The cross-border effect of monetary policy on house price expectations (with Daniel Marcel te Kaat and Jakob de Haan) Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming
Abstract: Using region-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations from 2016Q3 to 2024Q4, we estimate the impact of Chinese monetary policy surprises on expected house price growth in Canada. Our findings suggest that tighter monetary policy in China leads to lower expected house price growth in Canadian regions with large Chinese populations. Our study shows that this effect is transmitted through lower capital outflows, higher loan interest rates, and lower Chinese house prices. Our study suggests that the monetary policy of a country from which real estate capital inflows originate can explain the spatial heterogeneity of local house price expectations.
Presentations: Australasian Finance and Banking Conference (2025), Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference (2025), FEBRI PhD Conference (2026)
Award: Best PhD Paper Award at the 2025 Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference
The effect of China’s monetary policy communication on financial markets: New evidence (with Jakob de Haan, Daniel Marcel te Kaat, and Yanping Zhao)
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of monetary policy communication by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Chinese government on financial markets. We construct a database of China’s monetary policy communication events and introduce indices of monetary policy communication based on analysts’ interpretation of the communication as reported in the media. Employing an EGARCH model, we find that an increase in the proportion of communications interpreted as indicating monetary policy easing leads to higher stock returns. This effect is driven by government and PBoC written communications. Communication has no impact on government bond yields or financial market volatility.
Presentations: FEBRI PhD Conference (2024), Beyond Basic Questions Workshop (2024), Chinese Economists Society China Conference (2024), FEBRI PhD Conference (2025), RGS Doctoral Conference (2026)
A comparative analysis of China’s high-frequency monetary policy shocks