(single-authored)
Revise and Resubmit at the Review of Economics and Statistics
Abstract: How can short episodes of localized hostility shape regional economic trajectories that even amplify over time? I exploit economic differences across the idiosyncratic and short-lived line of contact between the Red Army and the Western Allies in South Austria at the end of WWII. The hostile presence of the Red Army for 74 days shaped the age- and occupation-structure via refugee flows causing amplifying effects over time and backwardness in sector development and tax figures. These findings also point to the isolated role of the Red Army's hostile actions after WWII in understanding the European economic East-West divide.
(with Lukas Schmid)
[Read current version] [CESifo Working Paper 11903 (May 2025)] [CERGE-EI Working Paper 796 (May 2025)]
Abstract: We examine how, when, and for how long adverse health shocks shape health-related attitudes and behaviors, and perceptions of future-oriented policies. We utilize self-digitized, individual-level death and vaccination records, and policy voting data around the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exposure to influenza causes opposing effects: places with predominantly indirectly-affected families reduce support for public health measures, while direct family exposure increases it. This suggests a U-shaped relationship between suffering and support for health policies. Our findings reveal divergent public responses to health crises and explain recent post-pandemic declines in vaccination rates and trust in health authorities in the U.S. and worldwide.
Media attention: DENNIK N (Interview in Czech/Slovak), CERGE-EI Blog (Interview)
(with Sinara Gharibyan (PhD Candidate at CERGE-EI) and Monika Koeppl-Turyna (EcoAustria & WU Vienna))
[Read current version] [CESifo Working Paper (available in August)]
Abstract: How do losses during wars affect the gender divide in voting and the support of nation-building? We use the unique voting system in Austria's First Republic (1918 to 1934), which reported election results by gender. We link local war-affectedness during World War I to subsequent gender differences in turnout and voting. Higher war exposure increases women's turnout much more than men's, but only in national elections and not in local elections. This turnout gap translates one-to-one into higher vote shares for anti-state parties that aimed to undermine the Austrian state. The gender gap is particularly pronounced by losses perceived as senseless, amplified by local cultural values in smaller and remote places. Our results show that victimization after wars undermines the ruling order in a gendered way.