Bernardo Guimaraes

Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV/SP

Email: bernardo.guimaraes at

Working papers:

  • "Power sharing, rents, and commitment" (with Kevin Sheedy): [pdf], September 2013
    • A previous version was circulated under the title "A model of equilibrium institutions".
  • "Isolated capital cities and misgovernance: theory and evidence" (with Filipe Campante and Quoc-Anh Do): [pdf], February 2013.
  • "Intertemporal coordination with delay options" (with Luis Araujo): [pdf], February 2014.
    • A previous version was circulated under the title "The effect of options on coordination".
  • "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies" (with Caio Machado): [pdf], March 2014.
  • "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves): [pdf], April 2014.
  • "IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for …fiscal adjustment" (with Oz Iazdi): [pdf], February 2014.
  • "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default" (with Andre Diniz): [pdf], February 2014.


Teaching material:

  • International Financial crises: [pdf], 2013.

Publications in Brazilian Journals:

  • "Qualis as a measuring stick for research output in Economics", Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
  • "Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
    • This paper includes the material in "Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Brazil".
  • "A possibilidade de saltos no cambio implicita nos premios das opcoes" (in Portuguese, with Marcos Eugenio da Silva), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2002.

Books (in Portuguese):

Unpublished paper:

  • "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil": [pdf], October 2008.
    • Part of the material in this paper was  in "Expectations before the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999" and "Market expectations and currency crises: theory and empirics".


  • Music: Better Together (Jack Johnson), by Mariana and Bernardo [video].