discontinuously at age 21. I also find evidence that consumption of hard drugs decreased by 1.5 to 2 percentage points and the probability of initiating the use of hard drugs decreased by 1 percentage point at age 21, while the intensity of use among users remained unchanged. These estimates are robust to a variety of specifications and also remain robust across subsamples.Is There a Stepping Stone Effect in Drug Use? Separating State Dependence from Unobserved Heterogeneity Within and Across Illicit Drugs . Journal of Econometrics (January 2015) Vol 184(1). Pp.193-207
Online AppendixAbstractEmpirically, teenagers who use soft drugs are more likely to use hard drugs in the future. This pattern can be explained by a causal effect (i.e., state dependence between drugs or stepping-stone effects) or by unobserved characteristics that make people more likely to use both soft and hard drugs (i.e., correlated unobserved heterogeneity). I estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of alcohol, marijuana, and hard drug use over multiple years, and separately identify the contributions of state dependence (within and between drugs) and unobserved heterogeneity. I find statistically significant "stepping-stone" effects from softer to harder drugs, and conclude that alcohol, marijuana and hard drugs are complements in utility.Do Nighttime Driving Restrictions Reduce Criminal Participation Among Teenagers? Evidence from Graduated Driver Licensing (joint with Daniel Litwok). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (Spring 2016) Vol 35(2). Pp. 306-332
Online AppendixFeatured Article in the issue of JPAMAbstractTo date, all 50 states and the District of Columbia have a three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) system that phases in driving privileges for teenagers. GDL laws effectively impose a statutory driving curfew and a limitation on the number of passengers in motor vehicles. Both the timing of motor vehicle access and a limitation on the peer influences available in a motor vehicle could significantly affect the production of criminal behavior. Using the Uniform Crime Reports 1995-2011 and a triple differences approach, we find that the implementation of GDL decreased criminal participation by six percent among teenagers between the ages of 16 and 17, as measured by arrests. These effects were larger in magnitude in states where the nighttime driving curfew is required for a longer period of time. Also, GDL plays a particularly important role in reducing crime in periods of low gasoline prices, when teen driver prevalence would have been high otherwise. These results suggest that there is another benefit to states for adopting GDL laws and provide insight into the production of teenage crime.The Intergenerational Effects of Education on Delinquency (joint with Aaron Chalfin) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (March 2019) Vol 159. Pp 553-571
Online AppendixAbstractChildren of less educated parents are more likely to engage in delinquent behavior. One explanation for this is that better educated parents are inherently more likely to raise children in ways that are less conducive to criminal participation. Alternatively, additional parental education may change parents’ behavior in ways that reduces their children’s propensity to commit crime. Using data from the NLSY79 and variation induced by changes in compulsory schooling laws in the United States, we find that an increase in parental education reduces delinquent behavior among the children of those exposed to compulsory schooling laws. This research is the first to uncover evidence of an intergenerational effect of education on crime in the United States. We conclude that previous analyses of compulsory schooling laws – and investments in education more generally – appreciably underestimate the full benefits of investments in education.The Effect of Parental Education on Children's Drug and Alcohol Use (joint with Aaron Chalfin), AER Papers and Proceedings (May, 2018) Vol 108 pp.373-378
AbstractThis research is the first to uncover evidence of an intergenerational effect of education on substance use in the United States. Using data from the NLSY79 and variation in education induced by changes in compulsory schooling laws, we study the effect of parental education on children’s use of drugs and alcohol. We find that an increase in parental education decreases alcohol consumption – binge drinking, in particular – and has no effect on marijuana consumption among youth. Given the high social costs associated with alcohol abuse, we conclude that previous research on education may appreciably underestimate the benefits of investments in education.Local Natural Resources and Crime: Evidence from Oil Price Fluctuations in Texas (joint with Rodney Andrews), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (July 2018) Vol 151, pp 123-142
AbstractWe exploit plausibly exogenous changes in the value of reserves in Texas's giant oil fields to determine the impact of crime in Texas counties that have reserves. Texas provides an ideal setting for this research strategy. First, Texas has the largest number of giant oil fields. Second, Texas's giant oil fields possess the greatest remaining oil potential. Third, giant oil fields are dispersed throughout the state. We find that a 1% increase in the value of oil reserves increases murder by 0.16%, robbery by 0.55% and larceny by 0.18%. Using the estimated elasticities, an average increase in the value of oil reserves (26% increase in the value of reserves) results in a 4.15% increase in murder rates, 8% increase in robbery and 4.7% increase in larceny. These effects are not trivial. We explore potential mechanisms that could be driving this increase in crime and find that an increase in the value of local oil reserves improves the local economic conditions, increases the share of young males, and increases the share of individuals residing in group quarters (e.g. temporary worker housing) of its county with no effect on the local economic conditions, demographic changes or crime rates of adjacent countiesGraduated Driver Licensing and Teen Fertility , Economics and Human Biology (December 2019) Vol 35, pp 51-62
AbstractThis paper evaluates the effect of implementing nighttime driving curfews and passenger restrictions mandated by graduated driver licensing (GDL) on teen fertility. Both components of GDL potentially restrict the freedom and mobility of minor drivers by requiring adult supervision, and therefore reduces opportunities to become pregnant. Using birth data from the National Vital Statistics (NVSS) and a triple differences approach, I find that the implementation of “tough” GDL decreased fertility by 3% -4% among mothers between the ages of 16 and 18. This effect is driven by the states that require driving curfews for at least a year before teenagers can obtain their unrestricted drivers license.More Sneezing Less Crime? Seasonal Allergies, Transitory Costs and the Market for Offenses (joint with Shooshan Danagoulian and Aaron Chalfin) Journal of Health Economics (December, 2019) Vol 68, 102230
AbstractThe neoclassical economic model of crime envisions crime as a gamble undertaken by a rational individual who is weighing the costs and benefits of offending at the margin. A large literature estimates the sensitivity of crime to policy inputs that shift the cost of offending such as police and prisons. In this paper, we point out that participants in the market for offenses also respond to transitory changes in situational factors and that these are in constant flux. We consider the responsiveness of crime to a pervasive and common health shock which we argue shifts costs and benefits for offenders and victims: seasonal allergies. Leveraging daily variation in city-specific pollen counts, we present novel evidence that violent crime declines in U.S. cities on days in which the local pollen count is unusually high and that these effects are driven by residential violence. While past literature suggests that property crimes have more instrumental motives, require planning, and hence are particularly sensitive to permanent changes in the cost and benefits of crime, we find evidence that violence may be especially sensitive to situational factorsImmigration Enforcement, Crime and Demography: Evidence from the Arizona Legal Workers Act , (joint with Aaron Chalfin) Criminology & Public Policy (May 2020) Vol 19 (2)
Best Paper Award for Earlier-Career Scholars from Criminology & Public PolicyAbstractThis study leverages a remarkable natural experiment created by recent legislation in Arizona to study the impact on crime of a large decline in the state's foreign-born Mexican population. I show that this population decreased by as much as 20 percent in the wake of the passage of a broad-based "E-verify" law requiring employers to verify the immigration status of new employees. In contrast to previous literature. I find evidence that immigrants are associated with property crimes. However, results are driven by especially large population declines among young men and, as such, the effects are purely compositional.Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs, Opioid Abuse and Crime (joint with Dhaval Dave and Brady Horn) Southern Economic Journal (January 2021) Vol 87 (3)
Georgescu-Roegen Prize for the best article published in Southern Economic Journal awarded by the Southern Economic Association (SEA) AbstractIn this paper we study the broader impact of prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) on crime. In response to the substantial increase in opioid use and abuse in the United States, PDMPs have been implemented in virtually all states to collect, monitor, and analyze prescription opioid data with the goal of preventing the abuse and diversion of controlled substances. Using information on offenses known to law enforcement and arrests from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), combined with a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we find that PDMPs reduced overall crime by 5%. Overall, these results provide additional evidence that prescription drug monitoring programs are an effective social policy tool to mitigate the negative consequences of opioid misuse and can have important spillover effects into other non-health related domains such as crime.Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime.. (joint with Catherine Maclean and Keisha Solomon) Journal of Urban Economics (May 2022) Vol 129
AbstractWe estimate the effect of local access to office-based mental healthcare on crime. We leverage variation in the number of mental healthcare offices within a county over the period 1999 to 2014 in a two-way fixed-effects model. We find that increases in the number of mental healthcare offices reduce crime. In particular, ten additional offices in a county reduces crime by 1.6 crimes per 10,000 residents, or 0.4% relative to the sample mean. Adjusting crimes based on their social costs implies larger effect sizes: ten additional offices reduces crime costs per capita by 2.2%. These findings suggest an unintended benefit from expanding the office-based mental healthcare workforce: reductions in crimeCan Sanctuary Policies Reduce Domestic Violence? , (joint with Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes) American Law and Economics Review (Spring, 2022) Vol 24(1), pp. 116-170
Abstract Domestic violence remains a serious public problem, especially in Hispanic communities, where one in three women are victims of domestic violence in their lifetimes. Yet, less than 50 percent report the incidents, alluding to fear they might be asked about their immigration status or that of relatives and friends as the main motive for not reporting. We examine the extent to which the adoption of sanctuary policies, which limit the cooperation of local law enforcement with federal immigration authorities, affect domestic homicide rates –a crime rarely unreported. We find that sanctuary policies help lower the rate of domestic homicides with a Hispanic female victim, especially in counties with higher immigration enforcement and in those with more female officers. In contrast, they seem less effective in curtailing domestic homicide rates among Hispanic women in counties with mandated arrest laws in place. Overall, the results are suggestive of the protective role of sanctuary policies in Hispanic communities.Office-based mental healthcare and juvenile arrests (joint with Thanh Lu and Catherine Maclean) Health Economics Vol 31(Issue S2): 69-91
AbstractWe estimate the effect of local access to office-based mental healthcare on juvenile arrest outcomes. We leverage variation in the number of offices of physicians and non-physicians specializing in mental healthcare in a county over the period 1999 to 2016 in a two-way fixed-effects model. Office-based treatment is the most common modality of mental healthcare received by juveniles. We find that ten additional offices of physicians and non-physicians specializing in mental healthcare in a county leads a decrease of 2.3% to 2.6% in the per capita costs to society of juvenile arrest. Findings are similar for arrest rates although often less precise, which suggests that accounting for social costs is empirically important. Crime imposes substantial costs on society and individuals, and interventions during early life can have more pronounced effects than those received at later stages, therefore our results imply increased juvenile access to mental healthcare may have an unintended benefit for the current and future generations.The Intergenerational Effects of the Vietnam Draft on Risky Behaviors. (Joint with Alvaro Mezza), Journal of Labor Economics Vol 43(1)
AbstractWe exploit the natural experiment provided by the Vietnam lottery draft to evaluate the intergenerational effect of fathers’ draft eligibility on children’s propensity to engage in risky health behaviors during adolescence using the NLSY97. Draft eligibility increases measures of substance use, intensity of use, decreases age of initiation—particularly for marijuana—and increases measures of delinquency. We explore potential mechanisms: Draft eligibility affects paternal parenting styles and attitudes towards the respondent, environmental aspects, and even maternal factors. Results are robust to alternative specifications and falsification diagnostics. Our results indicate that previous analyses underestimate the full negative effects of draft eligibility.Driving Under the Influence of Allergies: The Effect of Seasonal Pollen on Traffic Fatalities. (Joint with Shooshan Danagoulian), Journal of Health Economics Vol 99, paper 102945
AbstractTraffic fatalities are the leading cause of mortality in the United States despite being preventable. While several policies have been introduced to improve traffic safety and their effects have been well documented, the role of transitory health shocks or situational factors at explaining variations in fatal traffic accidents has been understudied. Exploring daily variation in city-specific pollen counts, this study finds novel evidence that traffic fatalities increase on days in which the local pollen count is particularly high. We find that the effects are present in accidents involving private vehicles and occur most frequently on the weekends, suggesting potentially the missed opportunity to avoid these fatalities. We do not find similar effects for fleet vehicles. These findings remain robust to alternative specifications and alternative definitions of high pollen count. Taken together, this study finds evidence that a prevalent and transitory exogenous health-shock, namely pollen allergies, increases traffic fatalities. Given our lack of evidence of avoidance, these effects are not mechanical and are likely driven by cognitive impairments that arise as a result of seasonal allergies.Treatment for Mental Health and Substance Use: Spillovers to Police Safety (Joint with Thanh Lu, Catheine Maclean, and Alberto Ortega) NBER WP31391, Forthcoming at Journal of Human Resources
AbstractWe study the effect of community access to behavioral health (mental health and substance use disorders) treatment on police officer safety, which we proxy with on- duty assaults on officers. Combining agency-level data on police officer on-duty assaults and county-level data on the number of treatment centers within the community that offer behavioral health treatment, we estimate a two-way fixed-effects regressions and find that that an additional four centers per county (average increase) leads to a 1.3% reduction per police agency in on-duty assaults against police officers. Previously established benefits of access to treatment on behavioral health extend to the work environment of police officers.WORKING PAPERS
AbstractIn 1994, California implemented "Three Strikes and You-re Out" laws that enhance the sentence length for repeat violent offenders. I use data from the 1990-2006 State Court Processing Statistics database and a difference-in-difference research design to compare the change in the likelihood of plea bargaining by violent offenders after the passage of Three Strikes Laws, relative to the trend among non-violent offenders. The results show that the introduction of the California Three Strikes laws significantly decreases the number of criminal cases that are being settled with a plea bargain among potential first-strike offenders, imposing a potentially costly burden on the California legal systemCOVID-19 Has Strengthened The Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Domestic Violence (Joint with Aaron Chalfin and Shooshan Danagoulian) NBER WP28523
Media coverage, Washington PostAbstractRecent scholarship documents a marked increase in domestic violence since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study evaluates an important mechanism behind the increase in domestic violence during the COVID- 19 pandemic: an increase in the riskiness of alcohol consumption. We combine 911 call data with high-resolution microdata on visits to bars and liquor stores in Detroit from January 2019 - July 2020. Using daily zip code measures, we conduct regression analysis of violence-related emergency calls on visits to alcohol outlets. We find that the strength of the relationship between domestic violence and visits to liquor stores more than doubled from 0.02 to 0.06 starting in March 2020, with little evidence with respect to non-domestic assaults. Our study provides evidence that stay-at-home orders changed the relationship between alcohol and domestic violence, in that it is alcohol consumption at home that is a driver of domestic violence. As stay-at-home orders remain an effective containment tool of SARS-COV2, alcohol consumption at home must explicitly addressed to forestall an epidemic of domestic violence.Everything in Moderation: Separating State Dependence from Unobserved Heterogeneity Between Alcohol and Employment , Under review. NBER WP 31453
AbstractPrevious literature presents mixed evidence on the effect of alcohol consumption on labor market outcomes. Due to limitations of available structural methods that model state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity, previous literature has not separately identified the causal pathways linking moderate versus heavy alcohol use to employment. This study develops a multiple-equation dynamic discrete choice ordered logit model, separately identifying the contribution of state dependence (within and between outcomes) and unobserved heterogeneity. Using this newly-developed methodology, this study finds that moderate alcohol use increases employment, indicating that policies that target alcohol consumption separately by dosage level may be beneficial to employment.Losing Medicaid and Crime (Joint with Thanh Lu, Catherine Maclean and Alberto Ortega) Under review, NBER WP 32227
AbstractWe study the impact of losing health insurance on criminal activity by leveraging one of the most substantial Medicaid disenrollments in U.S. history, which occurred in Tennessee in 2005 and lead to 190,000 non–elderly and non–disabled adults without dependents unexpectedly losing coverage. Using police agency–level data and a difference–in–differences approach, we find that this mass insurance loss increased total crime rates with particularly strong effects for non–violent crime. We test for several potential mechanisms and find that our results may be explained by economic stability and access to healthcare.Intergenerational Spillovers of Driving Privileges for Undocumented Immigrants: Evidence from Early Childhood Education (Joint with Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Genti Kostandini, Tianyuan Luo) , NBER WP 32723. Under review
AbstractWe study the intergenerational impact of granting driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants on early childhood education (ECE) participation among their U.S.-born children. Using a difference-in-differences framework applied to American Community Survey data from 2005–2019, we find that these policies increase preschool enrollment by 6% among Hispanic children with likely undocumented parents. Effects are larger when mothers are the likely license recipients. We find no effects among children of documented Hispanic parents or in placebo samples. Mechanism analyses show increased vehicle ownership, solo commuting, maternal labor earnings, and English proficiency, suggesting reduced logistical and economic barriers. These findings underscore how inclusive mobility policies can improve educational equity and long-run integration outcomes.
Couch-Locked with the Munchies: Effects of Recreational Marijuana Laws on Exercise and Nutrition (Joint with Shooshan Danagoulian, Timothy Hodge, and Thomas Wilk) NBER WP 33176. Under Review
Abstract
As recreational marijuana laws (RML) expanded marijuana access over the last decade, still very little is known about the impact of RML on two costly social behaviors that may arise as a consequence of marijuana consumption: unhealthy eating (i.e. munchies), and sedentary lifestyle (i.e. couch-lock). Using Nielsen IQ Consumer Panel data, we find that the passage of RML led to an increase in the number of grocery store trips that involved “junk food”, as well as the amount of respective “junk food” spending. This effect is particularly driven by an increase in snacks, cookies, and candy. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), we find that the passage of RML led to a decrease in exercise, particularly driven by a reduction in cardio, and suggestive evidence of more time spent at home. The findings are robust to alternative methods that take into account the staggered implementation of RML. These results suggest that RMLs have an adverse effect on health through “munchies” and “couch-lock,” which pose a significant public health challenge to diet and lifestyle-related chronic conditions.Paid Sick Leave and Maltreatment (Joint with Catherine Maclean and Alberto Ortega) NBER WP 33758. Under Review
AbstractChild maltreatment is a major public health concern in the United States. Maltreatment is associated with a range of poor health, developmental, and economic outcomes for child victims. In this study, we examine the impact of recent state paid sick leave mandates on child maltreatment reports over the period 2011-2022. Paid sick leave mandates confer financially protected time that can be used for health and family responsibilities as well as for actions such as court hearings that can reduce exposure to domestic violence. These benefits may also reduce maltreatment reports. Using difference-in-differences and event-study methods, we find that child maltreatment reports decline by 11% following the adoption of a state paid sick leave mandate. An analysis of mechanisms suggests that increases in parental and child health, family economic standing, childcare provision, and healthcare are important channels linking paid sick leave mandates to child maltreatment reports.WORK IN PROGRESS
More Girls, Fewer Blues: Peer Gender Ratios and Adolescent Mental Health (Joint with Maria, Zhu)
Vulnerability of the U.S. public safety system: Evidence from micro-shocks (Joint with Shooshan Danagoulian, Catherine Maclean, and Alberto Ortega)
MEDIA
Marijuana Leads to the Munchies and `Couchlock', Chicago Booth Review (January 13, 2025)