The Practitioners' Lecture Series is an initiative at Imperial College London within the MSc in Mathematics and Finance programme. It is aimed at engaging students (MSc and PhD) in a wide range of up-to-date topics and trends with direct industry relevance, reaching beyond the core contents of the MSc.
It consists of short lectures (1-3 hrs length) given by practitioners working in the field with contents ranging from technical to more hands-on, or overviews, with a strong emphasis on the everyday applications and challenges. Topics include Algorithmic Differentiation, Regulation, Stress testing, Block Chain, Impact of Brexit, FinTech, Big Data and many more.
Please contact b.horvath@imperial.ac.uk for further information regarding participation in lectures.
Slides of the presentations can be downloaded from the bottom of this page.
Upcoming Lectures:
March 22nd 17:00-18:00 Clore Lecture Theatre (Huxley 213) Imperial College London: Patrick McGuire (LMR Partners)
Title: ``Practical Volatility and Credit Trading''
Abstract: Discussion of several topics relating to the practical challenges in the research and implementation of trading strategies in the volatility and credit asset classes.
March 21st 16:30-17:30 Huxley 139, Imperial College London: Claude Martini (Zeliade Systems Paris)
Title: ``Robust Calibration and No Arbitrage Interpolation of eSSVI Slices''
Abstract: We describe a robust calibration algorithm of a set of SSVI slices (i.e., a set of 3 SSVI parameters θ,ρ,φ attached to each option maturity available on the market), which grants that these slices are free of But- terfly and Calendar-Spread arbitrage. Given such a set of consistent SSVI parameters, we show that the most natural interpolation/extrapolation of the parameters povides a full continuous volatility surface free of arbitrage. The numerical implementation is straightforward, robust and quick, yielding an effective, parsimonious benchmark solution to the smile problem.
March 13th 17:00-18:00 Weeks Hall Lecture Theatre, Imperial College London: Gordon Lee (UBS)
Title: ``The Importance of Being (Earnestly) Collateralised''
Abstract:
This talk gives an introduction to the increasing important that collateral agreements plays in various XVA and Credit Risk Exposure computation in finance. We will go through the interplay between collateral agreements and pricing, also looking at the future problems that need to take these issues into account.
Title:
"February 5th: Black Monday for VIX, and VIX products"
Abstract: In this lecture we will look at what happened on 5th Feb to VIX markets and VIX Exchange Traded Products. We will consider how the VIX futures can be used to build tradable VIX Indexes, such as the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. We will then analyse the most common VIX ETNs. For example, for the short ones, we will consider the necessary adjustments that have to be made in order to make them replicable, like daily rebalancing, termination thresholds and the risks that they may trigger. We will then review the events of 5th Feb that culminated in the withdrawal of some of the short VIX ETNs, after they experienced sudden losses in excess of 90% of the investments. We will consider where it all went wrong and the key points which need to have been learnt from the extreme events of last week.
Materials: Link to the XIV prospectus, the slides of the presentation can be downloaded from the bottom of this page.
Title: Deep Statistical Hedging
Title: Next generation stress testing
Abstract: We give an overview of the current regulatory stress tests that are conducted to assess financial stability. A key assumption in the current framework is that of “static balance sheets”, i.e. banks do not react to the stress scenario, but keep their portfolios unchanged during the stressed episode. Intense research efforts are trying to (i) introduce dynamic balance sheets for banks, (ii) include feedback effects between the financial sector and the real economy, (iii) model solvency – liquidity feedbacks, (iv) develop system-wide stress testing that includes other sectors beyond banks (asset managers, insurance companies, …) in order to develop “next generation stress tests”.
Title: Commodity markets and commodity indexes: a practitioners’ introduction
Abstract: In the first part of this lecture we will start introducing the most common commodity markets (energy, soft & grains, metals) and the concept of term structure of forward commodity prices as well as the typical commodity markets participants. We will then introduce the key concepts of contango and backwardation and their most common drivers, including examples of what may happen in certain extreme cases (such as strong demand/supply disruption or spikes) and the comparison with non-commodity assets. In particular we will discuss that:
i. for low supply / supply disruptions / demand spikes, it may be impossible to arbitrage a curve even when it is in extreme backwardation;
ii. for low demand / demand disruptions / excessive supply, traditional “cash and carry” arbitrage strategies may be implemented but they require access to the physical market and they may still fail if / when storage facilities become unavailable.
We will conclude the first part giving plenty of examples of the most common shapes a commodity curve may take depending on the nature of the commodity itself (for instance curves showing a strong seasonality, such as refined products or natural gas) as well as examples of commodity curve behaviour in extreme market conditions.
In the second part of the lecture, we will introduce the simplest examples of commodity indexes (such as trackers for individual commodities) and the reasons for their strong popularity among different types of investors; after comparing them with the most traditional equity indexes we will focus on the way they are constructed and we will make a clear distinction between the so called “spot” and “excess return” indexes; we will show that, due to the different rolling mechanism of the underlying futures contracts, “spot indexes” are not self-financing strategies and therefore they’re not suitable to be used as benchmarks for commodity investment products (such as ETFs), whereas “excess return” indexes are.
We will conclude showing that, by construction, “excess return” commodity indexes enjoy a flat forward term structure which makes them particularly tractable from and analytical point of view as well as easy to replicate in practice.
Title: Forecasting Prices of Electricity Fututres: Practice vs. Theory
The slides of this presentation can be downloaded from this website (see below) in pdf format.
Contents:
-The Need for Electricity: understanding how 45% of the world’s energy supply is processed through electricity plants
-The Cost-Price Conundrum: exploring the complexities of estimating the cost of production
-A Balancing Act: learning how supply and demand of electricity should be matched at all times
-The Power Market: analysing the building blocks of the wholesale market
-Pricing Futures: researching the uncertainties of pricing electricity futures
Title: Stress testing and risk integration in banks.
The slides of the presentation can be downloaded from this website below in pdf format.
Abstract: An introduction to the stress testing framework used by banks trhoughout the world relies on the recently published book "Stress testing and risk integration in banks". The aim of the lecture is to provide an overview of the process by considering a bottom-up risk strategy. A multi-country bank prototype is used to assess bank solvency in periods both long (economic capital) and short (liquidity mismatching). Following the perspective of commercial banks, an easy to implement statistical framework is presented based on information available in therisk management practice. The following tools are at the very heart of the system:
• Vector auto-regression (VAR) and global vector auto-regression (GVAR) are used to model macroeconomic scenarios.
• Asset and liability management (A&LM) and Value at risk (VaR) allow us to measure interest rate, market and liquidity risks. The assessment is based on the above macroeconomic scenarios.
• Credit portfolio modelling is used to assess the impact of adverse economic conditions on loans, mortgages and other credit facilities. A transmission mechanics is crucial to mimic real world connections between real world and financial economy. On this, regulatory ratios are examined as a critical step of the overall stress testing process.
• Risk integration and reverse stress testing finalise the framework by allowing analysts to investigate bank weaknesses following a holistic perspective.
Keywords:
Vector auto-regression (VAR), asset and liability management (A&LM), credit portfolio modelling, holistic risk assessment, reverse stress testing.
Key references:
[1] Alessandri, P. and Drehmann, M. (2010). An economic capital model integrating credit and interest rate risk in the banking book. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(4), 730–742.
[2] Bellini, T. (2013). Integrated bank risk modeling: a bottom-up statistical framework. European Journal of Operational Research, 230, 385– 398.
[3] Breuer, T., Jandacka, M., Mencia, J., and Summer, M. (2012). A systematic approach to multi-period stress testing of portfolio credit risk. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36, 332–340.
[4] Castren, O., Dees, S., and Zaher, F. (2010). Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model. Journal of Financial Stability, 6, 64–74.
[5] Drehmann, M., Stringa, M., and Sorensen, S. (2010). The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: A dynamic framework and stress testing application. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 713–729.
[6] Lutkepohl, H. (1991). Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
[7] Pesaran, M., Schuermann, T., and Weiner, S. (2004). Modeling regional interde-pendencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22, 129–162.
Book reviews:
"Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks is a book that both finance academics and risk management experts have long sought. It bridges a substantial gap between risk theory and banking practice by paving the way for sound quantitative approaches in the area." --
Niklas F Wagner, University of Passau
"This book is highly practical and rigorous in its clear and refreshing coverage of current risk issues faced by global banks. Combining Matlab/R code, relevant exercises and business cases, it is comprehensive in scope and operationally highly relevant." --
Gary van Vuuren, Aviva Investors, London and North West University, South
Africa
"Stress Testing and Risk Integration in Banks reveals the important connections between risk management and stress testing in the banking industry. These days, in which the industry is in the verge of its deepest change in decades, this book provides a much-needed framework to apply stress testing in practical terms." --
Juan Ignacio Peña, Universidad Carlos III