Research
Published and Accepted Papers:
"House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," with Richard Harrison and Benjamin Nelson. Review of Economic Studies 91, March 2024, pp. 940-971. Online appendix. Analytical appendix. (also available as Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 969).
"Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Open Economy." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. September 2020.
"Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies," with Martin Seneca. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51, June 2019, pp. 953-976. (also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 13108).
"International Credit Supply Shocks," with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci. Journal of International Economics 112, May 2018, pp. 219-237 (also available as NBER Working Paper 23841 and CEPR Discussion Paper 12501).
"The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," with Marco Del Negro, Gauti Eggertsson, and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki. American Economic Review 107, March 2017, pp. 824-857 (also available as Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 520 and NBER Working Paper 22259).
"Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism," with Carlos Carvalho and Fernanda Nechio. European Economic Review 88, September 2016, pp. 208-226. Appendix.
"House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits, and Low Interest Rates." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 47 (S1), March 2015, pp. 261-293.
"Has U.S. Monetary Policy Tracked the Efficient Interest Rate?" with Vasco Curdia, Ging Cee Ng, and Andrea Tambalotti. Journal of Monetary Economics 70, March 2015, pp. 72-83.
"Can Structural Reforms Help Europe?" with Gauti Eggertsson and Andrea Raffo. Journal of Monetary Economics 61, January 2014, pp. 2-22.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs," with Han Chen and Vasco Curdia. Economic Journal 122, Issue 564, November 2012, pp. F289-F315. Online appendix.
"The Advantage of Flexible Targeting Rules." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 44 (5), August 2012, pp. 863-881.
"A Structural Decomposition of the U.S. Trade Balance: Productivity, Demographics and Fiscal Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics 57 (4), May 2010, pp. 478-490.
"Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy," with Mark Gertler and Lars Svensson. In The International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, J. Gali' and M. Gertler (eds.), University of Chicago Press (2010).
"Fiscal and Monetary Rules for a Currency Union." Journal of International Economics 77 (1), February 2009, pp. 1-10.
"Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Monetary Stabilizations?" Rivista di Politica Economica 12 (December 2000), pp. 71-113.
Working Papers and Work in Progress:
"Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: A Quantitative Assessment of the Dilemma Hypothesis," with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Shangshang Li. CEPR Discussion Paper 18943.
"Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," with Carlos Carvalho, Felipe Mazin and Fernanda Nechio. CEPR Discussion Paper 18616.
"Leaning Against the Global Financial Cycle," with Maurizio Habib, Livio Stracca and Fabrizio Venditti. R&R, American Economic Journals: Macroeconomics. ECB Working Paper 2763. Shorter extract available as VoxEU column and SUERF Policy Brief No. 561.
"What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," with Gene Ambrocio, Esa Jokivuolle and Kim Ristolainen. CEPR Discussion Paper 17289 (also available as Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022). Shorter extract available as VoxEU column and SUERF Policy Brief No. 382.
"The Transmission of Keynesian Supply Shocks," with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi. CEPR Discussion Paper 16430 (also available as Bank of England Staff Working Paper 934).
"Liquidity and Safety over the Business Cycle," with Alexander Haas.
"What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?" with Carlos Carvalho.
Published Discussions:
"The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound," by Athanasios Orphanides. Economic Policy 35, July 2020, pp. 505-511.
"Completing the Banking Union with a European Deposit Insurance Scheme: Who Is Afraid of Cross-Subsidisation?'' by Jacopo Carmassi, Sonja Dobkowitz, Johanne Evrard, Laura Parisi, André Silva, and Michael Wedow. Economic Policy 35, January 2020, pp. 87-89.
"Income Contingent University Loans: Policy Design and an Application to Spain,'' by Antonio Cabrales, Maia Güell, Rocio Madera, Analia Viola. Economic Policy 34, July 2019, pp. 515-516.
"Policy Spillovers and Synergies in a Monetary Union," by Oscar Arce, Samuel Hurtado and Carlos Thomas. In International Journal of Central Banking, September 2016, pp. 279-290.
Other Writings:
"Navigating Disinflation: Views from 400 Economists," with Gene Ambrocio, Esa Jokivuolle and Kim Ristolainen. VoxEU, April 2023.
"What Academics Think of Central Banks' Current Inflation Target and Other Objectives," with Gene Ambrocio, Esa Jokivuolle and Kim Ristolainen. VoxEU, March 2021.
"How Did Central Banks Respond to the Coronavirus Crisis?" with Simona Giglioli. Economics Observatory, August 2020.
"La Risposta di Politica Monetaria nella Crisi COVID-19: Un'Analisi Comparata," with Simona Giglioli. In Le Parole della Crisi, le Politiche dopo la Pandemia, M. Malvicini, T. Portaluri and A. Martinengo (eds.), Editoriale Scientifica (2020).
"China Needs Tighter Macro-Prudential Regulations to Loosen Capital Controls," with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci. VoxChina, November 2017.
"Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates,'' with Carlos Carvalho and Fernanda Nechio. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economics Letter 2017-27, September 2017.
"Le trattative? Atene in bicicletta lanciata contro il camion-Europa," Il Fatto Quotidiano, August 3, 2015.
"Why Are Real Rates So Low?" Slides from the Bank of England/CEPR Monetary Policy Roundtable, June 25, 2015.
"Riforme Strutturali e Politica Monetaria in Europa," with Andrea Raffo. In La Sfida Europea. Riforme, Crescita e Occupazione, V. De Luca and D. Salvatore (eds.), Franco Angeli (2015).
"Lessons from America," The Economist Free Exchange Blog, November 4, 2014.
"Deflation in the Euro Zone: Desperate Times, Desperate Measures," The Economist Free Exchange Blog, January 15, 2014.
"How Stimulatory Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases?" with Vasco Curdia. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economics Letter 2013-22, August 2013. (Media coverage: Wall Street Journal, The Economist, CNBC, Financial Times).
"How Much Will the Second Round of Large-Scale Asset Purchases Affect Inflation and Unemployment?" with Vasco Curdia. Liberty Street Economics, May 2011. (Media coverage: New York Times, Financial Times).