Bernardo Guimaraes

Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV/SP

Email: bernardo.guimaraes at

Working papers:

  • "Political specialization" (with Kevin Sheedy): [pdf], March 2015.
  • "A model of the rule of law" (with Kevin Sheedy): [pdf], February 2015Earlier versions: "A model of equilibrium institutions" and "Power sharing, rents and commitment".
  • "Capital cities, conflict, and misgovernance: theory and evidence" (with Filipe Campante and Quoc-Anh Do): [pdf], August 2015.
  • "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies" (with Caio Machado): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents" (with Ana Elisa Pereira): [pdf], March 2015.
  • "A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy" (with Caio Machado and Marcel Ribeiro): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "A coordination approach to the essentiality of money" (with Luis Araujo): [pdf], February 2015.
  • "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment" (with Andre Diniz): [pdf], August 2014.
  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation episode" (with Celio Feltrin): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?" (with Carlos Eduardo Ladeira): [pdf], May 2015.


Teaching material:

  • International Financial crises: [pdf], 2015.

Publications in Brazilian Journals:

  • "O Comunicado do Banco Central" (with Rodolfo Cabral, in Portuguese), Revista Brasileira de Economia, forthcoming:[pdf].
  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms' response to inflation shocks" (with Andre Mazini and Diogo Mendonça), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, forthcoming: [pdf].
  • "Qualis as a measuring stick for research output in Economics", Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
  • "Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
    • This paper includes the material in "Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Brazil".
  • "A possibilidade de saltos no cambio implicita nos premios das opcoes" (in Portuguese, with Marcos Eugenio da Silva), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2002.

Books (in Portuguese):

Unpublished paper:

  • "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil": [pdf], October 2008.
    • Part of the material in this paper was in "Expectations before the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999" and "Market expectations and currency crises: theory and empirics".

Music by Mariana and Bernardo: 

  • YouTube: Better Together (Jack Johnson) [video].
  • SoundCloud: Beijo Roubado (Rastapé) [audio]; Sanfoninha (Chico César) [audio]; Por Você (Barão Vermelho) [audio].