messy monday

as ukrainians prepared to choose their president for the first time since the orange revolution, it remained unclear whether the outcome of the feb. 7 election would be determined by a free and fair vote, by appointed election commissioners, a split court – or on the streets, again.

with only three days before the crucial vote, in which orange revolution villain victor yanukovych is seen as the front-running candidate, the country’s fifth presidential election resembled more a requiem for democracy than a celebration of people power.

during a live televised press conference on feb. 4, prime minister yulia tymoshenko, an orange revolution hero and yanukovych’s rival, said she would support a second revolution if controversial election changes introduced a day earlier by her opponent’s camp come into force.

“if we can't ensure a free and fair vote, we will call people to the streets. there should be absolutely no doubt about this,” tymoshenko said. she called on president victor yushchenko to veto the bill. “i ask you not to allow yanukovych to rape our democracy and a free presidential election,” she said. yushchenko ignored his former orange revolution ally’s plea, unceremoniously signing the bill into law hours later.

campaigning outside of kyiv, yanukovych was just as nonchalant.

“normal people won’t take to city squares to protest. only a few will show up, the types who enjoy the kinds of dishes tymoshenko cooks up – dirt, lies, gossip and deceit,” yanukovych said.

with voter fatigue sky high after five years of political stalemate, experts are not predicting a replay of the orange revolution. but, things change quickly in ukraine, and no one, including the nation's political powerbrokers, know what to expect next.

the most likely scenario, analysts say, is that no candidate wins a clear victory, with the battle for ukraine’s next president switching from the ballot box, bouncing back and forth between the courts, parliament and, possibly, international mediators.

no one wins

a major risk to holding a fair and clear-cut vote, according to foreign observers and domestic election watchdogs, is the last-minute changes to the election law. they nullify the requirement for a quorum of election officials at more than 30,000 polling precincts nationwide, and also allow local government officials to appoint their own representatives to regional and local polling precincts. “they make the election false, dishonest and uncontrollable,” said tymoshenko.

“unfortunately party of regions are now trying again (like in 2004) to create the condition for fraud in the sunday election,” said hanne severinsen, the former co-rapporteur of the parliamentary assembly of the council of europe and advisor to tymoshenko.

according to andriy mahera, deputy chairman of the central election commission, new provisions made an already flawed law worse.

“each candidate has his or her sympathizers in different regions of the country. if one of them wants to prevent a quorum on an election commission, the temptation for the other to respond in kind would be overwhelming,” mahera said on feb. 3.

a functioning government, parliament and judiciary need to exist before ukraine’s next president can even begin fulfilling his or her campaign promises. but analysts say this may not happen for months because the results will almost certainly be challenged and the eventual loser may make a comeback in a snap parliamentary poll.

this is not what ukrainians, many of whom today are less hopeful than five years ago, want to hear. “voters don’t want change for change’s sake,” andriy yermolaev, director of the sofiya center for social research. “they want a change toward predictability, not more tumult.”

the paradox, yermolaev said, is that this won’t happen after the election, whatever the outcome.

“redistribution of state authority can only be accomplished … by rebooting the system, that is, holding yet another election,” said yermolaev. “during the 1999 and 2004 presidential election the mood on the streets was expectant. people believed changes for the better were in store. that’s not true today.”

neither candidate is expected to be able to form a stable majority coalition in parliament, which will be necessary to even start delivering on their ambitious campaign promises. there will be more political theater until one side gives up or the rivals call a truce, according to oleksiy haran, a political science professor at the national university of kyiv mohyla academy.

“the first act of the next drama will be over whether to recognize the poll results as legitimate,” haran said. deciding whether to dissolve parliament and hold a snap parliamentary poll will follow, he predicted.

yuriy yakymenko, political and legal program director at the razumkov center for economic and political studies, a kyiv-based think tank, said the race would likely be contested fiercely by both sides if the margin of victory is less than five percentage points. “the central election commission (cec) will play the most important role in determining the result of the election,” yakymenko said. “the outcome of court appeals will be less decisive.”

haran and yakymenko, along with a half a dozen other pundits contacted by the kyiv post, said a majority of the 15 cec members have ruled consistently in favor of petitions filed on behalf of yanukovych during the course of the presidential campaign.

he wins

an uncontested victory for yanukovych, who five years ago lost a revote yushchenko in 2004 after ukraine’s supreme court nixed the runoff poll because of election fraud in his favor, would mark a remarkable comeback for the 59-year old donetsk oblast native. his support comes from ukraine’s russian-speaking eastern and southern oblasts, where he is expected to win handily, just as in 2004.

during a campaign stop in his hometown yenakievo, donetsk oblast, yanukovych said on feb. 2 that sacking tymoshenko would be his first priority, if elected. the candidate and his party of regions earlier announced they would begin negotiations feb. 9 with other political leaders to form a new majority parliamentary coalition to replace the prime minister.

according to the constitution, the prime minister remains in office until a new majority coalition can be formed.

party of regions and their most likely allies, the communists and speaker volodymyr lytvyn’s faction, only have 225 votes in the 450-seat verkhovna rada, one vote short of majority. they would have to recruit some of yushchenko’s our ukraine faction deputies to even consider a slim majority. they had managed to do so in a crucial vote the previous week that ousted tymoshenko ally yuriy lutsenko as interior minister.

yanukovych has promised to call a snap parliamentary election, the third in five years, if his attempts to create a stability majority in parliament fail. but the procedure for dissolving the legislature is also a complicated, time-consuming task, and the next scheduled parliamentary election is only a year away.

the constitution provides for terminating the powers of parliament in three instances: if the legislature fails to form a new majority coalition within one month, if a government is not formed within 60 days of the resignation of the cabinet of ministers, or if plenary sessions fail to commence within thirty days of a single regular session.

yanukovych, meanwhile, will be hard pressed to deliver on campaign promises to attract billions in foreign investments, introduce tax holidays for small and medium businesses and double the average pension to hr 2,000 ($250).

she wins

tymoshenko has promised not to dissolve parliament if elected. she claims that she will be able to cobble together a new majority coalition “within three minutes” around the candidacy of sergiy tigipko as prime minister. but tigipko, who finished third after tymoshenko in the first round of the presidential election on jan. 17, is yet to give his assent.

appealing mainly to voters in ukraine’s western and central oblasts, tymoshenko said her first official act as president would be to sign ukraine’s 2010 budget. her first presidential decrees, meanwhile, would be aimed at defining grants of authority between the cabinet of ministers, parliament and the president’s office.

tymoshenko has promised during her campaign to hold a referendum on changing the constitution, which she says muddles executive authority by diluting presidential powers. she has also vowed to replace the system of cronyism and corruption backed by rich tycoons supporting her rival.

hanna herman, a party of regions deputy, claimed on feb. 4 that tymoshenko is likely to remove her candidacy at the last moment. “tymoshenko is considering a scenario of withdrawing her candidacy. it’s better to remove her candidacy than recognize defeat,” herman said.

the election law gives candidates this right, but not the in last days before the vote. tymoshenko’s spokesperson maryna soroka called it the regions’ little fantasy. “[tymoshenko] will fight till the end,” she said.