Research

Working papers and work in progress

• • Schmanski, Bennet, Chiara Scotti, Clara Vega, and Hedi Benamar (2023). "Fed Communication, News, and Echo Chambers," working paper.  

  • Scotti, Chiara (2023). "Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2308, July 2023.

  • Caldara, Dario, Chiara Scotti and Molin Zhong (2023).  "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," Working Paper

  • Azar, Pablo D., Garth Baughman, Francesca Carapella, Jacob Gerszten, Arazi Lubis, JP Perez-Sangimino, David E. Rappoport, Chiara Scotti, Nathan Swem, Alexandros Vardoulakis, Aurite Werman (2022). “The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-058. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

  • Brunetti, Celso, Matthew Carl, Jacob Gerszten, Chaehee Shin, and Chiara Scotti (2022). “Interconnectedness in the Corporate Bond Market,” working paper.

  • Converse, Nathan,  Stephanie Curcuru, Aaron Rosenblum, and Chiara Scotti (2019). “Pushing or Pulling? Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Tightening, and International Capital Flows ,” working paper

Publications

• • Gardner,  Ben, Chiara Scotti and Clara Vega (2022). "Words Speak As Loudly As Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements,"  Journal of Econometrics. (FOMC Sentiment Index Data) 

  • Clarida, Rihcard H,. Chiara Scotti and Burcu Duygan-Bump (2021). "The COVID-19 crisis and the Federal Reserve’s policy response," in Monetary policy and central banking in the Covid era: A new e-book, edited by Bill English, Kirstin Forbes and Angel Ubide.

  • Aramonte, Sirio, Chiara Scotti and Ilknur Zer (2020). "Measuring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds,"  International Journal of Central Banking, vol.16, no. 5, pp.143-178.

  • Barbarino, Alessandro, and Chiara Scotti (2020). "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Macroeconomic Surprises, and Uncertainty: Is a Recession Looming?" in C. James Hueng (ed.), Alternative Economic Indicators, chapter 5, pp. 57-80. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. 

  • Bowman, David, Chiara Scotti, and Cindy M. Vojtech (2020). "How Correlated is LIBOR with Bank Funding Costs?," FEDS Notes 2020-06-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  • Aramonte, Sirio, Chiara Scotti, and Ilknur Zer (2020). "Monitoring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," FEDS Notes 2020-05-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  • Demiralp, Selva, Sharmila King, and Chiara Scotti (2019). "Does Anyone Listen when Politician Talk? The Effect of Political Commentaries on Policy Rate Decisions and Expectations" Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 95, pp. 95-111 .

  • Rogers, John Harold, Chiara Scotti, and Jonathan H. Wright (2018). "Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 50 (8), pp. 1827-1850  (media coverage)

  • Gilbert, Thomas, Chiara Scotti, Georg Strasser, and Clara Vega (2017). "Is the Intrinsic Value of a Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to its Asset Price Impact?"Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.92, pp. 78-95.

  • Scotti, Chiara (2016). "Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 82, pp. 1-19. (Updated Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes)

  • Scotti, Chiara (2014). "Comment on 'Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences'," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 504-506.

  • Rogers, John Harold, Chiara Scotti, and Jonathan H. Wright (2014). "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Multi-Country Review," Economic Policy, vol. 29, no. 80, pp. 3-50.

  • Scotti, Chiara (2011). "A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 37-78.

  • Ammer, John, Fang Cai, and Chiara Scotti (2011). "Has International Financial Co-Movement Changed? Emerging Markets in the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis," in Batten, Jonathan, Peter G. Szilagyi eds., The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Emerging Financial Markets. Bingley: United Kingdom: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 231-253.

  • Aruoba, S. Boragan, Francis Diebold X., and Chiara Scotti (2009). "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 417-427. (Philadelphia Fed Webpage and data)

  • Brunetti, Celso, Chiara Scotti, Roberto S. Mariano, and Augustine H. H. Tan (2008). "Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 104-128.

Other Work

• • Scotti, Chiara (1999). "Modelling the Term Structure of Futures Commodity Prices: An Empirical Analysis in the Copper Market," Rivista di Politica Economica, vol. 89, no. 12, pp. 67-102.

  • Benediktsdottir, Sigridur, and Chiara Scotti (2009). "Exchange Rates Dependence: What Drives it?" International Finance Discussion Papers 969. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).