1: Introduction

Outline of Hendry-Clements Chapter (attached)

Material to be added: For each method, give real world examples.

Inventory forecasting.

Monetary Policy based on forecasts.

Demand forecasts used for launching new products/services.

Any other real world examples.

CHAPTER 1 An introduction to forecasting

• 1. Background

  2. Structure of the book

  3. A history of the theory of economic forecasting

  4. A framework for forecasting

  5. Alternative forecasting methods

5.1 Guessing

5.2 Extrapolation

5.3 Leading indicators

5.4 Surveys

5.5 Time-series models

5.6 Econometric systems

• 1. An artificial-data example

6.1 TheDGP

6.2 The data

6.3 System estimation