Research
Working papers:
Understanding the Reallocation of Displaced Workers to Firms (with . Brandily and C. Hémet) IZA DP No. 15105 ; Summary Voxeu
Abstract: We study job displacement in France. In the medium run, losses in firm-specific wage premium account for a substantial share of the overall cost of displacement. However, and despite the positive correlation between premium and productivity in the cross-section of firms, we find that workers are reemployed by high productivity, low labor share firms. The observed reallocation is therefore productivity-enhancing although it is costly for workers. We show that receiving firms are less likely to conclude collective wage agreements and have lower participation rates at professional elections. Overall, our results point to a loss in bargaining power.
Follow the money! Why dividends overreact to flat-tax reforms, with L. Bach, A. Bozio, B. Fabre, A. Guillouzouic, C. Leroy [mimeo] currently being updated
Abtract: We estimate behavioral responses to dividend taxation using two recent French reforms: a rate hike followed, five years later, by a cut. Exploiting tax data at household and firm-level, we find very large dividend tax elasticities to both reforms. Individuals who control firms adjust dividends instantaneously and account for most of tax-induced changes in aggregate dividends. Their firms don’t react on the investment margin. The changes in dividends are instead driven by corporate saving, as owner-managers treat firms as tax-free saving vehicles. In smaller businesses, we see a negative response of profits to taxes, consistent with the notion that firms can also be tax-free consumption vehicles.
See also the related IPP Report (in French): Évaluation d’impact de la fiscalité des dividendes.
From Public Labs to Private Firms: Magnitude and Channels of R&D Spillovers (with Antonin Bergeaud, Arthur Guillouzouic and Emeric Henry)
Revised and resubmitted at Quarterly Journal of Economics
Abstract: Introducing a new measure of scientific proximity between private firms and public research groups and exploiting a multi-billion euro financing program of academic clusters in France, we provide causal evidence of spillovers from academic research to private firms. Private sector firms in the top quartile of exposure to the funding shock increase their R\&D effort by 20% compared to the bottom quartile. We then use qualitative evidence, exploiting reports produced by the funded clusters, as well as quantitative evidence, using administrative data on labor mobility and R&D public--private partnerships, to shed light on the channels for these spillovers. We show that spillovers are driven by contracting between the private and public sectors and, to a lesser extent, by labor mobility from one to the other and by informal contacts. We discuss policy implications of these findings.
Do Billionaires Pay Taxes? (with L. Bach, A. Bozio et A. Guillouzouic) [draft coming soon]
Abstract: Using French tax data linking personal and corporate returns, we measure the effective tax rates of households at the top of the comprehensive income distribution and particularly billionaires, i.e. those at the top 0.0001%. Personal tax rates fall with income within the top 1%, down to almost 0% among billionaires. The wealth tax is barely less regressive than the income tax because business assets are exempted from it and because it is capped in proportion to personal, not comprehensive, income. The corporate tax appears to nearly offset the regressivity of personal taxes, making it effectively the only tax on billionaires.
Technological Change and Domestic Outsourcing (with A. Bergeaud, C. Mazet-Sonilhac and S. Signorelli) accepted at Journal of Labor Economics
Abstract: Domestic outsourcing has grown substantially in developed countries over the past two decades. While some studies document its implications for earnings inequality, very little is known regarding the drivers of this phenomenon. This paper addresses this question by studying the impact of the staggered diffusion of broadband internet on job outsourcing by French firms. We adopt an event study design and rely on employer-employee data. Our results confirm that broadband technology is skill-biased, since it increases firm productivity and the relative demand for high-skill workers. Further, we show that broadband internet led firms to outsource some non-core occupations to service contractors, both in the low and high skill segment. In both cases, we find that employment related to these occupations became increasingly concentrated in firms specializing in these activities, and less likely to be performed in-house within firms specialized in other activities. Moreover, establishments become increasingly homogeneous in their occupational composition after the arrival of broadband internet, signaling that this technology fostered skill segregation. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that high-skill workers experience salary gains from being outsourced, while low-skill workers lose.
Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections, EUI RSCAS WP 2017/21
Abstract: The rise of extreme-right populist parties is a Europe-wide phenomenon. While many studies describe the individual or regional characteristics associated with high propensity to vote for the far-right, we know little about the causal impact of economic shocks on electoral support for the far-right. Over the period 1995-2012, we examine the impact of trade-shocks, as measured by exposure to low-wage country import competition, on the local vote share of the National Front, the French main far-right party, during presidential elections. We use small communities (cantons) as unit of observations and include province (département) fixed-effects, so that the identifying variation comes from within-province change in import competition exposure over time. We find evidence of a small but significantly positive impact of imports competition exposure on votes for the far-right: a one standard-deviation increase in imports-per-worker causes the change in the far-right share to increase by 7 percent of a standard deviation. Further results suggest that this effect has been increasing over the time period considered. We conduct a simple sensitivity test supporting the notion that (i) omitting local share of immigrants is likely to bias our estimate downward, and that (ii) this bias is likely to be negligible.
Escape or Play Again? How Retiring Entrepreneurs Respond to the Wealth Tax (with L. Bach, A. Bozio et A. Guillouzouic)
Abstract: Using an exhaustive panel of French income and wealth taxpayers, we find that entrepreneurs pay far more wealth taxes once they retire. Despite this, entrepreneurs do not leave France more often than high-wage employees upon retirement. Rather, retired entrepreneurs reinvest part of the proceeds from the sale of their business into tax-favored angel investments.
Publications:
Technological Change and Domestic Outsourcing (with A. Bergeaud, C. Mazet-Sonilhac and S. Signorelli) forthoming Journal of Labor Economics October 2025 (vol. 43, no. 4)
Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms: Comment, with T. Mayer and C. Mazet-Sonilhac; American Economic Review Vol. 113, No. 8, August 2023
Dividend Taxes and the Allocation of Capital: Comment, with with L. Bach, A. Bozio and A. Guillouzouic; American Economic Review Vol. 113, No. 7, July 2023
Who benefits from tax incentives? The heterogeneous wage incidence of a tax credit, with C. Carbonnier, L. Py and C. Urvoy; Journal of Public Economics; Volume 206, February 2022
Technology-induced trade shocks? Evidence from broadband internet expansion in France, with T. Mayer and C. Mazet-Sonilhac; Journal of International Economics Volume 133, November 2021, 103520
Does holding elections during a Covid-19 pandemic put the lives of politicians at risk?, with L. Bach and A. Guillouzouic; Journal of Health Economics (2021) Volume 78, July 2021, 102462
The Economic Incentives of Cultural Transmission: Spatial Evidence from Naming Patterns across France, with Y. Algan, T. Mayer and M. Thoenig; Economic Journal Volume 132, Issue 642, February 2022, Pages 437–470
Countercylical school attainment and intergenerational mobility, with A. Arenas; Labour Economics (2018) 53:97–111
Diversity and Employment Prospects: Neighbors Matter!, with C. Hémet; Journal of Human Resources (2018) 53:825-858 (CEPR Discussion Paper 11396; Banque de France WP no 605)
Services policy reform and manufacturing employment: Evidence from transition economies, with M. Fiorini and B. Hoekman; World Economy (2018) 41:2320–2348
Exports and labor costs: Evidence from a French policy, with T. Mayer; Review of World Economics (2018) 154(3): 429-454
Press coverage (in French): Les Echos, France Soir
The Impact of Chinese Import Competition on the Local Structure of Employment and Wages: Evidence from France, Journal of Regional Science (2017) 57: 411–441
Summarized in Rue de la Banque no. 57; Press coverage (in French): Les Echos, Le Point; Le Figaro, LeMonde, France 3, Alternatives économiques ; Great summary in French Blog Illusio
Do geographically targeted tax incentive benefit to zone residents? Lessons from the US and French experiences, with L. Py Revue économique (2016) 67(3):581-614 (in French)
Selected works-in-progress
The wage of temporary agency workers with Antonin Bergeaud, Pierre Cahuc, Sara Signorelli et Thomas Zuber
Incentives and the shift to cleaner vehicles: Empirical evidence from the French context with Arthur Guillouzouic, Thierry Mayer and Maxime Tô
Shocking Capital: Firm-level Responses to a Large Business Tax Reform in France, with Antonin Bergeaud and Gabriel Smagghue
Research grant
Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR): Jeunes chercheurses, jeunes chercheurs (JCJC).
Years: 2019-2022. Principal Investigator.
Other Peer-Reviewed Publications
Political Uncertainty, Risk of Frexit and Sovereign European Spreads: Evidence from Prediction Markets, with Clément Mazet-Sonilhac
Applied Economics Letters Volume 25, 2018 - Issue 14
Policy Work:
"Quels effets attendre de la transformation du CICE en réductions de cotisations employeurs ?", Note IPP n°36
Note regarding the conversion of a large corporate income tax credit into a reduction in social security contributions in France. Report commissioned by the French parliament (Assemblée nationale) during the Parliamentary discussion of the 2019 budget (discussion du projet de loi de finance).
Press coverage: La Tribune, Le Monde, Le Monde, LCP
Evaluation of a major reform aiming at cutting labor costs and implemented as a corporate income tax credit in France (Crédit d'Impôt pour la Compétitivité et l'Emploi or CICE), 2018, Report commissioned by France Stratégie, a think-tank working under the Prime Minister (in French). Summary of an earlier version: [.pdf] Final Report [.pdf]
Estimating the Effect of Enterprise Zones on Commercial Rents, English version of the third chapter of the report "Evaluation of the Enterprize Zone Program in France" [.pdf]
Evaluation of the Enterprize Zone Program in France, 2012, Report commissioned by the French Ministry of Labor (DARES) (in French). [.pdf] (with Thierry Mayer, Florian Mayneris, Loriane Py)