Bernardo Guimaraes


Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV

Email: bernardo.guimaraes at

Students in the job market: Caio Machado and Ana Elisa Pereira.

Working papers:

  • "Dynamic coordination and the optimal stimulus policies" (with Caio Machado): [pdf], March 2016, revise and resubmit, Economic Journal.
  • "Political specialization" (with Kevin Sheedy): [pdf], May 2016.
  • "Capital cities, conflict, and misgovernance" (with Filipe Campante and Quoc-Anh Do): [pdf], May 2016.
  • "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents" (with Ana Elisa Pereira): [pdf], April 2016.
  • "Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment" (with Andre Diniz): [pdf], August 2014.
  • "The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?" (with Carlos Eduardo Ladeira): [pdf], January 2016.
  • "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election" (with Augusto Carvalho): [pdf], November 2016.


Teaching material:

  • International Financial crises: [pdf], 2016.

Publications in Brazilian Journals:

  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from a large devaluation" (with Celio Feltrin Jr), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, forthcoming: [pdf].
  • "Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? Evidence from firms' response to inflation shocks" (with Andre Mazini and Diogo de Prince), Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2016: [abstract + pdf].
  • "O Comunicado do Banco Central" (with Rodolfo Cabral, in Portuguese), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2015:[abstract + pdf].
  • "Qualis as a measuring stick for research output in Economics", Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
  • "Monetary policy, default risk and the exchange rate" (with Carlos Eduardo Goncalves), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011: [abstract + pdf].
    • This paper includes the material in "Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Brazil".
  • "A possibilidade de saltos no cambio implicita nos premios das opcoes" (in Portuguese, with Marcos Eugenio da Silva), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2002.

Blog (in Portuguese):

Books (in Portuguese):

Unpublished paper:

  • "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil": [pdf], October 2008.
    • Part of the material in this paper was in "Expectations before the Brazilian currency crisis of 1999" and "Market expectations and currency crises: theory and empirics".

Music by Mariana and Bernardo: 

  • YouTube: Better Together (Jack Johnson) [video].
  • SoundCloud: Beijo Roubado (Rastapé) [audio]; Sanfoninha (Chico César) [audio]; Por Você (Barão Vermelho) [audio].