Research

Published notes

• “What’s Behind the Uneven Jobs Recovery in Regions after COVID-19?”, with Lars Ludolph and Harm-Jan Rouwendal. (May 2023) OECD article 

• “Remote Work Will Not Solve Housing Affordability in Big Cities” (November 2022) OECD article 

• "Worker Churn at Establishments Over the Business Cycle" (Aug. 2020) FEDS note html

• "Labor Market Outcomes in Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Areas: Signs of Growing Disparities" (Sept. 2017) FEDS note html [cited by The Economist, IMF, Atlanta Fed, U.S. Joint Economic Committee, Brookings Hamilton Project, BLS, Federal Reserve]

• "Job Reallocation and Unemployment in Equilibrium" (April 2017) FEDS note html 

Working papers

"Mid-size Settlements in Europe. Definition, Population Trends, and Contribution to Regional Development", with Paolo Veneri and David Burgalassi (Journal of Regional Science, forthcoming 2025) pdf

• Abstract: This paper analyses population trends throughout Europe at a granular spatial resolution between 2011 and 2021, focusing on midsize settlements (cities and towns from 5,000 to 250,000 inhabitants) and their surrounding areas. Settlements were delineated following the Degree of Urbanisation definition and using the 2021 population grid provided by Eurostat. While large cities drive population dynamics in Europe, midsize settlements show highly heterogeneous population trends. The observed differences in population growth are related to specific settlement features, such as population size, urban rank, accessibility, and service provision. For midsize settlements and their respective surrounding areas, access to cities is the strongest predictor of population growth. Availability of services and amenities also matters, but only within settlements' boundaries. In a typical daily commute region, population growth of midsize settlements is associated with growth in the rest of the region, suggesting localised spread effects with positive implications for regional development. 

“Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis”, with Tomaz Cajner, Andrew Figura, Brendan M. Price, and David Ratner (July 2020) pdf

• Abstract: In the spring of 2020, many observers relied heavily on weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits (UI) to estimate contemporaneous reductions in US employment induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Though UI claims provided a timely, high-frequency window into mounting layoffs, the cumulative volume of initial claims filed through the May reference week substantially exceeded realized reductions in payroll employment and likely contributed to the historically large discrepancy between consensus expectations of further April-to-May job losses and the strong job gains reflected in the May employment report. Analyzing the relationship between UI claims and underlying employment, we argue that insured unemployment—an alternative high-frequency indicator that responds to gross job gains as well as gross job losses—offers important advantages as a barometer of labor market conditions. Adjusting for reporting artifacts and for time lags between employment flows and associated claims, we show that insured unemployment comoved strongly with payroll employment throughout the first months of the pandemic, as it did during the Great Recession.

“Labor Market Effects of the Oxycodone-Heroin Epidemic”, with David Cho, Daniel Garcia Molina, and Joshua Montes (April 2021) pdf

• Abstract: We estimate the causal effects of heroin use on labor market outcomes by proxying for heroin use with prior exposure to oxycodone, the largest of the prescription opioids with a well-documented history of abuse. After a nationwide tightening in the supply of oxycodone in 2010, states with greater prior exposure to oxycodone experienced much larger increases in heroin use and mortality. We find increases in heroin use led to declines in employment and labor force participation rates, particularly for white, young, and less educated groups, consistent with the profile of oxycodone misusers. The results show the importance of extending beyond prescriptions when accounting for the labor market effects of the opioid crisis. 

"The Urban-Rural Divide in Labor Force Participation", with Paolo Ramezzana (April 2018)

• Abstract: Prime-age adults in non-metropolitan areas of the U.S. are less likely to be employed compared to prime-age adults in metropolitan areas. The gap has widened steadily over the last decade and is mostly visible in labor force participation rates. This paper looks at labor force participation by metropolitan status along a number of different dimensions and shows that urban-rural gaps are widespread across demographic groups and regions. Local labor market conditions do not provide a sufficient explanation for the observed gaps. 

"Employment Dynamics in a Signaling Model with Workers' Incentives" pdf

• Abstract: Many firms adjust employment in a "lumpy" manner -- infrequently and in large bursts. This paper shows how worker morale can distort firms' employment adjustments. In the model, a firm's productivity depends on its workers' effort and workers' income depends on the firm's profitability. The firm has private information about demand shocks but workers try to infer the firm's profitability from its employment decisions. The equilibrium of this signaling model has a pooling region in which the firm hoards labor (i.e. incurs costs to keep employment high) to maintain workers' effort in the face of small negative shocks. In equilibrium, lumpy adjustments such as mass layoffs can be optimal once negative shocks accumulate and it becomes too costly for the firm to conceal information from its workers.

 "The Timing of Mass Layoff Episodes: Evidence from U.S. Microdata" pdf

• Abstract: This paper studies employment decisions at a large number of U.S. companies over the 2007-2012 period, during and after the Great Recession. To this end, I build a panel dataset that matches publicly-listed companies' financial reports to their announced layoff episodes. Using limited dependent variable regressions, I find that layoffs respond to accumulated changes in a company's financial conditions. While recent financial changes have the largest impacts on layoff propensities, financial changes over at least four previous quarters appear to have additional marginal effects.

Work in progress

Geographic polarization and migration, with Nicko Gladstone and Christopher Smith

Opioids and occupational drug testing, with David Cho, Daniel Garcia Molina, and Joshua Montes

A theoretical and empirical analysis of externalities in the market provision of long-term preventive care, with Paolo Ramezzana

Product quality, competition, and workers’ skills: causes and consequences of high labor turnover

Earlier working papers

"Poverty and International Migration: An Occupational Wage Approach'', 2012.

"Labor Statistics for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database'', with Marinos Tsigas, 2010.