RESEARCH

Publications

(click on title for latest draft)

Children’s Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data (with Keith Finlay and Michael Mueller-Smith)  at The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2023

Children’s indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or coresident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system’s expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to (1) observe non-incarceration events, (2) follow children throughout their childhood, and (3) measure adult non-biological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System, and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison – 9% of children born between 1999–2005, felony conviction – 18%, and any criminal charge – 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high exposure counties are more likely to experience post-move exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); those impacts are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages. 

Criminal Justice Involvement, Self-employment, and Barriers in Recent Public Policy  (with Keith Finlay and Michael Mueller-Smith) at Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2022

This study provides the first empirical evidence on the extent of self-employment within the U.S. justice-involved population. Using linked tax returns and Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data, we find that 28 percent of individuals with criminal records are self-employed. Justice-involved individuals are 22 percent more likely to rely solely on self-employment. The Paycheck Protection Program, passed to support small business during the COVID-19 pandemic, initially disqualified those with a broad range of criminal histories. We find that close to three percent of recent sole-proprietors had observable PPP disqualifying events based on initial eligibility criteria, with a disparate impact on Black and Hispanic business owners.

Policy brief here

"The Effect of Own-Gender Juries on Convictions (with Mark Hoekstra)  at Journal of Law and Economics, 2021

This paper examines the extent to which criminal conviction rates are affected by the similarity in the gender of the defendant and jury. To identify effects, we exploit the random variation in both the assignment to jury pools and the ordering of potential jurors. We do so using detailed administrative data on the juror selection process and trial proceedings for two large counties in Florida. Results indicate that own-gender juries result in significantly lower conviction rates on drug charges, though we find no evidence of effects for other charges. Estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in expected own-gender jurors (~10 percentage points) results in an 18 percentage point reduction in conviction rates on drug charges, which is highly significant even after adjusting for multiple comparisons. This results in a 13 percentage point decline in the likelihood of being sentenced to at least some jail time. These findings highlight how drawing an opposite-gender jury can impose significant costs on defendants, and demonstrate that own-gender bias can occur even in settings where the importance of being impartial is actively pressed on participants. 

The Effect of Investments in Physical Education on Student Health and Achievement (with Analisa Packham)  at Economics of Education Review, 2019

Despite the mounting evidence that physical education (PE) has health and education benefits for elementary-aged children, much less is known on the effectiveness of such programs for older children. To study the effects of PE on adolescents, we analyze the impact of Texas Fitness Now (TFN), a four-year $37 million grant program that mandated daily PE for middle-school students in low-income schools. Using a regression discontinuity approach to exploit the cutoff in school eligibility, we find that daily PE mandates do not lead to overall improvements in student fitness, including cardiovascular endurance, strength, and flexibility. Although we show that the program was ineffective at changing average student body composition, estimates indicate a reduction in the proportion of obese students. Using individual-level school records data, we find that PE does not lead to positive spillover effects in the classroom, including improvements in standardized test scores, or increases in attendance for 6th, 7th and 8th graders. Instead, we provide some evidence to suggest that PE reduces attendance rates and increases disciplinary incidents for middle-school students.

Working Papers 

(click on the title for the latest draft)

The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom revisions requested at Journal of Public Economics

Economic theory suggests crime should decrease as economic opportunities increase the returns to legal employment. However, there are well-documented cases where crime increases in response to areas becoming more prosperous. This paper addresses this puzzle by examining the effects on crime only for residents already living in the area prior to the economic boom. This approach isolates the effect of local economic opportunity from the effect of changing composition due to in-migration during these periods. To identify effects,  I exploit within- and across-county variation in exposure to hydraulic fracturing activities in North Dakota using administrative individual-level data on residents, mineral lease records, and criminal charges. Results indicate that the start of economic expansion – as signaled by the signing of leases – leads to a 14 percent reduction in criminal cases filed. Effects continue once the fracking boom escalates during the more labor-intensive period. This is consistent with improved economic opportunity reducing crime. 

The Vicious Circle of Blackouts and Revenue Collection in Developing Economies: Evidence from Ghana (with Steve Puller, James Dzansi and Belinda Yebuah-Dwamena)

Access to reliable electricity is viewed as one of the largest barriers to economic growth in developing economies. Utilities suffer from the twin challenges of quasi-fiscal deficits and the need to implement rolling blackouts during periods with supply shortages. In this paper, we measure the negative feedback loop between bill payment and rolling blackouts contributing to a "revenue trap" for electric utilities. Using household-level data on bill payment and power outages before and after a power crisis in Ghana, we estimate the impact of quasi-random exposure to power outages on subsequent bill payment. We exploit a unique feature of the power grid whereby customers in close proximity are exposed to different levels of blackouts because some are served by a feeder with an important piece of infrastructure "down the line" and others are served by feeders that do not service essential infrastructure. We find that households that are quasi-experimentally exposed to rolling blackouts increase unpaid balances relative to households on essential feeders. This is consistent with a negative feedback loop in which decreases in power reliability induce households to pay bills at lower rates and exacerbate the utility's financial viability. 

Works in Progress

Convictions, Incarceration, and Earnings in an Event Studies Framework (with Keith Finlay and Michael Mueller-Smith) draft coming soon!

There is compelling evidence that convictions and incarceration have negative impacts on labor market outcomes. But research also shows that offenders have relatively low levels of human capital even before any contact with the justice system. Thus, accurately characterizing an offender’s employment profile and the plausible impact of the justice system has been challenging due to this population’s non-trivial involvement in both formal and informal sectors and the non-linear relationship between criminal justice involvement and economic outcomes (e.g. the first criminal record playing a critical role in life-long employment outcomes). We use high-quality longitudinal criminal justice records through CJARS integrated with extensive labor market data (IRS W-2s and ACS self-reported work) to examine the effect of criminal justice interactions on labor market outcomes in an event study framework. Employment and earnings are tracked in both formal administrative as well as self-reported employment status in survey responses, providing an opportunity to identify informality and its implications. In this research, we highlight the importance of periodicity of criminal justice events and the role of shifts to informal employment, particularly when using event studies and administrative data.

The Effect of Barriers to Credit on Small Businesses among Justice-Involved Individuals (with Keith Finlay, Michael Mueller-Smith and Kylie Hwang) draft coming soon!

Entrepreneurship is one potential pathway for justice-involved individuals to gain economic self-sufficiency. However, it typically requires access to credit and capital. In this paper, we first document significant barriers to credit for those with criminal records using administrative criminal justice records newly linked to the Survey of Business Owners. We show that small businesses are 19% and 21% more likely to report a lack of start-up and expansion capital from loans and are 56% more likely to cease operations due to a lack of access to capital. We then estimate the causal effects of access to credit on small business success, shifts in employment, and recidivism. To do so, we leverage a discrete change in eligibility for small business loans through the Payroll Protection Program based on the time since an individual's last felony conviction in a regression discontinuity framework paired with administrative criminal justice histories,  1040 and Schedule C tax forms, and SBA loan microdata. Access to funding decreases future criminal convictions by 53% and decreases shifts into employer-based employment by 8%. 

Children's Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Changes over Time and Evolution in Household Structure (with Keith Finlay and Michael Mueller-Smith)

Second Chance for the Second Generation: The Intergenerational Impacts of Felony Diversion (with Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin Schnepel)

The Effect of Access to Subsidized Housing in the United States (with Emily Leslie)

The Economic Impacts of Substance Abuse Rehabilitation: Evidence from U.S. Drug Courts (with Garrett Anstreicher)

Resting Projects

The Effect of Access to Financial Resources on Educational Attainment (with Steve Puller and David Ripplinger)

Measuring the Impact of Economic Opportunity on Mortality

The Effect of Own-Gender Mediators on Divorce Agreements