Research

Working Papers

• Global Sectoral Supply Shocks, Inflation, and Monetary Policy, with Moaz Elsayed and Magali Marx [SSRN id=4651805, December 2023]

• Decomposing the Inflation Response to Weather-Related Disasters, with Erwan Gautier, Magali Marx and Paul Vertier [BdF-WP 935, December 2023] - submitted

• Committed to Flexible Fiscal Rules, with Laura Pagenhardt and Malte Rieth [BdF-WP 854, December 2021] - submitted.

• Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: Do Inflation Target Formulations Matter? [BdF-WP 852, December 2021] - R&R Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

Published papers

• Inflation Targeting as a Shock Absorber, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 123, March 2020, 1-16,
  with Marcel Fratzscher and Malte Rieth, doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103308 [related VoxEU column]

• Collective Action Clauses in the Euro Area: A Law and Economics Analysis of the First Five Years, Capital Markets Law Journal, Vol. 14(2), March 2019, 134-154, with Sebastian Grund and Julian Schumacher, doi:10.1093/cmlj/kmz001. [covered by: Credit Slips blog, Oxford Business Law Blog]

• Sovereign Risk, Interbank Freezes, and Aggregate Fluctuations, European Economic Review, Vol. 87, August 2016, 34-61,www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/research/authors/profiles/monetary-policy-committee-taskforce-on-rate-forward-guidance-and-reinvestment.en.html
  with Philipp Engler, doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.02.012.

Other publications

• The effects of weather-related disasters on prices in French overseas territories, with E. Gautier, M. Marx and P. Vertier, Blog Banque de France N°347, 12/03/2024  [en/fr]

• Wage indexation to prices and inflation expectation anchoring, with M.S. Pagliari and G. Smagghue, Blog Banque de France N°335, 21/12/2023 [en/fr]

• Advantages of point targets and drawbacks of target ranges, with M. Marx, Blog Banque de France N°261, 15/03/2022 [en/fr]

• Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: a Eurosystem stock-taking assessment, ECB Occasional Paper, no. 290, 2 March 2022 [pdf]

• The ECB's price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges, ECB Occasional Paper, no. 269, September 2021 [pdf] 

• Can inflation targeting help to absorb shocks from natural disasters?, with M. Fratzscher and M. Rieth, Blog Banque de France N°72, 19/06/2018, [en/fr]

• Beggar-thy-Neighbour QE?, with A. Penalver and A. Lojschova, Blog Banque de France N°45, 18/01/2018, [en/fr]

• Non-standard liquidity measures and fiscal sustainability in the euro area, Blog Banque de France N°44, 12/01/2018, [en/fr]

• Interest rate lift-off in the US: moderate impact to date, but emerging markets should brace themselves,
  DIW Economic Bulletin 14/2016, [download, en/de] -- Interview [download, de] in German only

• GDP-Linked Loans for Greece, with M. Fratzscher and M. Rieth, DIW Economic Bulletin 9/2014, [download, en/de]
  covered by: Financial Times, Sueddeutsche, Stern, Marginal Revolution

• Debt restructuring in the Euro Area: How can sovereign debt be restructured more effectively?, with J. Schumacher, DIW Economic Bulletin 10/2014, [download, en/de]

• Safe bonds for the European Monetary Union: Strengthening the bailout ban with more robust financial system, with P. Engler, DIW Economic Bulletin 10/2014, [download, en/de]  --  Interview [download, de] in German only

• The safe asset controversy: Policy implications after the crisis, DIW Roundup 3/2014, [download, en/de]

• Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung, Take a look at the Quarterly Economic Outlook of the DIW Berlin Forecasting Group, [Link]

Older Working Papers

• Ambiguity and Time-Varying Risk Aversion in Sovereign Debt Markets, with Maximilian Podstawski  [DIW Berlin Discussion Paper 1602, July 2016].

• Uncertainty Shocks and Non-Fundamental Debt Crises: An Ambiguity Approach [SSRN id=2602716, May 2015].

• Business Cycles with Financial Intermediation in Emerging Economies [SSRN id=2640121, August 2015].