The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) is chaired by Professor Schellnhuber (Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany) and is composed of 9 eminent professors from Austria, Germany and Switzerland and in various disciples (physics, energy economics, systems analysis, geobiology, geology, politcal science, law and aerospace engineering): http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf .
Members of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach” (1 November 2008): “The vast majority of scientists now agree that if global warming exceeds a mean temperature of 2oC it will lead t dangerous, irreversible and practically uncontrollable consequences for both nature and mankind. A total of 133 countries, including the major economies and the European Union, have acknowledged the significance of this temperature limit. Many of these countries have made it their target to limit the rise of global mean temperature to 2oC or less as a guard rail for their endeavours in climate policy…The budget of CO2 emissions still available world-wide could be derived from the 2oC guard rail. By the middle of the 21st century a maximum of approximateluy750 Gt CO2 (billion metric tons) may be released into the Earth’s atmosphere if the guard rail is to be adhered to with a probability of 67%. If we raise the probability to 75% , the cumulative emissions within this period would even have to remain below 600 Gt CO2. In any case, only a small amount of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050.” [1].
[1]. Members of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach. Special Report” (1 November 2008): http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf .
[Addendum: What this means for climate criminal Australia (a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution, coal exports and LNG exports).
The average world population in 2010-2050 will be about 8 billion.
WBGU estimate of 600 billion tones CO2 maximum means 600 billion tones CO2/8 billionpeople = 75 tonnes CO2 per person.
Australia has a population of 22 million and accordingly its share of this terminal budget is 75 tonnes per person x 22 million person = 1,650 million tonnes CO2 left to pollute
In 2009 Australia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in millions of tonnes of CO2-equivalnet (Mt CO2-e) totalled 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415 Mt CO2-e.
Australia’s Domestic GHG pollution is increasing at about 2% per year, coal exports at 2.4% pa and LNG exports at 9% pa (see: ABARE, “Australian energy national and state projections to 2029-2030”: http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_06/nrg_projections06.pdf ). Accordingly in 2010 Australia’s GHG pollution in Mt CO2-e would have been about 612 (Domestic) + 803 )(coal exports) + 34 (LNG exports) = 1,449 Mt CO2-e
Accordingly at the current rate of Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution, Australia has 1,650 Mt CO2-e/ (1,449 Mt per year) = 1.1 years left.out of the 2010-2050 window.
The pro-gas, pro-coal Australia labor Government has proposed a market economics-based Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) plan to “tackle climate change” that is effectively a plan for climate change inaction because it institutes a pointless coal burning to gas burning conversion (doubling power-0based GHG pollution due to systemic methane leakage); scuppers science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020; institutes an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive, fraud-permissive and fraudulent carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS); and ignores petrol, fossil fuel exprts, forestry and agriculture (agriculture is is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution).
Labor proposes to start its Carbon Tax in mid-2012 by which toime Austrtalia will have already used up its “fair share” of the World’s terminal 600 billion tonne CO2 budget.]