Expertise & Projects

My work sits at the intersection of structural modelling and applied policy and risk analysis. Selected projects are described without client names; publications are on the Research page.

Macro models & policy evaluation

I design counterfactual and policy scenarios with general-equilibrium models and translate policy measures into model shocks, separating short-run demand effects from long-run effects on productivity, potential output and investment.

• European Commission, DG Competition (2023-24): macroeconomic effects of competition in the EU. MATER simulations driven by firm-level markups, benchmarked against QUEST with the JRC. Report · JPM article

• Long-run scenarios for Italian real interest rates to 2060 for a banking group (annual, since 2022).

• International forecasting: UK country lead; Switzerland country block (VECM); electricity-price module (error-correction models) for baseline and energy-shock scenarios.

Demography, ageing & pensions

Population ageing changes labour supply, saving, public finances and the equilibrium interest rate. I study these channels with large-scale overlapping-generations models that embed demographic projections and human-capital accumulation.

• Pension reform: welfare and fiscal effects of Italy's transition to a Notional Defined Contribution system (working paper, 2025).

• Social-risk indicators for a bank's ESG disclosure: demographic, migration and housing-market indicators, population projections to 2070.

• Household wealth across generations: baby-boomer wealth and the intergenerational wealth transfer (2025).

• Earlier research: labour market institutions, fertility and homeownership (PhD, Stockholm School of Economics).

Risk & stress testing

I build scenario-consistent macro-financial and climate paths for stress tests and risk models, and I review forecasting and stress-testing frameworks.

• EU one-off “Fit-for-55” climate scenario analysis: support to a bank (2023-24).

• Macroeconomic and climate-transition scenarios for MENA economies, with a sovereign-debt model (2023-25).

• Research: distributional consequences of sovereign debt distress through banks and housing.

Climate transition

I translate NGFS pathways into country-level macroeconomic scenarios and study the costs and distributional effects of climate policy with an OLG-based integrated assessment model.

• Long-run macro-climate scenarios to 2100 (Net Zero, Delayed Transition, Hot House World) for a major Italian banking group (2024).

• NGFS Phase IV-V scenarios for countries in Southern Europe and the MENA region (2023-26).

• CO2-intensity pathways for buildings under NGFS scenarios, for real-estate climate-risk models (2023-24).

• Projections to 2030 of sustainability indicators (emissions, energy, population and education).

• Research: “Efficiency and Equity in Green Transitions” (MADME 2025).