Ms. Khan’s class has been learning about ecosystems, communities of living creatures that interact with each other and their environment. “Since everything in an ecosystem is connected, a change in one part of the ecosystem affects everything else in the ecosystem,” Ms. Kahn explained. “A forest is one example of an ecosystem. Imagine that most of the black bears in a forest are killed by hunters. These bears eat a lot of plants and fruits. With black bears diminished in the ecosystem, there is now more food for smaller animals, like squirrels. The number of squirrels grows. Since there are more squirrels, the foxes that eat squirrels now have more food. The number of foxes also goes up. ” 

Dava raised her hand to speak, “It seems like ecosystems are a lot like human systems. Even an action that seems good can cause changes you would never have expected. I’m sure that’s true for military actions, too. There are lots of expected changes, but probably many unexpected ones, as well.”

“That’s an interesting point,” Ms. Khan said. “Perhaps you could imagine an example and write it up to share with your classmates.”

Dava made up this example describing the potential effects of a military action.

The U.S. sends troops to the country of Pretendia because the country’s dictator is brutally murdering anyone who disagrees with him. Also the dictator’s regime is developing weapons that might eventually pose a threat to other countries. The U.S. troops drop bombs on military bases and places that make weapons. These troops kill the country’s leader. 

Many people in Pretendia are excited to choose a new leader. Others who supported the dictator are angry and become violent, causing new turmoil that leaves more people dead or hurt. People who were in jail for disagreeing with the dictator are freed. Their families are grateful. However, some other families are displaced by the fighting. 

At the same time, with the new government, there is more trade with other countries. Many businesses become more successful. Some families earn more money and are better off. Nearby countries also benefit from more trade. However, areas near where bombs were dropped now have chemicals in the soil and groundwater. Farmers are not able to grow as many crops. Sickness increases in these areas, and more children      are born with birth defects.

The example Dava presented is not real. Do you think her estimate of what would happen is realistic? Why or why not?

Who else might be affected by this military action that Dava did not mention?

Discussion Question:

Every country is part of a complex system. When we change something in that system, it is nearly impossible to predict everything that will happen. Some experts say the key question is: Will the country be more or less stable after the U.S. sends in troops? Other experts say the most important goal should be protecting human rights. Which do you think is more important? Discuss.