Research

Working Papers


We exploit housing lotteries in Brazil to study the impacts of a large-size housing program on labor market outcomes. Combining data from several administrative registries, we track monthly outcomes for 700,000 lottery applicants, 35,000 of whom won a housing lottery.  We assess the effects of winning a lottery on labor supply and entrepreneurship. We find a small, negative impact on formal employment.  The effects are stronger for male lottery winners living in smaller cities. We do not find any impact on the likelihood of formalizing small-size firms. The results suggest that the thicker labor markets of larger cities may work as a buffer to mitigate the network disruption of living in remotely located housing projects. Wealth and income effects from the housing program allowed winners of remote projects to buy motorcycles to reduce transportation time costs to formal job opportunities. 

  

 Using admission lotteries and registry data linking labor market outcomes, we study the effect of a vocational training program focused on disadvantaged individuals in Brazil. The intensive program is an 18-month classroom training coupled with a 6-month on-the-job training provided by government-sponsored training centers. When assessing the impacts on 15,000 winners and 200,000 nonwinners who graduated in different business cycle moments, we show that female students fare better than their male counterparts. Results are driven by courses in services and those located in faster-growing local labor markets. Investigating outcomes beyond employment and earnings, we do not find an impact on entrepreneurship or university admission.


 This paper studies how production responses from agricultural commodity booms affect greenhouse gas emissions, the primary cause of climate change. We show that Brazilian localities more exposed to booms substantially increase deforestation and agricultural fires, leading to higher emissions. The effects are significantly higher in Brazil’s major biomes, including the Amazon. Commodity booms also induce production responses toward lower emissions, such as higher output per area. Taking into account higher- and lower-emission production responses, localities present an increase in net emissions. Moreover, our findings highlight that positive economic shocks may have unintended consequences, as high-exposed localities present lower compliance with a climate policy aiming at boosting conservation.     


 We provide evidence of how technological progress affects greenhouse gas emissions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we show that producers in Brazilian localities with high suitability for genetically engineered seeds increase crop output by substituting away from higher-emission activities (such as livestock breeding). This increase in crop output is not accompanied by deforestation and fires---two major greenhouse gas emitters. Further, our findings indicate that the agriculture sector presents lower carbon intensity: emissions per output decreased by 30% after the land-use change promoted by the introduction of genetically engineered seeds. Our evidence suggests that technological innovations can decouple production from emissions. 


We study the effects of a free-fare transport policy implemented by Brazilian localities on employment and greenhouse gas emissions. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that fare-free transit increases employment by 3.2% and reduces emissions by 4.1%, indicating that transport policies can decouple economic activity from environmental damage. Our results are driven by workers transitioning from higher-emission to lower-emission sectors instead of being driven by a decline in private transportation use. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that the costly policy only presents net benefits after considering the tax inflows of the increased economic activity and the benefits of reduced carbon emissions. 


How do housing interventions affect subjective well-being? To study this question, we conduct a randomized intervention in informal settlements in Brazil that mobilizes residents to build higher-quality prefabricated houses with community members and friends. We find that the intervention substantially improved subjective well-being. Assessing the mechanisms, we show that treated individuals have more trust in community members and a lower propensity to move out to other neighborhoods. Qualitative data from semistructured in-depth interviews reinforce our findings. The results highlight that social interactions are relevant for explaining outcomes of in situ improvements.

Pre-Analysis Plan: Link


This paper investigates informal employment in Brazil’s highly regulated labor market, focusing on the intensive margin of informality within formal firms. Using a comprehensive dataset of labor audits conducted from 1997 to 2012, we find that formal firms caught with informal workers face sustained slower growth. Informal workers are found across firms of all sizes, and their characteristics closely resemble those of formal employees. Building on these empirical findings, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms balance the flexibility of informality against potential costs. Our framework can be used to explore government policy implications and to examine the impact of audit strategies on informality, output, and workers’ welfare. 


This paper investigates whether the large-scale expansion of public universities in Brazil promoted entrepreneurship in regions characterized by high fixed costs of establishing businesses and traditionally unattractive to firms. Using a staggered differences-indifferences approach, we identify a significant 21% increase in the number of companies per 1,000 inhabitants, driven primarily by small (53%) and micro enterprises (105%). Our analysis suggests two mechanisms: local demand and human capital shocks. The expansion of universities benefits sectors related to local demand, such as retail (62%) and service (39%). Moreover, we find a 112% increase in patents and 59% rise in exporting companies, which is consistent with universities enhancing local human capital by producing skilled graduates. We also observe a 75% increase in skilled workers, indicating significant development in the local labor market. To further assess the impact of universities, we evaluate machine learning-based counterfactual assignment policies that prioritize the creation of universities in localities with the highest predicted benefits. Our findings suggest that such targeted policies can enhance the average annual growth rate of entrepreneurship to more than four times the effect of the government's previous choices, particularly by selecting more disadvantaged localities. This result underscores the advantages of strategic resource allocation in maximizing the impact of university expansions on entrepreneurship in areas with limited economic infrastructure.


 This paper seeks to understand how local government policies on housing stimulus and city growth are affected by intergovernmental transfers. Cities receiving smaller amounts of fiscal transfers may have more incentives to stimulate housing growth to increase local revenue and, as a result, they end-up attracting more people and having a faster-growing housing sector. By contrast, lack of windfalls may also generate lower provision of local public goods, emigration of current residents, and stagnated housing markets. Quasi-experimental evidence from the distribution of intergovernmental transfers to Brazilian municipalities shows that locations less dependent on federal grants have a faster-growing housing sector.

Publications and Forthcoming Papers


Paper: Link, Version


Paper: Link,  WP Version, Twitter thread, Youtube video with research summary (in Portuguese)    


Paper: Link, Version 


Paper: Link, Version, Twitter thread

Research Summary published at the IDB: Research Insights  


Paper: Link, Version


Paper: Link


Paper: Link

Companion video "Oil and gas wells in Brazil": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZKdnUeBcOI

Research Summary published in the IMF Research Bulletin: Link


Paper: Link, Version

Media Briefing: Link


NBER Working Paper: Link 

Work in Progress

Low-Cost Management Consulting and Firm Productivity (with L. Mation)

AEA Registry: link 

Video explaining the research project: link  

Breaking Up: Do Smaller Jurisdictions Provide Better Services (with M. Castro)

Do Job Placement Services Unleash the Benefits from Job Training? (with R. Oliveira)