This paper investigates the complicity of local public buyers in enabling the diversion of resources to organised crime through the manipulation of contract values in public works and services. Exploiting a discontinuity in anti-mafia screening procedures, we analyse a comprehensive dataset of public procurement contracts issued by Italian municipalities spanning from 2007 to 2019. Bunching estimators reveal a distinct pattern of contract value manipulation occurring just below the anti-mafia screening threshold of €150,000, with a heightened concentration observed in public works projects and provinces characterised by a higher prevalence of mafia influence. Our empirical analysis further shows that bunching is significantly more pronounced in municipalities that are later dissolved for mafia infiltration. Contracts below the threshold are also more likely to involve limited competition and to be awarded to firms with financial traits consistent with the hypothesis of mafia infiltration. By following the full procurement chain – from the design of the contract, to how competition is shaped, to who ultimately wins – we provide new evidence of collusion risks in local procurement, and highlight the importance of enhanced safeguards to counter corruption and organised crime within public procurement processes.
Analyse the direct and spillover effects of conflict on economic growth using a large cross-country sample and various econometric techniques.
Examine how conflict negatively affects economic output in the short and long run.
Heterogeneity in the conflict-growth relationship may be driven by reverse causality.
Find that the negative impact of conflict is particularly severe in Asian countries.
This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity across a sample of African countries. Using data from the Afrobarometer survey, the study finds that pandemic-related shocks increased the incidence of food insecurity by 8 percentage points on average. These effects were particularly pronounced in West and Southern Africa, as well as in rural areas, where movement restrictions and local market closures significantly disrupted economic activity. Robustness checks confirm these findings.
This paper contributes to the literature on the costs of conflict, focusing on the important channel of its effect on food security. It does this by examining whether people in conflict zones lack sufficient food and whether this can be directly attributed to armed conflicts. It uses the Afrobarometer household survey and data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) for conflict indicators, specifically, the number of battle-related events at the regional level. The dataset spans 2012–2022 across 29 African countries. The effect of battle-related events (i.e. battle deaths) on food insecurity is evaluated using a two-way fixed effect and a weighted regression framework that directly addresses unobserved heterogeneity. The model shows that a rise in battle-related events in a region leads to increased food insecurity and this result is found to be robust. When more intense food insecurity is considered, conflict is also found to have an even larger effect. This provides evidence that conflict has a significant impact on food security in Africa. This has important health implications and adds to the evidence of the important legacy costs of conflict that can last long after the conflict ends.
