The Review of Economics and Statistics (accepted, pending replication package)
(single-authored)
Abstract: How can short episodes of localized hostility shape regional economic trajectories that even amplify over time? I exploit economic differences across the idiosyncratic and short-lived line of contact between the Red Army and the Western Allies in South Austria at the end of WWII. The hostile presence of the Red Army for 74 days shaped the age- and occupation-structure via refugee flows causing amplifying effects over time and backwardness in sector development and tax figures. These findings also point to the isolated role of the Red Army's hostile actions after WWII in understanding the European economic East-West divide.
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol. 16(3), July 2024, pp. 76-112 (with Felix Roesel)
[Access via AEA site] [Access pre-print] [Replication files]
Abstract: We show that history stored in collective memories and activated by political campaigns can create xenophobia and radicalization. Turkish troops besieged Vienna in 1529 and 1683 and pillaged individual Austrian villages, killing and kidnapping in the process. Attacked places remember those events well, but never expressed aversion to Muslims until far-right populists started to campaign against Turks and Muslims in the mid-2000s. We find that anti-Muslim sentiments and far-right voting surge in previously attacked places after the populist campaigns were launched, and Turkish communities decrease in response. Historical narratives in political campaigns can mobilize both beliefs and actions.
Awards: Heinz König Young Economist Award 2019 by the ZEW
Scientific Acclaim: American Economic Association Research Highlight (AEA Interview) | The NEP-HIS Blog | CERGE-EI Blog
Media Attention: Der Spiegel (online), Mandiner, Die Presse (print only)
The Economic Journal, Vol. 130(628), May 2020, pp. 1135–1172 (with Felix Roesel)
[Access via EJ site] [Read] [Replication files]
Abstract: We show that migrating extremists can shape political equilibria in the long run. Regions in Austria that witnessed an influx of Nazis fleeing the Soviets after WWII still have significantly higher far-right vote shares today. Institutions and family ties perpetuate persistence. Migrated Nazi elites founded and penetrated local party branches that cultivate and preserve far-right ideologies, even when outside conditions temporarily change. Phonebook entries from 1942 allow tracing current far-right party membership back to past migration. Our results suggest that controlling migrating extremists is crucial to contain the spread of radical movements.
Awards: Young Economist Award of the Austrian Economic Association // Hans Raupach Best Paper Award of the 8th IOS/APB/EACE Summer Academy
Media Attention: The Times, Wiener Zeitung, Nederlands Dagblad, Courthouse News Service, ZAP.aeiou, Der Standard, Die Presse, ORF Science, Österreich (oe24), Westdeutsche Zeitung, among others