Publications

Papers

The global financial cycle and capital flows: Taking stock (2024), with Beatrice Scheubel and Livio Stracca, Journal of Economic Survey, pp. 1-27.  Working paper version (The global financial cycle and capital flow episodes: a wobbly link? ) European Central Bank Working Paper 2337

 The «burden» of Swiss public debt: Lessons from research and options for the future (2020),  CEPR Policy Insight 101, working paper version GIIDS Working Paper 14/2019 (english) GIIDS Working Paper 15/2019 (french, Le «fardeau» de la dette publique suisse : Eclairages des recherches scientifiques et pistes pour le futur). Related Vox column.

Taming the Global Financial Cycle: What role for the Global Financial Safety Net? (2019), with Beatrice Scheubel and Livio Stracca, Journal of International Money and Finance 94, pp. 160-182.  Link to Science Direct Related Vox column.

Do Swiss Foreign Assets hedge the Business Cycle? (2018), with Nicolas Stoffels, Aussenwirtschaft, 69.1, pp. 1-44.

Les liens économiques entre la Suisse et le monde: une situation en pleine évolution (2017), in Essays in Monetary Economic Issues Today – Festchrift in Honour of Ernst Baltensperger, the Swiss National Bank ed., Orell Füssli, Zürich, pp. 75-92. Working paper version (The Changing International Linkages of Switzerland: an Overview): CEPR Discussion Paper 12176,  Kiel Institute for the World Economy Working Paper 2088, GIIDS Working Paper 14/2017.

On the roles of different foreign currencies in European bank lending (2017), with Signe Krogstrup, in International Currency Exposure, Yin-Wong Cheung and Frank Westermann ed., CES-Ifo seminar serie, pp. 67-94. Working paper version: CEPR Working Paper 10845; Kiel Institute for the World Economy Working Paper 2007; Graduate Institute Working Paper 17-2015; CESIfo Working Paper 5535; Swiss National Bank Working Paper 2016-07. A column based on this work appears in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung: Die Rolle des Frankens im Ausland. Die Schweizer Währung als besondere Fremdwährung, August 18, 2015.

Micro, Macro, and Strategic Forces in International Trade Invoicing: Synthesis and Novel Patterns (2016), with Linda Goldberg, Journal of International Economics, vol. 102, pp. 173-187. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: CEPR Discussion Paper 7534; NBER Working Paper 15470; Federal Reserve Bank of New York Working Paper 405; FinRisk Working Paper 589;   HKIMR Working Paper 8/2010. Detailed technical appendix. Related Vox column.

The banking sector and the Swiss financial account during the financial and European debt crises (2016), with Raphael Auer, Aussenwirtschaft, 67.2, pp. 69-97. Working paper version: Swiss National Bank Working Paper 2016-05.

Do Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth? (2015), with Claude Lopez and Matthieu Bussière, Economic Policy, 81, pp. 5-45. Working paper version: CEPR Working Paper 9938; Graduate Institute Working Paper 6/2014 ; Kiel Institute for the World Economy Working Paper 1922 ; MPRA paper 54892. A previous version,Currency Crises in Reverse: Do Large Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth? (2013), is available as MPRA paper 44096. Related Vox column.

International Capital Flows under Dispersed Private Information (2014), with Eric van Wincoop, Journal of International Economics, vol. 93(1), pp. 31-49. Link to ScienceDirect

Solving DSGE Portfolio Choice Models with Dispersed Information (2014), with Eric van Wincoop, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 40, pp. 1-24. Link to ScienceDirect. The JIE paper focuses on the implications for international capital flows, and the JEDC paper focuses on the methodological contribution. Working paper version for both papers (International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence, 2008): CEPR Discussion Paper 6989; NBER Working Paper 14390; FinRisk Working Paper 502. Detailed technical appendix.

Self-Fullfilling Risk Panics (2012), with Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop, American Economic Review, 102 (7), pp. 3674-3700. Working paper version: CEPR Discussion Paper 7920; NBER Working Paper 16159; FinRisk Working Paper 619; Graduate Institute Working Paper 17/2010; HKIMR Working Paper 28/2010. Detailed technical appendix. Related Vox column.

Sailing through this Storm? Capital Flows in Asia during the Crisis (2012), Pacific Economic Review, 17(3), pp. 467-488. Working paper version: HKIMR Working Paper 20/2011

Regulating Asset Price Risk (2011), with Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101, pp. 410-412. Working paper version: FinRisk Working Paper 673; Graduate Institute Working Paper 02/2011.

The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows during the Global Financial Crisis (2010), with Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Economic Policy 66, pp. 285-330. Working paper version: Graduate Institute Working Paper 18/2010, HKIMR Working Paper 38/2011.

International Capital Flows (2010), with Eric van Wincoop, Journal of International Economics,  80, pp. 157-175. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: CEPR Discussion Paper 6705; NBER Working Paper 12856; Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 280; FinRisk Working Paper 450. Detailed technical appendix.

A New Perspective on “The New Rule”of the Current Account (2010), with Eric van Wincoop, Journal of International Economics, 80, pp. 89-99. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: FinRisk Working Paper 542. Detailed technical appendix.

Macroeconomic Interdependence and the International Role of the Dollar (2009), with Linda Goldberg, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, pp. 990-1003. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: CEPR Discussion Paper 6704; NBER Working Paper 13820, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 316, FinRisk Working Paper 451. Detailed technical appendix.

Are the Golden Years of Central Banking Over? The Crisis and the Challenges (2009), with Stefan Gerlach, Alberto Giovannini, and Jose Vinals, Geneva Report on the World Economy 10, July. Related Vox column.

 Composition of International Assets and the Long Run Current Account (2008), Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (37), pp. 283–313. Related Vox column.

 Vehicle currency use in international trade (2008), with Linda Goldberg, Journal of International Economics, 76, pp. 177-192. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 200, NBER Working Paper 11127. Detailed technical appendix.

 The Changing Nature of the U.S. Balance of Payments (2008), with Rebecca Hellerstein, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 14 (4), Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Related Vox column.

 Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations (2008), Journal of International Economics, vol. 75, pp. 283-294. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 226. Detailed technical appendix.

 Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices and external adjustment (2007), in IMF World Economic Outlook, ch.3 box 3.3., April, pp. 100-102.

 Borrowing without debt? Interpreting the U.S. international investment position (2007), with Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard, Business Economics 42, no. 1, National Association for Business Economics, January, pp. 17-27. This paper was awarded an Abramson Scroll for outstanding articles by the National Association of Business Economics. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 271.

 On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations (2006), Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 25, pp. 1207-1225. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 146.

 The international role of the dollar and trade balance adjustment (2006), with Linda Goldberg, Group of Thirty Occasional Paper 71. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 255,  NBER Working Paper 12495.

 Current account adjustment with high financial integration: A scenario analysis (2006), with Michele Cavallo, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, March, pp. 31-46. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 237, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2006-3.

 The income implications of rising U.S. international liabilities (2005), with Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 11(12), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 The welfare effect of international asset markets integration under nominal rigidities (2005), Journal of International Economics, vol. 65, pp. 221-247. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 114. Detailed technical appendix.

 Coping with terms-of-trade shocks in developing countries (2003), with Christian Broda, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 9 (11), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt (2003), Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 9 (1), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 Exchange rate pass-through and the welfare effect of the euro (2003), with Michael Devereux and Charles Engel, International Economic Review, vol. 44, pp. 223-252. Working paper version: NBER Working Paper 7382. Detailed technical appendix.

 To what extent does productivity drive the dollar? (2001), with Olga Gorbachev and Nicolas Stoffels, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 7 (8), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 Curbing unemployment in Europe: Are there lessons from Ireland and the Netherlands? (2001), with Kei-Mu Yi, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, vol. 7 (5), Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 The role of consumption substitutability in the international transmission of shocks (2001), Journal of International Economics, vol. 53, pp. 421-444. Link to ScienceDirect. Reprinted in Open Economy Macroeconomics (N.C. Miller ed.), a contribution to The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, 2006. Working paper version: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report 67.

 The economics of currency crisis and contagion: An introduction (2000), with Paolo Pesenti, Economic Policy Review 6, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, pp. 3-16.

 Competitive devaluations: toward a welfare-based approach (2000), with Giancarlo Corsetti, Paolo Pesenti and Nouriel Roubini, Journal of International Economics, vol. 51, pp. 217-241. Link to ScienceDirect. Working paper version: NBER Working Paper 6889.

 Decomposition of the unemployment gap between Canada and the United States: Duration or incidence? (1998), Canadian Public Policy, XXIV.

Edited volume

DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as intended (2017), with Refet Gürkaynak, Vox Ebook. Related Vox column.

Discussions

Time to ship during financial crises (2012), by Nicolas Berman, José de SOusa, Philippe Martin and Thierry Mayer, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics.

Lessons form a Collapse of a Financial System (2011), by Sigridur Benediktsdottir, Jon Danielsson and Gylfi Zoega, Economic Policy 66, pp. 225-228.

Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium (2010), by Geert Bekaert and Xiaozheng Wang, Economic Policy 64, pp. 796-799.

Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis (2010), by Bennett McCallum, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 146, pp. 121-125.

A Safer World Financial System: Improving the Resolution of Systemic Institutions (2010), by Stijn Claessens, Richard Herring and Dirk Schoenmaker, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 12, pp. 122.

 Banking crisis management in the EU: an early assessment (2010), by Jean Pisany-Ferry and André Sapir, Economic Policy 62, pp. 362-367.

Returns on FDI: Does the U.S. Really Do Better? (2007), by Barry Bosworth, Susan Collins and Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Brookings Trade Forum 2007: FDI, Brookings Institution, pp. 201-206.

 The missing dark matter in the wealth of nations and its implications for global imbalances (2007), by Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger, Economic Policy 51, pp. 508-513.

Other publications

Les cryptomonnaies, une menace pour les banques centrales ? (2021), with Rosmarie Schlup, La Vie Economique, December, pp. 25-27.

Évolution des taux d’intérêt suisses : une perspective de 1852 à 2020. (2021), with Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Daniel Kaufmann, and Rebecca Stuart, La Vie Economique, July, pp. 7-9.

La Covid-19 en Suisse : les leçons des sciences économiques (2021), with Rafael Lalive,  La Vie Economique, March, pp. 32-34.

 Intégration financière et politique macroéconomique (2013), La Vie Economique, March, pp. 55-58.

Evolution du franc et fluctuations de la fortune suisse à l'étranger (2012), La Vie Economique, February, pp. 22-25.

La Suisse face à la crise: une comparaison internationale (2010), with Charles Wyplosz. Report commissioned by the Swiss parliament commission (Commission de gestion / Contrôle parlementaire de l'administration) as part of its assessment of economic management during the crisis: Les autorités sous la pression de la crise financière et de la transmission de données clients d'UBS aux Etats-Unis, Rapport des Commissions de gestion des Chambres fédérales du 30 mai 2010 (french, english).

La place financière suisse: une analyse macroéconomique (2010), La Vie Economique, April, pp. 12-14. Detailed tables and charts are here.

Nationalisation / Privatisation: Le cas des banques (2009), Revue Economique et Sociale 67 (4), pp. 29-38.