ANNOUNCEMENT: I have made most of the material for my unit on International Finance and Economics public. You can access it here.

Social Media Contributions

IMF fumbles again, Thread (Jul, 2023)

Dividend payout ratio, comment (Jun, 2023)

True value of the exchange rate and debt sustainability, comment (May, 2023)

Why taxing 'reserves' is a bad idea?, Thread (May, 2023)

Why inflation is so high in Pakistan?, Thread based on my presentation at the Lahore School (May, 2023)

Pakistan's default risk, Comment (Apr, 2023)

Why labour productivity is so low in Pakistan?, Thread (Apr, 2023)

200 years history of the returns on the foreign currency bonds with those of the US/UK, Data (Apr, 2023)

Pakistan's fiscal deficit and interest payment as percent of GDP, Data (Apr, 2023)

Markets working their way towards debt sustainability 2, Comment (Apr, 2023)

Markets working their way towards debt sustainability 1, Comment (Apr, 2023)

Today's high inflation is not due to money supply, Comment (Apr, 2023)

APTMA, subsidies, and export performance, Thread (Apr, 2023)

Cost structure of textile industry based on 2015-16 survey, Data (Apr, 2023)

Some perspective, Data (Apr, 2023)

Should SBP raise rates?, Thread (Mar, 2023)

Pak military controlled 12% of state land as of 2007, Data (Mar, 2023)

No migration for economic reasons?, Data (Mar, 2023)

A negative money supply shock: case study of Afghanistan, Comment (Mar, 2023)

Lessons from Turkey, Comment (Mar, 2023)

What I got wrong, Comment (Mar, 2023)

Largest farms are most underutilised, Data (Feb, 2023)

Pak external debt repayments mostly commercial in nature, Data (Feb, 2023)

Interest and other income related outflows, Data (Feb, 2023)

"Gambling for resurrection", Paper (Feb, 2023)

Debt restructuring of 1999-2001, Thread (Jan, 2023)

EAG questions SBP's performance, Press Release (Jan, 2023)

Pakistan needs to stop drinking the import substitution kool aid, Article (Jan, 2023)

Conversation with Uzair Younus on Pak economy, Podcast (Jan, 2023)

Conversation with Imtiaz Gul on Pak economy, Vlog (Jan, 2023)

Conversation with Asad Aijaz on Pak economy, Vlog (Jan, 2023)

EAG argues for debt restructuring, Press Release (Jan, 2023)

A low Capital-Output ratio and what it means for growth, Thread (Dec, 2022)

Understanding Dar's Folly, Thread (Dec, 2022)

Pakistan's debt crisis, Thread (Dec, 2022)

Crises, interest groups, and protection, Thread (Dec, 2022)

Why real interest rates matter, Thread (Nov, 2022)

Recapping Monetary Policy in Pakistan, Thread (Nov, 2022)

Returns on investment, liberalisation, and growth: a case study of India and China, Thread (Oct, 2022)

Lack of participation in global value chains and poor export performance, Thread (Oct, 2022)

Tax collection and local corruption, Comment (Oct, 2022)

How policymakers and the IMF continue to make costly mistakes, Thread (Sep, 2022)

Short comment on floods, Comment (Aug, 2022)

How SBP spent reserves to finance CAD and left Pakistan exposed to global shocks, Thread (Aug, 2022)

• an earlier thread, (Jul, 2022) 

Recent trends in textile exports, Comment (Aug, 2022)

• an earlier thread, (Jul, 2022)

Understanding recent appreciation in the exchange rate, Thread (Aug, 2022)

External debt servicing increases to unsustainable levels, Comment (Aug, 2022)

What is happening with Pak rupee?, Thread (Jul, 2022)

Default probabilities going mad, Comment (Jul, 2022)

Flirting with default, Thread (Jul, 2022)

Remittances are not the answer, Comment (Jul, 2022)

Comparison of capital flows and reserve accumulation between Pakistan and Bangladesh, Comment (Jul, 2022)

Wasting reserves on CAD despite impending debt repayments and worsening global conditions (some comparison with other countries), Thread (Jul, 2022)

Capital flows, reserve accumulation, and growth: A comparison with India, Thread (Jul, 2022)

Comment on dividend pay-outs by corporations listed on PSX, Comment (Jun, 2022)

Some data on tax expenses as a % of net pre-tax profits, Comment (Jun, 2022)

On the plight of Baloch parents, Comment (Jun, 2022)

Productivity multiplier for Pakistan, Exercise (Jun, 2022)

Leontief multipliers for electricity and gas sector, Exercise (Jun, 2022)

Domar weights for Pakistan, Exercise (Jun, 2022)

Recent trends in debt-to-GDP ratio, Thread (Jun, 2022)

Employment trends in the LSM sectors, Comment (Jun, 2022)

Short history of fiscal deficits, external borrowing and current account deficit for Pakistan, Thread (June, 2022)

Puzzle: Wages are higher in Balochistan than elsewhere, Thread (May, 2022)

Pakistan's International Investment Position: A case of geopolitical rents, Thread (May, 2022)

The never ending struggle of Khokha owners in Pakistan, Thread (May 2022)

Unconventional monetary policy and implications for the repo rate: A case study of Pakistan, Thread (May 2022)

Raza Baqir's tenure and Quantitative Tightening, Thread (May 2022)

Current account deficit in FY21: A story of fiscal stimulus and international commodity prices, Thread (April 2022)

Fiscal discipline paying off but new risks threaten stability, Thread (April 2022)

Thoughts on IMF programs and debt sustainability, Thread (April 2022)

Increasing external debt servicing puts financial stability under stress, Thread (April 2022)

Observation on survey results after VONC, April 2022

Initial reaction on Miftah Ismail's interaction with economists, Thread (April 2022)

EAG's policy statement on the immediate challenges the new government faces, April 2022

Comment on ADB's growth projection for FY23, Thread (April 2022)

Reflections on PTI's time in government: Where I agree and disagree with Atif Mian, Thread (April 2022)

Changes in some economic indicators between FY18-21, Thread (April 2022)

Deterioration in external debt repayment capacity, Thread (April 2022)

A useless thread on Pakistan's defence needs and geostrategic realignment, Thread (April 2022)

EAG's success, April 2022

A crisis of democratic values, Thread (April 2022)

Takeaways from PBS labour force survey for FY21, Thread (April 2022)

Update on government credit uptake from banking system, March 2022

A significant improvement in recovery of electricity bills, March 2022

An observation on migration trends in Pakistan, March 2022

Update: Decomposition of textile exports for the first eight months of FY22, March 2022

The inflation debate in advanced economies, Thread (March 2022)

Comment on CAD and capital flows, March 2022

My presentation on SBP Independence, Credibility, and the Inflation Expectations, March 2022

Thread on international prices and Pakistan's imports and exports, Thread (March 2022)

Comment on PTI's relief package, Thread (March 2022)

Returns from investing in KSE 100 index, Thread (March 2022)

An observation on SBP's statement on "in-kind imports," Feb 2022

Anti-hoarding laws and warehousing, Thread (Feb 2022)

Comment on import substitution of mobile phones, Thread (Jan 2022)

Who sets the inflation target?, Jan 2022

Are housing societies eating into agricultural land?, Jan 2022

EAG's analysis of Pakistan's textile exports performance, Jan 2022

How fiscal stimulus in Q4-FY21 destabilised CAD in Q1-FY22, Jan 2022

How favourable exchange rate regime has improved Pakistan's export performance, Thread (Dec 2021)

Why SBP continues to fail in meeting its inflation target? (link to paper), Dec 2021 

SBP's fiscal operations and monetary policy, Dec 2021

Hammad Azhar's recommendations on sugar industry reforms which did not see the light of day, Dec 2021

Government external borrowing and CAD, Dec 2021

EAG presents its vision for economic transformation, Dec 2021

SBP clarification on their inflation target and my follow-up thoughts, Thread (Nov 2021)

Response to Pakistan Business Council on textile export performance, Thread (Nov 2021)

The illusion of textile exports, Thread (Nov 2021)

EAG Vision Document (Nov 2021)

Is SBP responsible for the recent exchange rate depreciation?, Thread (Nov 2021)

Inflation and the Federal Reserve, Thread (Nov 2021)

Inflation in Pakistan (Nov 2021)

• SBP clarification

Policy rate and SBP holdings of government debt (Nov 2021)

Did SBP use reserves to defend the currency?, Thread (Oct 2021)

SBP trying to manage more than its share, Thread (Oct 2021)

The correlation between global commodity prices and Pakistan's imports & exports, Thread (Oct 2021)

Pakistan: grow fast or smart to create more jobs?, Thread (Oct 2021)

Capital flows and CAD (Sep 2021)

Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic (Sep 2021)

Two takeaways from labour force survey 2018-19 (Sep 2021)

A New Vision for Auto Policy, Presentation (Sep 2021)

The most interesting stuff (July 2021)

Comment on China's growth miracle (July 2021)

Another credit bubble in the making? (July 2021)

Protectionist policies and the two tests for assessing such interventions, Thread (July 2021)

The rise of PTI (in google searches), Thread (July 2021)

External borrowing, aid and current account deficit, Thread (July 2021)

Budget 2021: an exercise in wishful thinking, Thread (June 2021)

Comment on macro performance in FY21, Thread (June 2021)

Employment trends and economic recovery, Thread (June 2021)

Real wage dynamics during currency crisis, Thread (May, 2021)

- a follow up thread can read here

Can we grow out of the capacity payments trap?, Thread (May, 2021)

The 'middleman' and inflation, Thread (May, 2021)

Why tariff liberalisation of late 90s & early 00s failed to deliver in Pakistan?, Thread (Dec, 2020)

National Dialogue and some unanswered questions, Thread (Dec, 2020)

Using Solow's model to understand high return yet low growth in Pakistan, Thread (Nov, 2020)

Credit Cycle, Currency Crisis and the role of Monetary Policy, Thread (Nov, 2020)

Credit Uptake, Price Controls and Pharma Industry, Thread (Oct, 2020)

Trends in Broad Money Supply and Prospects for Future Inflation, Thread (Oct, 2020)

Factors Underlying Regional Trends in Prices of Key Food Items, Thread (Oct, 2020) 

Role of Free Trade in Early Islamic Caliphates, Thread (Oct, 2020)

Comment on a graph (Oct, 2020)

Comment on Guaranteed Returns, Support Prices and Bad Regulations, Thread (Sep, 2020)

How to Think About Elite Capture?, Thread (Sep, 2020)

- see here for a longer/better version: longer version

Comment on Single National Curriculum (Aug, 2020)

Current Account Deficits and Debt Sustainability, Thread  (Jul, 2020)

Summary of Douglas Irwin's Paper on Import Substitution, Thread (Jul, 2020)

Problems Plaguing the Electricity Sector, Thread (Jun, 2020)

Contradictions in Industrial Policy, Thread (Jun, 2020)

Comment on Domestic Purchasing Power and Regional Trade (Jun, 2020)

Comment on Distributional Implications of Off-Grid Technologies (Jun, 2020)

Coverage in Business Recorder (Jun, 2020)

What Lead to High Growth during 2017 and 2018, Thread (Jun, 2020)

Correcting Misallocations to Achieve High Growth and Productivity, Thread (Jun, 2020)

Sugar Scandal of 2019, Thread (May, 2020)

George Saliba's take on the fall of Islamic empire, Thread (May, 2020)

Understanding Hedging, Thread (May, 2020)

COVID19, Lockdown and Policy Response, Thread (May, 2020)

Good News and Bad News, Thread (Apr, 2020)

Adopting Inflation Targeting as Monetary Policy Regime, Thread (Apr, 2020)

Comment on Sugar Subsidies and Support Prices (Apr, 2020)

Summary of Jonathan Heathcote's paper on COVID and Mitigation Policies, Thread (Apr, 2020)

Inflation, Exchange Rate and the Monetary Policy, Thread (Mar, 2020)

Summary of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas's Chapter on COVID and Economic Policy Response, Thread (Mar, 2020)

Comment on Macro Stability and Resilience to Shocks (Mar, 2020)

Comment on Monetary Policy Response and TERF, (Mar, 2020)

Composition of Money Supply (Feb, 2020)

Why is Inflation Increasing?, Thread (Feb, 2020)

Portfolio Inflows mirror a Fiscal Problem, Thread (Jan, 2020)

A Noble Soul and Price Controls, Thread (Jan, 2020)

The problem with Import Restrictions, Thread (Jan, 2020)

Trends in Real Interest Rate and Savings (Dec, 2019)

Applauding Justice Khosa (Dec, 2019)