Economic & Business Forecasting -- Analyzing and Interpretating Econometric Results
by Silvia, Iqbal, Bullard, Watt, & Swankowski
OUTLINE:
Following are the main points of the book:
1. Before running any regression model, plot the graph of the time series. Then on the basis of plotting form the econometric model.
2. What is variable, from where it come, for what it stand and what is meaning of particular variable.
3. The time of publication for the data is also important for the healthy modeling. For example: consumption is done after the income, in other words consumption is function of lag of income.
4. Forecasting through BVAR (Bayesian VAR) have more power full results then simple VAR.
5. In case of forecasting scenario base forecasting is use full, because it revalue different type of information at the same time.