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Notes. The solid black line denotes the posterior mean of the composite Global Supply Chain Tension Index (GSTIX), obtained by summing the historical contributions of transportation and input-production supply shocks to supplier delivery times and real transportation costs. Positive values indicate above-average global supply-chain tensions, while negative values indicate below-average tensions. Blue/golden bars represent a decomposition of the posterior-mean GSTIX into the contributions of transportation and input-production tensions. Labels highlight selected historical episodes that illustrate the dominant source of supply-chain tensions. Vertical grey bars denote NBER U.S. recessions.
GSTIX. Global Supply Chain Tension Indices
GSTIX. Global Supply Chain Tension Indices
Indices tracking tensions in global supply chains at monthly frequency. Based on an empirical model with structural interpretation and dynamic propagation, the indices summarize tensions in supply chains related to transportation services disruptions, input production disruptions, and global activity-induced congestion along supply chains.
Original sample period: January 1969 to December 2025
📌 Regular updates available on WEBSTAT [link]
Ref: "The Sources of Global Supply Chain Tensions" ,M. Elsayed, C. Grosse-Steffen and M. Marx, Banque de France working paper, No. 1026.
Notes: Hurricane data from IBTrACS. Green circles show all recorded hurricanes from 1970Q1-2020Q4; pink circles are filtered using a maximum distance from populated places that are larger than 100k habitants (black dots). Imaging showing data before conversion to quarterly panel, produced with QGIS.
GEMQ. Geophysical and meteorological data quarterly
GEMQ. Geophysical and meteorological data quarterly
[download] Dataset with geophysical and meteorological intensity and distance to populated areas with global coverage in country-panel format. Download as dta and csv.
Hurricanes (knots), 1970Q1-2020Q4
Volcanic eruptions (volcanic eruption index), 1970Q1-2020Q4
Earthquakes (Richter), 1970Q1-2020Q4
Ref: "Committed to Flexible Fiscal Rules", C. Grosse-Steffen, L. Pagenhardt and M. Rieth, Journal of Monetary Economics, 154 (September 2025), 103809 [DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103809].
(see Online Appendix A.6 for details)
Notes: Inflation target formulations of central banks as of April 2020. Red dots indicate focal points, and black whiskers indicate an explicit range as part of the official description of the inflation target objective.
ITFORM. The Inflation Target Formulation Database
ITFORM. The Inflation Target Formulation Database
[download] Database with global and comprehensive classification of all IT formulations and their evolution over time. Download database as dta for stata.
Point targets
Target ranges
Hybrid targets, combining focal points and tolerance bands
Complementary data on the numerical values of focal points and ranges, IT introduction date, the inflation measure, and classification of the end of the disinflationary process (stableIT) are part of the database. The zip folder contains stata codes to reproduce descriptive Figures.
Ref.: "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations: Do Target Formulations Matter?", C. Grosse-Steffen, Banque de France working paper, No. 852.
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