(with Lukas Schmid, University of Lucerne)
[Read current version] [CESifo Working Paper 11903 (May 2025)] [CERGE-EI Working Paper 796 (May 2025)]
Abstract: We examine how, when, and for how long adverse health shocks shape health-related attitudes and behaviors, and perceptions of future-oriented policies. We utilize self-digitized, individual-level death and vaccination records, and policy voting data around the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exposure to influenza causes opposing effects: places with predominantly indirectly-affected families reduce support for public health measures, while direct family exposure increases it. This suggests a U-shaped relationship between suffering and support for health policies. Our findings reveal divergent public responses to health crises and explain recent post-pandemic declines in vaccination rates and trust in health authorities in the U.S. and worldwide.
Media attention: DENNIK N (Interview in Czech/Slovak), CERGE-EI Blog (Interview)
(with Sinara Gharibyan (IOS/Uni Regensburg) and Monika Koeppl-Turyna (EcoAustria & WU Vienna))
[Read current version] [CESifo Working Paper (available soon after final revision)]
Abstract: How do losses during wars affect the gender divide in voting and the support of nation-building? We use the unique voting system in Austria's First Republic (1918 to 1934), which reported election results by gender. We link local war-affectedness during World War I to subsequent gender differences in turnout and voting. Higher war exposure increases women's turnout much more than men's, but only in national elections and not in local elections. This turnout gap translates one-to-one into higher vote shares for anti-state parties that aimed to undermine the Austrian state. The gender gap is particularly pronounced by losses perceived as senseless, amplified by local cultural values in smaller and remote places. Our results show that victimization after wars undermines the ruling order in a gendered way.
(with Flavio Malnati, EUBA)
[Read current version] [CESifo Working Paper (available soon after final revision)]
Abstract: We explore the causal effects of access to the most transformative transportation technology of the 20th century—automobiles—on regional economic growth patterns. We use the unexpected repeal of Grisons' 25-year-long carban in 1925 in difference-in-differences and event-study setups. Our findings show an immediate increase in entrepreneurial activity right after the end of the carban in Grisons compared to neighboring Swiss regions. The initial boom lasted for two years and was substantial: firm registrations increased by around 50\%, driven by manufacturing and retail. The initial boom was uniformly distributed across space, while long-run economic gains, measured by firm survival and increases in taxable income, remain concentrated in ex-ante larger and better-connected municipalities. Our study shows how automobiles shaped entrepreneurial expectations, creating boom-and-bust dynamics in remote places and contributing to the long-run disparities of economic activity—effects that are likely at play with other transformative technologies.
(with Lusine Davtyan-Ivanov (PhD Candidate at CERGE-EI, Sinara Gharibyan (IOS/Uni Regensburg), and Gregor Pfeifer (University of Sydney))
[Full draft available upon request]
Abstract: We study how exposure to a peer's surprise success affects subsequent competitive behavior of sport professionals and whether these responses differ by gender. We use Alpine Ski World Cup data from 2002 to 2025, which provides frequent surprise successes in which subsequent improved performance and failure jointly reveal changes in strategic risk-taking. We link unexpectedly strong performances (surprise success) by athletes to the subsequent competitive behavior of their peers with similar ex ante track records. We find that exposure to peer surprise success increases risk-taking, leading to higher failure rates but improved performance when the risk-taking strategy succeeds. The effects are particularly pronounced for emerging athletes, for whom we also find the largest gender gap. Behavioral responses are generally stronger among men, although gender differences in final rewards that combine improved performance and higher failure rates are limited. Our findings show how peer success shapes strategic behavior in repeated competition, with broader implications in labor markets, entrepreneurship, and finance.