Bernardo Guimaraes

Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV/SP

Email: bernardo.guimaraes at

Working papers:

  • "A model of the rule of law" (with Kevin Sheedy): [pdf], February 2015Earlier versions: "A model of equilibrium institutions" and "Power sharing, rents and commitment".
  • "Capital cities, conflict, and misgovernance: theory and evidence" (with Filipe Campante and Quoc-Anh Do): [pdf], September 2014.
  • "Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies" (with Caio Machado): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents" (with Ana Elisa Pereira): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "A model of the confidence channel of fiscal policy" (with Caio Machado and Marcel Ribeiro): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "A coordination approach to the essentiality of money" (with Luis Araujo): [pdf], February 2015.
  • "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment" (with Andre Diniz): [pdf], August 2014.
  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation episode" (with Celio Feltrin): [pdf], January 2015.
  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms' response to inflation shocks" (with Andre Mazini and Diogo de Prince Mendonça): [pdf], June 2014.
  • "O Comunicado do Banco Central" (with Rodolfo Cabral, in Portuguese): [pdf], July 2014.


  • "Intertemporal coordination with delay options" (with Luis Araujo), Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Journal of International Economics, 2015: [abstract + pdf]
  • "IMF conditionalities, liquidity provision, and incentives for …fiscal adjustment" (with Oz Iazdi), International Tax and Public Finance, forthcoming: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Coordination in the use of money" (with Luis Araujo), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014: [abstract + pdf]
  • "US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies" (with Nathan Foley-Fisher), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2011: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Sales and monetary policy" (with Kevin Sheedy), American Economic Review, 2011: [abstract + pdf]. Complete version with proofs: [pdf]
  • "Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks" (with Stephen Morris), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007: [abstract + pdf]Complete version with proofs: [pdf]
  • "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: a model of IMF's catalytic finance" (with Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini), Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006: [abstract + pdf]
  • "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions", Journal of International Economics, 2006: [abstract + pdf]Proofs: [pdf]

Teaching material:

  • International Financial crises: [pdf], 2013.

Publications in Brazilian Journals:

  • "Qualis as a measuring stick for research output in Economics", Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
  • "Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
    • This paper includes the material in "Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Brazil".
  • "A possibilidade de saltos no cambio implicita nos premios das opcoes" (in Portuguese, with Marcos Eugenio da Silva), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2002.

Books (in Portuguese):

Unpublished paper:

  • "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil": [pdf], October 2008.
    • Part of the material in this paper was  in "Expectations before the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999" and "Market expectations and currency crises: theory and empirics".


  • Music: Better Together (Jack Johnson), by Mariana and Bernardo [video].