The Australian Climate Commission chaired by Professor Tim Flannery is advised by an expert Scientific Advisory panel composed of 9 leading Australian climate scientists and recently released a report entitled “The Critical Decade. Climate science, risks and responses” (see: http://climatecommission.gov.au/ ).
The authoritative Australian Climate Commission, advised by an expert Scientific Advisory panel composed of 9 leading Australian climate scientists, recently (2011) released a report entitled “The Critical Decade. Climate science, risks and responses”. The report stated (p53): “The budget approach [to tackling climate change] directly links the projected rise in temperature to the aggregated global emissions in Gt [Gigatonnes or billions of tonnes] CO2 [carbon dioxide] or Gt C [carbon] for a specified period, usually 2000 to 2050 or 2100. For example, humanity can emit not more than 1 trillion [1,000 billion] tonnes of CO2 between 2000 and 2050 to have a probability of about 75% of limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees C [Centigrade] [noting that this is EU policy].” [1].
Australian Climate Commission on only 16 years left before we exceed the terminal budget (2013): “The budget approach shows that to have a 75% chance of staying within the 2oC limit , we can emit no more than 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2000 to mid-century. In the first 13 years of this period we have already emitted nearly 400 billion tonnes, about 40% of the total allowable budget (Figure 8). That leaves a budget of just over 500 billion tonnes of CO2 for the next 35-40 years, after which the world economy needs to be completely decarbonised. Worse yet, the rate at which we are spending the budget is still much too high, and is growing. For example, from 2011 to 2012, global CO2 emissions rose by 2.5%. Under a business-as-usual model, with emissions growing at 2.5% per annum, we are on track to have completely used up the allowable global emissions budget within the next 16 years, that is, by 2028.” [2].
[1]. Australian Climate Commission, “The Critical Decade. Climate science, risks and responses”, 2011: http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ .
[2]. Australian Climate Commission, “The critical decade 2013: a summary of climate change science, risks and responses”, 2013, p7: http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/The-Critical-Decade-2013-Summary_lowres.pdf .
[Addendum: What this means for climate criminal Australia (a world leader in annual per capita greenhouse gas pollution, coal exports and LNG exports).
The average world population in 2010-2050 will be about 8 billion.
Climate Commission estimate of 1,000 billion tones CO2 maximum means 1,000 billion tones CO2/8 billion people = 125 tonnes CO2 per person.
Australia has a population of 22 million and accordingly its share of this terminal budget is 125 tonnes per person x 22 million person = 2,75 million tonnes CO2 left to pollute
In 2009 Australia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in millions of tonnes of CO2-equivalnet (Mt CO2-e) totalled 600 (Domestic) + 784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415 Mt CO2-e.
Australia’s Domestic GHG pollution is increasing at about 2% per year, coal exports at 2.4% pa and LNG exports at 9% pa (see: ABARE, “Australian energy national and state projections to 2029-2030”: http://www.abare.gov.au/publications_html/energy/energy_06/nrg_projections06.pdf ). Accordingly in 2010 Australia’s GHG pollution in Mt CO2-e would have been about 612 (Domestic) + 803 )(coal exports) + 34 (LNG exports) = 1,449 Mt CO2-e
Accordingly at the current rate of Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution, Australia has 2,750 Mt CO2-e/ (1,449 Mt per year) = 1.9 years left.out of the 2010-2050 window.
The pro-gas, pro-coal Australia labor Government has proposed a market economics-based Carbon Tax-ETS-Ignore Agriculture (CTETSIA) plan to “tackle climate change” that is effectively a plan for climate change inaction because it institutes a pointless coal burning to gas burning conversion (doubling power-0based GHG pollution due to systemic methane leakage); scuppers science-demanded 100% renewable energy by 2020; institutes an empirically ineffective, disastrously counterproductive, fraud-permissive and fraudulent carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS); and ignores petrol, fossil fuel exprts, forestry and agriculture (agriculture is is responsible for over 50% of GHG pollution).
Labor proposes to start its Carbon Tax in mid-2012 but by the end of 2012 Austrtalia will have already used up its “fair share” of the World’s terminal 1,000 billion tonne CO2 budget.]