Working Papers 

• Bond risk premia, priced regime shifts, and macroeconomic fundamentals, with Ivan Petrella and Martín Solá, Revised, September 2023.
  
  

• Mussa Meets Backus-Smith: The Role of Primary Commodities, with  Joao Ayres and Juan Pablo Nicolini, February 2023. Online Suplement here.

• "Corporate debt and capital controls," with Emilio Espino (coming soon)

• "The macroeconomics of Itaipú: an open economy model of a large spending shock," with Javier Charotti and Andy Neumeyer, May 2018, Slides. 

• Monetary policy and Dutch Disease: The Case of Price and Wage Rigidity, with Juan Pablo Nicolini, June 2015.

• Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a new Keynesian model with a Dutch disease: the case of complete markets, with Andy Neumeyer and Juan Pablo Nicolini, August 2013.

Publications in refereed journals

1. Covid-19 in Unequal Societies, with Manuel Macera and  Andy Neumeyer, Working paper Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, Vol 140.

2. Bond risk premia and the return forecasting factor, with Agustín Gutierrez and Martín Solá. Working paper. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2020, Vol  24, Issue 1, pp.1-12. 

3. Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices, with Joao Ayres and Juan Pablo Nicolini, Working paper Journal of International Economics, 2020, Vol. 122.

4. Bond risk premia and restrictions on risk prices with Martín Solá. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2018, 11, 60.

5. Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures, with Ivan Petrella and Martín Solá. Online supplement here. Working paper. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, Vol 33, Issue 6, pp. 853-873.

6. Assessing the degree of international consumption risk sharing, with Luis Servén. Online supplement here. Working paper. Journal of Development Economics, 2018, Vol 134, pp. 176-190.

7. Monitoring money for price stability, with Juan Pablo Nicolini. Working paper. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2018, Vol 89, pp. 50-63.

8. Privatization and nationalization cycles, with Roberto Chang and Norman V. Loayza. Working paper. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, Vol 22, Issue 2, pp. 331-361.

9. Estimating and forecasting the yield curve using a Markov switching dynamic Nelson and Siegel model, with Martín González Rozada, Martín Solá, and Fabio Spagnolo. Working paper. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015, Vol 30, Issue 6, pp. 987-1009.

10. Emerging market fluctuations: What makes the difference? Online supplement here. Working paper. Journal of International Economics, 2014, Vol 94, Issue 1, pp. 33-49.

11. Optimal devaluations, with Juan Pablo Nicolini. Working paper. IMF Economic Review, 2013, Vol 61, No 1.

12. How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global crisis? with Tatiana Didier and Sergio Schmukler. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012, Vol 31 No 8.

13. Saving and growth in Egypt, with Norman V. Loayza. Middle East Development Journal, 2012, Vol 4, No 1.

Other publications

1. A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and its Policy Implications, with Andy Neumeyer, in The Socio-Economic Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic: Ideas for Policy Action, Luis Felipe López-Calva and Marcela Meléndez (Ed.), UNDP, 2020.

2. A perfect storm: COVID-19 in emerging economies, with Andy Neumeyer, in Covid-19 in Developing Countries, Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza (Ed.), CEPR Press, 2020.

3. Política monetaria y la enfermedad holandesa: rigidez de precios y de salarios, with Juan Pablo Nicolini. Economía Chilena, 2015. Vol. 18 No. 2, pp. 28-60.

4. Respuestas de política a la crisis financiera global: ¿Qué hicieron diferente las economías emergentes?, with Francisco Ceballos, Tatiana Didier, and Sergio Schmukler. Revista de Estudios Económicos, 2012 Central Bank of Peru 24, 27-43.

   • Also available a previous English version: Policy responses to the global financial crisis: what did emerging economies do differently?. Central Bank of Peru, Working Paper Series 2013-002.

5. Emerging country responses to the global crisis, with Tatiana Didier and Sergio Schmukler, in Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations, Robert W. Kolb (Ed.), John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011, 203-218.

Other Articles / Commentary

• A perfect storm: COVID-19 in emerging economies, with Andy Neumeyer, in Voxeu April 22, 2020.

• Los dilemas económicos que plantea el coronavirus, con Andy Neumeyer, en La Nación, 1 de Abril de 2020.

• A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and its Policy Implication, with Andy Neumeyer, March 30, 2020. (Versión en castellano.)

• El falso dilema entre las LELIQ y las jubilaciones, en Focoeconomico el 31 de julio de 2019.

  • Aquí una versión más corta y editada en La Nación, 01/08/2019.

• La dolarización es un atajo que puede resultarnos demasiado costoso, en Clarín, 13/09/2018.

• La dolarización es una mala idea, en Focoeconomico el 25 de julio de 2018.

  • Reproducido en el periódico La Prensa, La dolarización es una mala idea, el domingo 29 de julio de 2018.

• La gran divergencia, en Focoeconomico el 7 de marzo de 2018.

• Modelos macroeconómicos. ¿De donde venimos y hacia donde vamos?, en Focoeconomico el 4 de octubre de 2017.

• Algunas especulaciones monetarias y fiscales, en Focoeconomico el 17 de junio de 2015.

• La expropiación de YPF y los ciclos de privatización y nacionalización, en Focoeconómico el 30 de abril de 2012.

• Una descomposición del milagro kirchnerista, en Focoeconomico el 7 de marzo de 2012.

• Emerging market resilience, with Tatiana Didier and Sergio Schmukler, in Voxeu on August 9, 2011.
  
  

Old Working Papers

• Partial consumption insurance and financial openness across the world, with Luis Servén, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper WPS 6479, June 2013

• Saving and growth in Sri Lanka, with Norman V. Loayza, World Bank Working Paper WPS 6300, 2013.

• Using pooled information and bootstrap methods to assess debt sustainability in low income countries, World Bank Working Paper WPS 5978, 2012.