Research

Working Papers 

• Road Networks and Tropical Deforestation (with Gerard van der Meijden and Cees Withagen). [coming soon]

• The Power of Prices: How Fast do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks?  (with Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella, Ervin Prifti, Martin Stuermer). [IMP WP version]

• How do Economic Growth and Food Inflation Affect Food Insecurity? (with Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti). [new WP coming soon] [old IMF working paper]

• What Drives Energy Demand? The Role of Economic Development and Manufacturing Across Centuries  (with Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto and Andrea Pescatori). [latest working paper] [IMF working paper] (IMF-WB Annual Meetings Analytical Corner presentation)

• The Globalization of Farmland and the Pursuit of Food Self-Sufficiency (with Rabah Arezki and Harris Selod). [working paper]

Peer-reviewed Articles

• The Impact of Climate Policy on Oil and Gas Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Data (with Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti). European Economic Review, 2024.

[IMF working paper]

• Can Global Aquaculture Growth Help to Conserve Wild Fish Stocks? Theory and Empirical Analysis (with Daan van Soest). Natural Resource Modeling, 2021. [working paper version] 

• Optimal Adaptation of Thermal Power Plants: the (Ir)relevance of Climate (Change) Information. (with G. Dijkema and M. van Vliet) 

       Energy Economics, 2017, vol. 62, pp. 1-18. [working paper version] 

• Can the Terms of Trade Externality Outweigh Free-Riding? The Role of Vertical Linkages

      Journal of International Economics, 2015, vol. 95(1), pp. 115-128. [working paper version]

• Climate Adaptation of Interconnected Infrastructures: a Framework for Supporting Governance (with L.A. Bollinger, G.P.J. Dijkema, M. Snelder and others). Regional Environmental Change, 2013, pp. 1-13.

• Does Corruption Discourage International Trade? (with E. de Jong).

      European Journal of Political Economy, 2011, vol. 27(2), pp. 385-398.

• The Pollution Haven Hypothesis: a Dynamic Perspective (with C. Withagen)

      Revue Economique , 2010, vol. 61(1), pp. 103-130.

Other Publications, Writings & Blogs

• The impact of climate policies on oil and gas investment. VoxEU, October 29, 2023. (with Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti)

• Global Food Prices to Remain Elevated Amid War, Costly Energy, La Niña. IMFBlog, December 2022. (With Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti)

• War-Fueled Surge in Food Prices to Hit Poorer Nations Hardest, IMFBlog, March 2022. (With Jeff Kearns,  Andrea Pescatori,  and Ervin Prifti) 

• Four Facts about Soaring Consumer Food Prices, IMFBlog, June 2021. (with Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti)

• Food (in)security: A potentially underrated collateral damage of the pandemic, VoxEU, June 5, 2021. (with Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti)

• A Greener Future Begins with a Shift to Coal Alternatives. IMFBlog, December 2020. (with Claire Mengyi Li)

• Finding the Right Policy Mix to Safeguard our Climate. IMFBlog, October 2020. (with Philip Barret, Florence Jaumotte, Oya Celasun and others)

• Global Carbon Emissions Are on the Rise Again. IMFBlog Chart of the Week, December 2019.

• Our Common Energy Future: What do 167 years of data say?  IMF Research Perspectives, Vol 20 (1), Spring/Summer 2019.

• Falling Costs make Wind, Solar more affordable. IMFBlog Chart of the Week, April 2019.

• A Bumpy Road Ahead for Electric Cars. IMFBlog Chart of the Week, August 2018.

• Q&A: Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland, IMF Research Bulletin, September 2017.

IMF Policy and Research Contributions

• The Power of Prices: How Fast do Commodity Markets Adjust to Shocks? Commodity Special Feature, in: Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2024. 

(with Andrea Pescatori, Ivan Petrella, Ervin Prifti, and Martin Stuermer.) 

• The Commodity Price Channel of Monetary Policy. Commodity Special Feature, in: Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, September 2023. 

 (with Andrea Pescatori, Jorge Miranda Pinto, Ervin Prifti, and Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos.) 

• Drivers of Global Food Prices and Transmission to Food Price Inflation. Commodity Special Feature, in: Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook,  October 2022. (with Andrea Pescatori and Ervin Prifti.) 

• The Pace of Fossil Fuel Divestment. Commodity Special Feature, in: Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2022.

       (with Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti, Martin Stürmer, and Nico Valckx)

       [Media coverage: Financial Post, Seeking Alpha]

• Food insecurity: Collateral Damage of the Pandemic? Commodity Special Feature, in: Chapter 1, World Economic Outlook, April 2021.

       (with Andrea Pescatori, Ervin Prifti, and Nico Valckx)

• Mitigating Climate Change: Growth and Distribution-Friendly Strategies, Analytical Chapter 3 in: World Economic Outlook, October 2020. (with Philip Barrett, Benjamin Carton, Johannes Eugster, Florence Jaumotte, Adil  Mohommad, Evgenia Pugacheva, Marina M. Tavares, and Simon Voigts.)

       [Media coverage: Paul Krugman in the NYT, Martin Wolf in the FT]

•  Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts with a Focus on Coal: Past, Present, and Future”, World Economic Outlook, October 2020. (with Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto and Andrea Pescatori and Julia Xueliang Wang)

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts with a Focus on Commodity Prices and Economic Activity. World Economic Outlook, April 2019. (with Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto, Andrea Pescatori and Julia Xueliang Wang)

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts with a Focus on Recent Trends in Energy Demand. World Economic Outlook, October 2018. (with Lama Kiyasseh, Akito Matsumoto, Andrea Pescatori and Julia Xueliang Wang).

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts. World Economic Outlook, April 2018. (with Akito Matsumoto and Rachel Yuting Fan)

• The Globalization of Farmland (in: Chapter 3). Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018.

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts. World Economic Outlook, October 2017. (with Akito Matsumoto and Rachel Yuting Fan)

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on the Role of Technology and Unconventional Sources in the Global Oil Market. World Economic Outlook, April 2017.  (with Rabah Arezki, Claudia Berg and Akito Matsumoto)

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Food Security and Markets in the World Economy. World Economic Outlook, October 2016. (with Rabah Arezki, Claudia Berg and Akito Matsumoto)

• Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on the Energy Transition in an Era of Low Fossil Fuel Prices. World Economic Outlook, April 2016. (with Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto).