Projects
Sistema de pronóstico y de mitigación de la composición química de la atmósfera para la toma de decisiones: aplicación a la calidad del aire y la industria de la energía solar, Coordinating Principal Investigator, 2024-2025. ANID-FONDEF ID23I10219. Director: Nicolás Huneeus.
The influence of the Amundsen–Bellingshausen and Weddell low pressure centers on the recent and future climate variability of the Antarctic Peninsula, PI, 2021-2022. ANID-FONDECYT 11200101.
The main objective of this project is to investigate the recent and future climate variability of the Antarctic Peninsula controlled by synoptic scale mechanisms with a special focus on extreme weather events such as extreme temperatures and melt events over the Larsen Ice Shelf and their potential linkage to the synoptic scale forcing. Some outcomes of this project are:
Bozkurt, D., Marín, J., Barrett, B., 2022. Temperature and moisture transport during atmospheric blocking patterns around the Antarctic Peninsula. Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, 100506, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100506.
Marín, J., Bozkurt, D., Barrett, B., 2022. Atmospheric blocking trends and seasonality around the Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Climate, 35(12), 3803-3818, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0323.1.
Clem, K., Bozkurt, D., Kennett, D., King, J. C., Turner, J., 2022. Central tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula. Nature Communications, 13, 3906, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31119-4.
Bozkurt, D., Bromwich, D. H., Carrasco, J., Rondanelli, R., 2021. Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: Contrasting global and regional climate model simulations. Climate Dynamics, 56, 3853-3874. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2.
Characterization of winter low- and middle-cloud properties linked to atmospheric changes in King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula (CONMAGIA), Co-Investigator, 2022-2025. ANID-FONDECYT 1221122. PI: Jorge F. Carrasco.
This proposal aims at a better characterization and understanding of the atmospheric circulation around AP, including the cloud properties, impacts on sea-ice production and the surface radiation budget, on King George Island (KGI, 62°S) in the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and surrounding sea areas. The main effort of the project will be to carry out in situ observations during the one-two month period in wintertime (sometime from late April to November). The in-situ winter measurements will provide observed data to validate both global and regional model simulations of different atmospheric variables including cloud properties.
SiVAR-Austral: Sistema de modelamiento de viento de alta resolución para la planificación de la actividad acuícola y marítima en la Zona Austral de Chile, Co-Investigator, 2023-2024. ANID-FONDEF ID22110206. PI: Ana María Cordova.
The main objective of this project is to develop, implement and transfer a High Resolution Wind Forecast Modeling System (SiVAR-Austral) that contributes to the planning of aquaculture and maritime activity in southern Chile.
COPAS COASTAL: Center for Oceanographic Research in the Eastern South Pacific, Adjunct Researcher, 2021-2025. ANID-FB210021.
COPAS Coastal's mission is to contribute to improving the country's capacity to face present and future climatic and anthropogenic modifications of coastal ecosystems, through oceanographic research, the development of interdisciplinary capacities and the transfer of technology and knowledge to the sectors public and private. More information is available here.
POLARIX: Long-Range Transport of Xenobiotics and Microorganisms: Teleconnections and Influence on Terrestrial Ecosystems, Adjunct Researcher, 2020-2022. ANID-PIA-Anillo INACH ACT192057. PI: Eduardo Castro-Nallar.
This project aims to understand the teleconnections between Antarctica and the rest of the planet through the transport of microorganisms and pollutants, to evaluate their reservoirs, possible origins, and potential impact on endemic vascular plants in Antarctica. More information is available here.
Regional climate simulations for the Antarctic continent and Chilean island territory, PI, 2018-2019. The Ministry of Environment of Chile & Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago-Chile.
This project aims to generate information on climate projections for the Antarctic Peninsula and Chilean island territory. For the Antarctic Peninsula, a dynamical downscaling approach at 15 km spatial resolution is applied using the regional climate model (PolarWRF 3.9.1) of the Ohio State University’s Polar Meteorology group. For the Chilean island territory, it is proposed to perform a statistical downscaling of the simulated precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 models, using the observations of these variables recorded at the Mataveri and Juan Fernández Airport (DMC) as a reference. The results will be available on an interactive web platform and they will complement the simulations already carried out for continental Chile (http://simulaciones.cr2.cl/). Some outcomes of this project are:
Bozkurt, D., D. H. Bromwich, J. Carrasco, K. M. Hines, J. C. Maureira, and R. Rondanelli, 2020: Recent near- surface temperature trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from observed, reanalysis and regional climate model data. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37, 477-493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9183-x.
Bozkurt, D., Bromwich, D. H., Carrasco, J., Rondanelli, R., 2021. Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: Contrasting global and regional climate model simulations. Climate Dynamics, 56, 3853-3874. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2.
https://www.uchile.cl/noticias/159856/estudio-antartica-chilena-sera-mas-calida-a-mediados-de-siglo (in Spanish).
Regional climate simulations and vulnerability assessment framework, 2017-2018. The Ministry of Environment of Chile & Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago-Chile.
Given the general lack of a scientific reference framework on high resolution climate scenarios for Chile to assess the country’s vulnerability to climate change as well as the social, environmental and economic risks, the Ministry of the Environment started a project entitled “Regional climate simulations and vulnerability assessment framework” in October 2016 within a collaboration with the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2). The main objective of this project is to generate high resolution climate projections for Chile through regional climate modeling for the vulnerability assessment that those data will be available on an interactive platform in order to support the design of public policies of the country on climate change. Within this project, it is the first time that high resolution climate change projections at 10-km spatial resolution until 2050s has been produced for the Chilean territory. More information is available at: http://simulaciones.cr2.cl/. Some outcomes of this project are:
Bravo, C., Bozkurt, D., Ross, A.N., Quincey, D., 2021. Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields., Scientific Reports, 11, 16847 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95725-w.
Bozkurt, D., Rojas, M., Boisier, J.B., Rondanelli, R., Garreaud, R., Gallardo, L., 2019. Dynamical downscaling over the complex terrain of southwest South America: Present climate conditions and added value analysis. Climate Dynamics, 53, 6745–6767, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04959-y.
Bravo, C., Bozkurt, D., Gonzalez-Reyes, A., Quincey, D., Ross, A.N., Farías, D., Rojas, M. Assessing Snow Accumulation Patterns and Changes on the Patagonian Icefields. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7(1), 30, doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2019.00030.
Regional climate processes and future hydro-climate of Central Chile, PI, 2016-2018. ANID-FONDECYT 3150036.
The general objective of this study is twofold: first, to evaluate regional climate processes for western South America and Central Chile via numerical simulations, observational and reanalysis datasets in order to have a better understanding of interannual precipitation variability of Central Chile; second, to characterize variability of future hydroclimate of the region and linkages with large and regional scale changes. Some outcomes of this project are:
Bozkurt, D., Rondanelli, R., Garreaud, R., Arriagada, A., 2016. Impact of warmer eastern tropical Pacific SST on the March 2015 Atacama floods. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (11), 4441-4460, DOI:10.1175/MWR- D-16-0041.
Bozkurt, D., Rojas, M., Boisier, J.P., Valdivieso, J., 2018. Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios. Climatic Change, 150 (3-4), 131-146. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2246-7.
Bozkurt, D., Garreaud, R., 2015. Impacts of subtropical southeast Pacific SST anomalies on cold and warm precipitation events in Central Chile. 11th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Santiago, Chile, October 2015.
Impacts of climate change on Euphrates River discharges, Co-Investigator, 2010-2012. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), No: 109Y287.
This project aims to investigate runoff and streamflow changes in the Middle and Upper Euphrates basins in the 21th century using a hydrologic routing model with the runoff data that are provided from the regional climate projections based on different emission scenarios of IPCC. The climate change projections forsee that the decrease in snow cover especially in the eastern Anatolia Region, which feed the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, will lead to significant seasonal changes in runoff in response to the increases in surface temperatures. In winter season in which snow accumulates, less snow will accumulate and more water will get into the flow. Since there will be less accumulated snow in snow melting season, less runoff will occur, and therefore, the flow regime in the rivers will be changed. Investigation of these changes in the runoff via the atmosphere-hydrology model is very crucial for planning for correct and effective use of water resources. Some outcomes of this project are:
Bozkurt, D., Sen, O.L., Hagemann, S., 2015. Projected river discharge in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin from a hydrological discharge model forced with RCM and GCM outputs. Climate Research, 62, 131-147, DOI:10.3354/cr01268.
Bozkurt, D., Sen, O.L., 2013. Climate change impacts in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 480, 149-161, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.021.
http://www.radikal.com.tr/turkiye/firat-ve-diclenin-suyu-yuzde-30-azalacak-1123837/ (in Turkish).
Enhancing the capacity of Turkey to adapt to climate change, Co-Investigator, 2008-2010. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), MDG-F-1680.
This project aims to generate high resolution climate projections for Turkey that are used to develop national capacity for managing climate change risks for rural and coastal development in Turkey. Some outcomes of this project are:
Onol, B., Bozkurt, D., Turuncoglu, U.U., Sen, O.L., Dalfes, H.N., 2013. Evaluation of the 21st century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region. Climate Dynamics, 42, 1949-1965.
Bozkurt, D., Turuncoglu, U., Sen, O.L., Onol, B., Dalfes, H.N., 2012. Downscaled simulations of the ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3 global models for the eastern Mediterranean-Black Sea region: Evaluation of the reference period. Climate Dynamics, 39 (1-2), 207-225, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1187-x.
Installation of disaster management and meteorological early warning system in Rize province, Co-Investigator, 2007-2008. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Investigation of atmospheric events that caused water overflow in Euphrates basin in March 2004, Co-Investigator, 2007-2008. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), No: 105Y341.
Climate Change Scenarios for Turkey, Co-Investigator, 2006-2008. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), No: 105G015.