Economic Expansion Boundary Trendlines/Peak Inputs: 1967 - 9/30/2020

The Federal Reserve's Total Capacity Utilization measure and Department of Labor's Initial Unemployment Claims data reveal a trend over time toward a lower Total Capacity Utilization rate and higher Initial Unemployment Claims at subsequent expansion peaks. Those two measures are combined with their calculated trendlines in two graphs here to illustrate the relationship over the period 1967 to present. Trendline calculations for both measures are based on 400 month period from January 1967 to April 2000 coincident trendline intersections. Updated monthly at the Federal Reserve's Total Capacity Utilization measure release.

Graph 1 illustrates the two measures and their trendlines.

Graph 2 combines the two measures to offer a percentage comparison across the eight recessions: (IC4WSA Boundary Trendline/IC4WSA plus Total Capacity Utilization/TCU Boundary Trendline)/2. Time from highest Peak Inputs measure to recession varies across the eight recessions illustrated in this graph. Time from highest Peak Inputs measure to recession onset from left to right across graph 2 in months: 7, 9, 14, 7, 20, 11, 22, and 19. The average time from highest cycle Peak Inputs measure to recession onset is 13.63 months. September 2020 measure of Peak Inputs at 63.11% continues a recovery from April's record low of 44.06%.