Papers by Topic

 Macroeconomics in Developing Countries

• A Socioeconomic Disaggregation of the World Bank Human Capital Index, with Ritika d'Souza and Roberta Gatti.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9020.  2019.

• The World Bank Human Capital Index:  A Guide.  World Bank Research Observer.  2019.

• Methodology for a World Bank Human Capital Index,  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8593.  2018  

  • Link to Human Capital Index data and Human Capital Project website

• Good Countries or Good Projects?  Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank and Asian Development Bank Project Outcomes. with D. Bulman and W. Kolkma.  Review of International Organizations.  2017.

• Aid, Disbursement Delays, and the Real Exchange Rate with A. Jarotschkin.   IMF Economic Review.  2015.

• Predicting World Bank Project Outcomes, with P. Geli and H. Nobakht. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7001.

• Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors.  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2014.

• Good Countries or Good Projects? Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance, with C. Denizer and D. Kaufmann, Journal of Development Economics, 2013.

• How Large is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending , Quarterly Jounal of Economics, 2012.

• Does IDA Engage in Defensive Lending ?, with Carolin Geginat, Review of Economics and Institutions, 2012.

• Who Gets Debt Relief? , with N. Chauvin, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2007.

• When Is External Debt Sustainable? with V. Nehru, World Bank Economic Review. 2006.

• Comparative Advantage and the Cross-Section of Business Cycles, with J. Ventura, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006

• What Has 100 Billion Dollars Worth of Debt Relief Done for Low Income Countries , with N. Chauvin, Unpublished, The World Bank. 2005.

• Household Saving in China, World Bank Economic Review (2000).

• Small States, Small Problems , with W. Easterly, World Development. 1999.

• In Search of the Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization .  Unpublished, The World Bank. 1998.

International Capital Flows

• Sovereign Defaults and Expropriations : Empirical Regularities , with M. Eden and R. Qian, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6218. 2012.

• The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current Account , with J. Ventura, NBER Conference Volume on Current Account Imbalances in G7 Countries, R. Clarida (ed.).

• Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender : Does China's Zero Net Foreign Asset Position Make Economic Sense? with D. Dollar, Journal of Monetary Economics. 2006.

• Country Portfolios , with N. Loayza, L. Servén and J. Ventura, Journal of the European Economic Association, June 2005.

• Trade Integration and Risk Sharing , with J. Ventura, European Economic Review. 2002.

• Current Accounts in the Long and Short Run , with J. Ventura, NBER Macro Annual. 2002.

• Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks? Journal of International Economics.2002.

• Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries , with J. Ventura, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2000.

  • Response to a recent critique of this paper published in the Journal of International Economics

Applied Econometrics

• Weak Instruments in Growth Regressions:  Implications for Recent Cross-Country Evidence on Inequality and Growth.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7494.  2016

• Instrumental Variables Regressions with Uncertain Exclusion Restrictions: A Bayesian Approach, Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2012

  • Tabulation of the posterior distribution of the structural slope coefficient for various degrees of uncertaintly about the exclusion restriction

• Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially-Dependent Panel Data , with J. Driscoll, Review of Economics and Statistics. 1998.

• Growth Forecasts Using Time Series and Growth Models , with G. Monokroussos, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2224. 1998.

Growth, Inequality and Poverty

• A New Distribution Sensitive Index for Measuring Welfare, Poverty and Inequality, with Christoph Lakner, Berk Ozler, Benoit Decerf, Dean Jolliffe, Olivier Sterck and Nishant Yonzan.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 10470.

  • Replication Package

  • Blog on methodology

  • Blog on using new index as a measure of shared prosperity

• Measuring Intragenerational Mobility Using Aggregate Data, with Roy Van der Weide, Journal of Economic Growth. 2022.

  • Earlier working paper version:  Approximating Income Distribution Dynamics With Aggregate Data.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8123.  2017

• Growth Still is Good for the Poor with D. Dollar and T. Kleineberg. European Economic Review.  2016

  • Replication dataset and code

• Growth, Inequality and Social Welfare, with D. Dollar and T. Kleineberg.  Economic Policy, 2015.

  • Version presented at October 2014 Economic Policy Panel Meeting in Rome

• Do Poverty Traps Exist?, with D. McKenzie, Journal of Economic Perspectives.  2014.

• The Welfare Effects of a Large Depreciation: The Case of Egypt 2000-2005 , in The Egyptian Economy: Current Challenges and Future Prospects, H. Kheir-El-Din (ed.). 2008.

• Poverty Traps, Aid, and Growth , with C. Raddatz, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 82:2, pp. 315-347. 2007.

• When Is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence . Journal of Development Economics. 2006.

• Aid, Growth, and Poverty , in The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid, P. Isard et. al. (eds.), Washington: International Monetary Fund. 2006.

• Trade, Growth, and Poverty , with D. Dollar, The Economic Journal, Vol. 114:493, pp. F22-F49(1). 2004.

  • A short summary from Finance and Development (2001)

    • Comment on this summary | Our response

    • Unpublished critique from Oxfam | Our response

• Growth is Good for the Poor , with D. Dollar, Journal of Economic Growth. 2002.

  • Dataset (Excel format, 397kb) | Dataset (Zip file, 121kb)

  • A short summary from Development Outreach (2000)

    • A critique of this paper | Our response

    • Another critique of this paper | Our response

• Spreading the Wealth , with D. Dollar. Foreign Affairs. 2001.

Institutions and Governance                  

• Predicting Conflict, with Bledi Celiku.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8075.  2017  

• Doing the Survey Two-Step:  The Effects of Reticence on Estimates of Corruption in Two-Stage Survey Questions, with N. Karalashvili and P. Murrell.  Forthcoming, International Economic Association Conference Volume on Institutions and Corruption.

• Misunderestimating Corruption, with P. Murrell. Review of Economics and Statistics.  2016.

• Can Specific Policy Indicators Identify Reform Priorities?, with N. Tawara, Journal of Economic Growth, 2013.

  • Web Appendix A

  • Web Appendix B                                                             

• Does Respondent Retcence Affect the Result of Corruption Surveys? Evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for Nigeria , with B.Clausen and P. Murrell, Edward Elgar Handbook of the Economics of Corruption, Vol 2, S. Rose-Ackerman and T. Soreide (eds), 2011. 

• Governance Indicators: Where Are We, And Where Should We Be Going? with D. Kaufmann, World Bank Research Observer. 2008.

• Institutions, Trade, and Growth: Revisiting the Evidence , with D. Dollar, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3004. 2003.

• Institutions, Trade and Growth , with D. Dollar, Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.2002.

  • Dataset (Excel format, 472kb) | Dataset (Zip file, 149kb)                         

• Growth without Governance , with D. Kaufmann, Economia. 2002.

The Worldwide Governance Indicators

Please visit www.govindicators.org for more information on the Worldwide Governance Indicators project, as well as web-based data access

• The Worldwide Governance Indicators:  Methodology and 2024 Update with Daniel Kaufmann.  World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 10952.  (2024)

• The Worldwide Governance Indicators : Methodology and Analytical Issues , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, The Hague Journal of Rule of Law, 2011.

• Governance Matters VIII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2008 , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4978. 2009.

• Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2007 , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4654. 2008.

• Governance Indicators: Where Are We, And Where Should We Be Going? with D. Kaufmann, World Bank Research Observer. 2008.

• Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2006 , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4280. 2007.

• The Worldwide Governance Indicators Project: Answering the Critics , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4149. 2007.

• Governance Matters V: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators 1996-2005 , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4012. 2006.

• Measuring Governance Using Perceptions Data , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, in Edward Elgar Handbook of Economic Corruption, S. Rose-Ackerman (ed.). Forthcoming.

• Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004 , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3630. 2005.

• Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996-2002 , with D. Kaufmann and M. Mastruzzi, World Bank Economic Review. 2004.

• Growth without Governance , with D. Kaufmann, Economia. 2002.

• Governance Matters II: Updated Governance Indicators for 2000-01 , with D. Kaufmann and P. Zoido-Lobatón, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2772. 2002.

• "Governance Matters", with D. Kaufmann and P. Zoido-Lobatón, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2196. 1999.

• Aggregating Governance Indicators , with D. Kaufmann and P. Zoido-Lobatón, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2195. 1999.

• This project has prompted various critiques that are addressed here

  • Growth and Governance: A Reply , Journal of Politics, Vol. 69:2, pp.553-560. May 2007.

  • Growth and Governance: A Rejoinder , Journal of Politics, Vol. 69:2, pp. 568-570. May 2007.

  • The Wordwide Governance Indicators Project: Answering the Critics

  • Response to "What Do the Worldwide Governance Indicators Measure?" , European Journal of Development Research. Forthcoming.

  • The Worldwide Governance Indicatiors: Six, One, or None

Miscellaneous Papers 

• Product Quality, Productive Efficiency and International Technology Diffusion , with I. Soloaga and J. Tybout, in Global Integration and Technology Transfer, B. Hoekman and B. Javorcik, (eds.). 2006.

• Product Prices and the OECD Cycle , with J. Ventura, B.E. Journals in Macroeconomics, Advances in Macroeconomics. 2002.                  

• Exports and Economic Performance: Evidence from a Panel of Chinese Enterprises . Revue d’Economie du Dévelopement. 1999.