Carlos Eduardo Goncalves Webpage

I am an applied macroeconomist at the International Monetary Fund. 

Former University of Sao Paulo (FEA-USP), Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP).

email: carloseduardosg73@gmail.com

Publications

• "Missing: a correlation between exchange rate misalignment and GDP growth "(with Mauro Rodrigues), Review of International Economics, 2023.

• "It is causal: revisiting the savings and investment nexus "(with Antonio David), Applied Economics, 2023.

• "In Search of Lost Time: Examining the Duration of Growth-Reducing Sudden Stops" (with Antonio David), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021

• "Sovereign default risk and commitment for fiscal adjustment." (w/ Bernardo Guimaraes), Journal of International Economics, 2015.

• "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD's Sacrifice Ratios" (with Alexandre Carvalho), Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2009.

• "Correlation of Business Cycles in the Eurozone" (with Mauro Rodrigues), Economics Letters, 2009.

• "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: What do the Data Say"(with Joao Salles), Journal of Development Economics, 2008.  

• "Who Chooses to Inflation Target?" (with Alexandre Carvalho), Economics Letters, 2008.

 Selected Publications in Brazilian Journals 

• "Monetary Policy, Default Risk and the Exchange Rate" (with Bernardo Guimaraes), Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2011.

• "Herança Maldita e Política Monetária em um Modelo com Assimetria de Informação", Revista Brasileira de Economia, 2005.

Working papers 

•   "The rise of the Taylor Principle" (with Bernardo Guimaraes): [abstract+pdf], February 2022 

• "Do higher interest rates reduce inflation expectations? ",  (with Mauro Rodrigues), 2023.

• "Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks fight inflation?" (with Jesper Linde, Zoltan Jakab, Jiaqian Chen),  IMF WP, 2023.

Books (Portuguese)

•  "Economia na Palma da Mão" (c/Bruno Giovanetti), ed. Saraiva, 2015.

• "Introdução à Economia"(c/ Bernardo Guimaraes), ed. Campus, 2009.

• "Sob a Lupa do Economista"(c/ Mauro Rodrigues), ed. Campus, 2009.

• "Economia Sem Truques"(c/ Bernardo Guimaraes), ed. Campus, 2008.  

Personal interests

• Foreign languages, data viz, Physics.