WORKING PAPERS
Medium and long-term outlook for the Swiss Confederation’s debt: when are adjustments needed, and by how much? (2023), background study for Alliance Sud. Version française, Perspectives pour la dette de la Confédération à moyen et long terme : quels sont les horizon et l’ampleur des ajustements?
What Drives Long-Term Interest Rates? Evidence from the Entire Swiss Franc History 1852-2020 (2022), with Niko Hauzenberger, Daniel Kaufmann, and Rebecca Stuart, University of Neuchâtel IRENE working paper 22-03.
PUBLISHED PAPERS
Changing Structure and Challenges of the International Financial System: Imbalances, Currencies, and Financial Stability (2026), Valentina Bruno, Steven Kamin, and Angel Ubide, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 29. Book launch presentation, Petersons Institute for International Economics, September 30, 2026.
ECB monetary policy after the disinflation (2025), with Cinzia Alcidi and Ignazio Angeloni. Monetary Dialogue Paper of the ECON committee, Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit (EGOV), European Parliament.
International Investment Income: Patterns, Drivers, and Heterogeneous Sensitivities (2025, with Giovanni Donato, IMF Economic Review. Working paper version CEPR Discussion Paper 19251; Kiel Institute for the World Economy Working Paper 2271; GIIDS Working Paper 13-2024. Related Vox column.
US digital asset strategy and the European response (2025), with Ignazio Angeloni. Monetary Dialogue Paper of the ECON committee, Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit (EGOV), European Parliament.
The global financial cycle and capital flows: Taking stock (2025), with Beatrice Scheubel and Livio Stracca, Journal of Economic Survey 39 (3), pp. 777-1324. Working paper version (The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link? ) European Central Bank Working Paper 2337
Unpredictable Tariffs by the US: Implications for the euro area and its monetary policy (2025), with Cinzia Alcidi and Ignazio Angeloni. Monetary Dialogue Paper of the ECON committee, Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit (EGOV), European Parliament. Blog post at the Center for Economic Policy Studies. Model appendix.
Columns
Changing structure and challenges of the international financial system: Imbalances, currencies, and financial stability, with Valentina Bruno, Steven Kamin, and Angel Ubide, Vox, September 30, 2026.
Global Finance, Swiss Precision: Lessons from U.S. Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank & Academia, interview to Persuasive Discourse Switzerland, June 4, 2025
Columns in l'Agefi newspaper
La croissance suisse revue à la hausse -- Swiss growth revised upward, September 22, 2026
Le marché du travail américain se péjore -- The U.S. labor market is deteriorating, August 20, 2026
La rapidité de certains changements a soutenu le oui le 14 juin -- The rapid pace of certain changes fueled support for the «yes» vote on June 14, June 22, 2026
Le revenu national suisse stagne-t-il? -- Is the Swiss national income stagnant?, May 15, 2026
La hausse de la population ne péjore pas le niveau de vie en Suisse -- Population increase does not weight on the Swiss standard of living, April 28, 2026
La stabilité en trompe-l’œil de l'emploi aux Etats-Unis -- The Deceptive Stability of the U.S. Job Market, April 9, 2026
La croissance en 2025 fut moins solide qu’il n’y paraît -- Swiss 2025 growth is less solid than it seems, March 3, 2026
Ce que révèlent les chiffres du surplus commercial de la Suisse -- What Switzerland's trade surplus figures reveal, January 27, 2026