Bernardo Guimaraes


Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

Email: bernardo.guimaraes at

Working papers:

  • "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election" (with Augusto Carvalho): [abstract+pdf], December 2016, revise and resubmit, Journal of Public Economics.
  • "Capital cities, conflict, and misgovernance" (with Filipe Campante and Quoc-Anh Do): [pdf], March 2017, revise and resubmit, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.
    • Earlier version: "Isolated capital cities and misgovernance: Theory and evidence"
  • "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents" (with Ana Elisa Pereira): [pdf], March 2017, revise and resubmit, Journal of Mathematical Economics.
  • "Political specialization" (with Kevin Sheedy): [pdf], June 2017.
  • "Contingent judicial deference: theory and application to usury laws" (with Bruno Meyerhof Salama): [pdf], June 2017.
  • "How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies" (with Andre Diniz): [abstract+pdf], January 2017.
    • This paper subsumes the material in "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment"
  • "The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?" (with Carlos Eduardo Ladeira): [abstract+pdf], January 2017.


  • "Dynamic coordination and the optimal stimulus policies" (with Caio Machado), Economic Journalforthcoming: [pdf]
    • Online appendix: [pdf]. Earlier version: "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies"
  • "Guarding the Guardians" (with Kevin Sheedy), Economic Journal, forthcoming: [pdf]
    • Earlier versions: "A Model of Equilibrium Institutions", "Power Sharing, Rents, and Commitment" and "A Model of the Rule of Law"
  • "A coordination approach to the essentiality of money" (with Luis Araujo), Review of Economic Dynamics, 2017: [abstract+pdf]
  • "A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy" (with Caio Machado and Marcel Ribeiro), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016: [abstract + pdf]
  • "QWERTY is efficient" (with Ana Elisa Pereira)Journal of Economic Theory, 2016: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Intertemporal coordination with delay options" (with Luis Araujo), Journal of Economic Theory, 2015: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Journal of International Economics, 2015: [abstract + pdf]
  • "IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for fiscal adjustment" (with Oz Iazdi), International Tax and Public Finance, 2015: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Coordination in the use of money" (with Luis Araujo), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014: [abstract + pdf]
  • "US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies" (with Nathan Foley-Fisher), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2011: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Sales and monetary policy" (with Kevin Sheedy), American Economic Review, 2011: [abstract + pdf]. Complete version with proofs: [pdf]
  • "Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks" (with Stephen Morris), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007: [abstract + pdf]Complete version with proofs: [pdf]
  • "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: a model of IMF's catalytic finance" (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions", Journal of International Economics, 2006: [abstract + pdf]Proofs: [pdf]

Teaching material:

Publications in Brazilian Journals:

  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation" (with Celio Feltrin Jr), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2016: [abstract+pdf].
  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms' response to inflation shocks" (with Andre Mazini and Diogo de Prince), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2016: [abstract + pdf].
  • "O Comunicado do Banco Central" (with Rodolfo Cabral, in Portuguese), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2015:[abstract + pdf].
  • "Qualis as a measuring stick for research output in Economics", Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
  • "Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
    • This paper includes the material in "Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Brazil".
  • "A possibilidade de saltos no cambio implicita nos premios das opcoes" (in Portuguese, with Marcos Eugenio da Silva), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2002.

Blog (in Portuguese):

Books (in Portuguese):

Unpublished paper:

  • "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil": [pdf], October 2008.
    • Part of the material in this paper was in "Expectations before the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999" and "Market expectations and currency crises: theory and empirics".

Music by Mariana and Bernardo: 

  • YouTube: Better Together (Jack Johnson) [video].
  • SoundCloud: Beijo Roubado (Rastapé) [audio]; Sanfoninha (Chico César) [audio]; Por Você (Barão Vermelho) [audio].