Policy Papers (selected)

Depuis la création de l’impôt sur les grandes fortunes (IGF) en 1982, l’imposition du patrimoine a toujours été assortie d’un mécanisme de plafonnement. Celui-ci visait à limiter le montant d’impôt payé lorsque la somme des impositions sur le revenu et le patrimoine dont les ménages étaient redevables dépassait une certaine part de leur revenu. Ce rapport vise à mieux comprendre qui étaient les ménages plafonnés, quels étaient leur niveau et leur composition de patrimoine et de revenus. Il propose une description approfondie de ces ménages, et étudie leurs réactions à deux réformes du plafonnement : son annulation ponctuelle en 2012, et la forte variation de son application avec la transformation de l’ISF en IFI.

Ce rapport utilise les modulations successives des bonus malus écologiques observés dans les pays européens pour estimer l'impact causal de ce dispositif sur les ventes de véhicules. Les résultats montrent une forme élasticité des ventes à ce dispositif. A partir des résultats obtenus, nous proposons une analyse contrefactuelle permettant de mettre en lumière l'impact de cette politique sur les caractéristiques des nouveaux véhicules vendus, en nous concentrant sur le cas français. Nous nous focalisons en particulier sur le niveau théorique d'émission de CO2 des véhicules et la localisation des usines de fabrication des véhicules. Les résultats montrent que le dispositif a un impact important sur les émissions de CO2 et sur la vente de véhicules électriques. L'impact sur la part de véhicules produits nationalement est plus limité. Globalement, il apparaît que le bonus/malus a permis de diminuer l'intensité CO2 des nouveaux véhicules sans que cela ne fasse au détriment de la production nationale.

Using new registry data for firms ending their fiscal year in mid-2020, we document the take-up by French firms to the Prêts garantis par l'Etat (PGE, the French iteration of the pandemic loans). The PGEs were very popular with French companies in 2020, including among the largest companies.  The analysis of corporate balance sheets indicates, as one would expect, that the gross debt of the beneficiaries has risen sharply. However, this was not actually accompanied by an increase in net debt to alarming levels, because some recipients received other grants and others were only using the PGE scheme as a precautionary measure.

This research report analyses the impact of the French research tax credit (RTC) on R&D investment, innovation and the economic performance of companies. The analysis uses administrative data on all French companies, which until now have been little used to assess the impact of the CIR. An event-study approach around take shows that companies benefit from a large and long lasting tax break.  We also show the RTC takeup is accompanied by an increase in employment of engineers, both in level and share of employment in the firm, as well as an increase in the probability of filing a patent. Using more plausibly causal approaches, we fail to detect similar effects, suggesting the event-study results reflect a positive selection of firms into the program. 

Using high-frequency VAT data, we find that the corporate sales impact of the Covid-19 shock in the spring of 2020 was very heterogeneous both between and within sectors. Emergency subsidies (loan guarantees, short-time work) do target firms with the biggest sales drops, albeit not perfectly. Corporate tax cuts, on the other hand, do not provide significantly more help to firms more affected by the pandemic.

In this report, the evaluate the effects of the decision made in 2018 to convert the French wealth tax into a real estate tax. We first show that prior to 2018 many large shareholders were already lightly taxed thanks to tax caps and exemptions. Second, we do not find that the reform led to a significant drop in dividend receipts among those who might otherwise have had to use such dividends to pay the wealth tax. Third, we confirm the prior that, before 2018, entrepreneurs paid far more wealth taxes once they retired. Despite this, entrepreneurs did not leave France more often than high-wage employees upon retirement. Rather, retired entrepreneurs used to reinvest part of the proceeds from the sale of their business into tax-favored angel investments.

In this report, we estimate the reactivity of dividend decisions by French firms and dividend receipts by French households to the removal of a flat tax on dividends in 2013 and its reinstatement in 2018. The flat tax removal caused a decrease in dividends so large that the tax increase generated a significant fiscal revenue loss. Firms which decided to distribute fewer dividends saw their annual earnings decrease by almost as much as the increase in retained earnings, as a result of which corporate investment was left unaffected.

Note regarding the conversion of a large corporate income tax credit into a reduction in social security contributions in  France. Report commissioned by the French parliament (Assemblée nationale) during the Parliamentary discussion of the 2019 budget (discussion du projet de loi de finance).

Press coverage: La Tribune, Le Monde, Le Monde, LCP

Summary from Malgouyres (2017) in Journal of Regional Science. 

How has competition from Chinese exports affected the French labor market? This article aims to answer this question by exploiting the variation in exposure to competition from China across employment zones. The results suggest that around 13% of the decline in manufacturing employment in France from 2001 to 2007 is due to Chinese competition. The adverse effect on hourly wages is uniform along the wage distribution in the manufacturing sector, and concentrated in the middle of the distribution in the other sectors. The impact on the lowest wages is small, probably as a result of the lower limit set by the statutory minimum wage. 

The estimated impacts do not necessarily imply that trade with China has not been generally beneficial. An assessment in terms of welfare would require the measurement of gains to consumers and firms that use imported intermediate goods – and whose productivity gains also ultimately benefit consumers.