ANALYSIS BY COUNTRY of fossil fuel burning-based Carbon Debt and Carbon Credit

Analysis by Country of Fossil Fuel Burning-based Carbon Debt and Carbon Credit

By Dr Gideon Polya

The Historical Carbon Debt (aka Historical Climate Debt) of a country can be measured by the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) it has introduced into the atmosphere since the start of the Industrial revolution in the mid-18th century. The Carbon Credit (aka Climate Credit) of a country can be measured by the amount of GHG it can generate as its "fair share" of the 600 billion tonnes of CO2 the World is permitted to generate between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050 if it is to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise (EU policy). Historical Carbon debt minus Carbon Credit equals Net Carbon Debt - and when a negative number can be called Net Carbon Credit (aka Net Climate Credit).

Carbon Debt and Carbon Credit can be expressed in various ways and are synonymous with Climate Debt and Climate Credit, respectively . For the related "Climate Debt, Climate Credit" website see:https://sites.google.com/site/climatedebtclimatecredit/home .

This measure is complicated by the nature and decay in atmospheric GHG pollution. The World is increasingly threatened by man-made global warming due to pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs), principally carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), with this GHG pollution deriving mostly from fossil fuel burning and from land use (agriculture and deforestation). According to I.C. Prentice et al “Before the Industrial Era, circa 1750, the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration was 280 +/- 10 ppm for several thousand years. It has risen continuously since then, reaching 367 ppm in 1999” (see “The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide”, coordinating lead author I.C. Prentice: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-03.PDF ). The atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 394 ppm in 2010 with a rate of increase of 2.4 ppm per year ( see “Recent Mauna Loa CO2”, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ). Note that CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) is the greenhouse gas (GHG) amount taking all GHGs other than water (H2O) into account and expressing this in terms of CO2 equivalents, CO2 being largely responsible for the atmospheric GHG effect (excluding H2O) (see “2011 Climate Change Course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course ).

The Historical Carbon Debt (Historical Climate Debt) of the World (see “Climate Debt”, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_debt ) has been estimated at 12 Gt C (3.67 x 12 = 44 billion tonnes CO2) in 1751-1900 and 334 Gt C (3.67 x 334 = 1,226 billion tonnes CO2 for 1901-2008, for a total of 346 Gt C (or 1,270 Gt CO2) in the period 1751-2008 (see “Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere”, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere ). Most of the GHG pollution has occurred in the last half century.

In a 2008 letter to Australia PM Kevin Rudd, NASA’s Dr James Hansen provided a breakdown of global responsibility for fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution between 1751 and 2006 (see “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd by Dr James Hansen”, 2008: http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf ) that is summarized below as a percentage (%) of the Historical Carbon Debt (1751-2006) of 346 Gt C (= 3.67 x 346 = 1,270 Gt CO2).

Ships/air (4%) : 4% of 346 Gt C = 13.84 Gt C. This has been allocated proportionately to the other groups as shown below.

India (2.5%) = (0.025 x 346 = 8.65) + (2.5 x 13.84/96 = 0.36) = 9.01 Gt C = 3.67 x 9.01 = 33.07 Gt CO2.

Japan (3.9%) = 13.49 + 0.56 = 14.05 Gt C = 51.56 Gt CO2..

UK (6.0%) = 20.76 + 0.87 = 21.63 Gt C = 79.38 Gt CO2..

Germany (6.6%) = 22.84 + 0.95 = 23.79 Gt C = 87.31 Gt CO2.

Russia (7.4%) = 25.60 + 1.07 = 26.67 Gt C = 97.88 Gt CO2.

China (8.2%) = 28.37 + 1.18 = 29.55 Gt C = 108.45 Gt CO2.

USA (27.5%) = 95.15 + 3.97 = 99.12 Gt C = 363,77 Gt CO2.

Canada-Australia (3.1%) = 10.73 + 0.45 = 11.18 Gt C -> Canada 5.59 Gt C = 20.52 Gt CO2 & Australia 5.59 Gt C = 20.52Gt CO2.

Rest of Europe (18.0%) = 62.28 + 2.60 = 64.88 Gt C = 238.11Gt CO2.

Rest of World (12.8%) = 44.29 + 1.85 = 46.14 Gt C = 169,33 Gt CO2 .

Historical Carbon debt can be expressed in dollars by applying a Carbon Price and here we will use $100 per tonne CO2, roughly the price that could achieve a transition from dirty coal and gas burning to clean, renewable wind energy. Thus the Historical Climate Debt of the US can be expressed either as 99.12 Gt C or as 3.67 x 99.12 Gt CO2 x $100 / t CO2 = $36,377 billion = $36.377 trillion. By way of comparison, the GDP of the US is currently $14.5 trillion (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29 ). China has an Historical Climate Debt of 3.67 x 29.55 Gt CO2 x $100/ t CO2 = $10,845 billion = or $10.845 trillion.

Historical Carbon Debt can be expressed on a per capita basis simply by dividing the Historical Climate Debt for a country (e.g. see the data tabulated above ) by the present population of the country. For all “Rest of World” countries, the Per Capita Historical Carbon Debt (US$ per person) = 3.67 x 46.14 billion tonnes CO2 X $100 per tonne CO2/ 3.194.5 billion persons = $5,301 per person.

For all “Rest of Europe” countries, the Per Capita Historical Carbon Debt (US$ per person) = 3.67 x 64.88 billion tonnes CO2 X $100 per tonne CO2/ 0.4513 billion persons = $52,761 per person.

The Historical Carbon Debt for all countries in the world can also be roughly determined based on Dr James Hansen's data through estimation of percentage of the global responsibility for 346 Gt C (1,270 Gt CO2) fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution between 1751 and 2006 and thence expressed in US dollars at $100 per tonne CO2 sequestered as biochar [25]: $127 trillion (the World), $40.480 trillion (EU), $36.377 trillion (US), $10.845 trillion (China), $5.156 trillion (Japan), $8.731 trillion (Germany); $3.369 trillion (France), $7.938 trillion (UK), $1.041 trillion (Brazil), $9.788 trillion (Russia), $3.196 trillion (Italy), $3.307 trillion (India), $2.052 trillion (Canada), $2.052 trillion (Australia), $1.241 trillion (Indonesia), $0.272 trillion (South Africa), $0.896 trillion (Nigeria), $0.943 trillion (Pakistan), and $0.813 (Bangladesh) .

Post-2010 Carbon Credits relate to the last amount of GHG pollution the World can sustain before zero emissions in 2050 if it is to avoid a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise. In 2009 the WBGU which advises the German Government on climate change estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must emit no more than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. From this information it was possible to use data for annual per capita GHG pollution (i.e. of CO2-e; see “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita ) to calculate years left to zero emissions for every country in the world (see Gideon Polya, “Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions”, Green Blog, 1 August 2011: http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/ ).

If we accept that “all men are created equal” then the annual per capita “terminal budget “ share is 600 Gt CO2/ (40 years x 7 billion people) = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year. Thus the Climate Credit of the US = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 312.7 million persons x 3.1 years = 2,074 Mt CO2 = 2.074 Gt CO2 and the Climate Credit of China = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 1,339.7 million persons x 18.5 years = 53,039 Mt CO2 = 53.04 Gt CO2.

Carbon Credits can be expressed in dollars by applying a Carbon Price e.g. of $100 per tonne CO2 , this valuing the Carbon Credits of the US and China at $207 billion and $5.3 trillion, respectively.

Per capita Carbon Credits for each country can simply be obtained by dividing Carbon Credits by the population. Per capita Climate Credits (US$ per person) = years to zero emissions x 2.14 tonnes CO2 per person per year X $100 per tonne CO2

Net Carbon Debt and Net Carbon Credit.

Net Carbon Debt equals Historical Carbon Debt minus Carbon Credits. Thus the Net Climate Debt of the US is $36.377 trillion (Debt) - $0.207 trillion (Credits) = $36.170. trillion Net Debt.

In contrast China has a Net Carbon Debt of $10.845 trillion (Debt) - $5.304 trillion (Credit) = $5.541 trillion Net Debt.

Further, India has a Carbon Debt of 3.67 x 9.01 Gt CO2 x $100/tonne CO2 = $3.307 trillion. However India has a Carbon Credit of .2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 40.1 years left to pollute x 1,234.4 million X $100 per tonne CO2 = $10.598 trillion. Accordingly India has a Net Carbon Debt of $3.307 trillion (Debt) - $10.598 trillion (Credit) = minus $7.291 trillion i.e. India has a Net Carbon Credit of $7.291 trillion.

Total Net Carbon Debt or Net Carbon Credit for each country is determined from the above data simply by multiplying the per capita value (in US$ per person) by the population (see “List of countries by population” (2011), Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population ). Total Net Carbon Debt or Net Carbon Credit for each country in $ can be converted in units of tonnes CO2-e simply by dividing this data by $100/tonne CO2-e.

The First World EU governments in the current EU financial crisis are insisting on financial debt repayment and fiscal responsibility by debtor countries. Carbon Creditor countries should likewise insist on repayment of Carbon Debt and a rapid global move to cessation of greenhouse gas pollution. The Carbon Debtors are stealing from the poor Carbon Creditors and should be held to account through public advocacy and through International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions against Carbon Debtor countries by Carbon Creditor countries.

The Carbon Debt, Carbon Credit website is provided as a public educational resource , especially for the citizens, media, academics, public servants and governments of Island States and mega-delta countries that are particularly threatened by man-made climate change.

Carbon Debt and Carbon Credit can be expressed in various ways and are synonymous with Climate Debt and Climate Credit, respectively. For the related "Climate Debt, Climate Credit" website see:https://sites.google.com/site/climatedebtclimatecredit/home .

Some major observations arise from this data set.

1. Some will argue that it is “unfair” to the major polluters of the European countries to saddle them with the Carbon Debt of previous generations. However these same countries have no problem with continuing to run up huge national debts, with demanding debt repayment by vulnerable countries (as in the current Eurozone crisis) or with crippling Third World countries with massive debt (for a damning account read John Perkins’ “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man”). Indeed Germany finally paid its last reparations for World War 1 (1914-1918) in 2010 and 96.5% of the 1751-2008 Historical Carbon Debt considered in this analysis was generated between 1901 and 2008. It should be also noted that this analysis is actually rather unfair to India, China , the “Rest of World” and indeed much of the “Rest of Europe” because it ignores the reality that most of these countries were variously subject in this period of 1751-2006 to colonial subjugation or crippling hegemony by the major polluters, namely the UK, Germany, the USA, Russia and Japan.

2. This analysis is only concerned with available data on Carbon Debt arising from the burning of fossil fuels and ignores Carbon Debt from greenhouse gas (GHG) production from deforestation and methanogenic livestock production. Using the data that methane (CH4) is 72 times the global warming potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide (CO2) on a 20 year time frame (as compared to 25 times worse on a 100 year time frame) World Bank analysts have re-assessed annual global GHG pollution as 50% bigger than hitherto thought with methanogenic livestock production contributing over 51% of the bigger figure (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ). However this re-assessment in turn needs further re-assessment because Dr Drew Shindell and colleagues at NASA have shown that CH4 is actually 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year time frame when aerosol impacts are taken into account (see Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science, 30 October 2009: Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 and Shindell et al (2009), Fig.2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only ).

3. The US is the biggest Carbon Debtor.

4. One can convert the Carbon Debt or Carbon Credit from units of “million tonnes of CO2” simply by multiplying by whatever carbon price you desire in, say, US dollars. Thus a genuine Carbon Price of US$100 per tonne of CO2 would permit a transition from coal- and gas-burning for electric power. Using this value the Carbon Debt of the US would be 72, 244 million tonnes CO2 x $100/ tonne CO2 = $7,200, 244 million = $7.2 trillion. Likewise the Carbon Credit of China and India would be $8.6 trillion and $9.5 trillion, respectively.

5. The US is steadily increasing its current $15.3 trillion national debt (see: http://www.usdebtclock.org/ ) and is devaluing this debt by printing money. Conversely, the US has a 72,244 million tonne CO2 ($7.2 trillion @ $100 per tonne CO2) Net Carbon Debt but is steadily increasing this debt at the rate of 6,946 million tonnes CO2-e per year (2008) i.e. the US Carbon Debt is increasing at about 10% per year. The US under Obama shows no indication of reducing its GHG pollution profligacy. Obama’s declining to approve the current Keystone XL pipeline proposal to carry oil from Canadian tar sands to Texas may only be a temporary reprieve to keep pro-environmentalists on side in a Presidential election year. According to leading US climate scientist Dr James Hansen, exploitation of the Canadian tar sands will mean “game over” for the Planet.

6. Australia is the worst annual per capita GHG polluter of the Carbon Debtor countries but shows no indication of changing its disproportionate GHG pollution. Australia’s Domestic plus exported GHG pollution was 1,077 million tonnes CO2-e in 2000 but under the Australian Labor Government’s dishonest “Carbon Tax-ETS Scheme” this is estimated to increase to 1,799 million tonnes by 2020 (a 1.7-fold increase) and to 4,490 million tonnes CO2-e by 2050 (a 4.2-fold increase). In vain top US, UK, German and Australian climate scientists and biologists demand that global GHG pollution must be rapidly reduced to zero emissions in about 2050 and that the atmospheric CO2 concentration must return to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current damaging 394 ppm (increasing at 2.4 ppm per year) (see “300,org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm ). Australia’s Net Carbon Debt (3,631 million tonnes CO2) is currently increasing at about 1,415 million tonnes CO2-e per year i.e. at 39% per year.

7. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO₂-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO₂ pollution is included, 64 being the 2010 figure). The major Climate Creditor countries are vastly lower in per capita GHG pollution than Australia (see “Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ ). Thus Australia’s current annual per capita of 64 tonnes CO2-e per person per year (with Exported GHG included) is 71 times that of Bangladesh.

8. The Carbon Debtors are stealing from the poor Carbon Creditors that are increasingly threatened by the worsening climate crisis. The Carbon Debtors (Climate Debtors) should be held to account through public advocacy, boycotts, sanctions, green tariffs, International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions applied against Climate Debtor countries by Climate Creditor countries, notably the numerous Island States and major mega-delta countries such as Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Egypt, Nigeria, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The climate criminals and Carbon Debtors (Climate Debtors) must be brought to account before it is too late.

Outstanding Canadian human rights activist and writer Naomi Klein has written thus about climate rage in response to non-recognition and non-payment of Climate Debt (2009): “Among the smartest and most promising - not to mention controversial - proposals is "climate debt," the idea that rich countries should pay reparations to poor countries for the climate crisis. In the world of climate-change activism, this marks a dramatic shift in both tone and content… Setting aside the morality of building high-tech fortresses to protect ourselves from a crisis we inflicted on the world, those enclaves and resource wars won't come cheap. And unless we pay our climate debt, and quickly, we may well find ourselves living in a world of climate rage” (see Naomi Klein, “Climate rage”, Rolling Stone, November 2009: http://www.naomiklein.org/articles/2009/11/climate-rage ). The fossil fuel-based Carbon Debt analysis given above provides a quantitative basis for such reparations payments and should be used by Island States, mega-delta countries and other threatened Climate Creditor countries to force urgently needed climate change action.