Journal papers & reports

Journal papers

2026

Watson, J. Katus, T., Shah, M., Barnes, G., Melia, V., Sutherland, A. Are police vetting decisions free from bias? An experimental vignette study with vetting decision-makers. Journal of Experimental Criminology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-025-09726-0

2025

Buchmueller, G., Cathro, C., Dorsett, R., Oppendisano, V., Sutherland, A., Tagliaferri, G. School Exclusion & Youth Custody. Journal of Quantitative Criminology.

Hodgkinson, W., Ariel, B., Assaraf, N. and Sutherland, A. ‘Burglary Prevention Advice Letters: A Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial In Luton, England’, Journal of Criminal Justice.

Valdebenito, S., Gaffney, H., Joliffe, D. and Sutherland, A. School-based interventions for reducing disciplinary school exclusion: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 21(4).

2024

Sutherland, A. ‘Using Research to Improve Policing post Casey - and Why That Might not Happen’, The Political Quarterly, 95(3): 387-570.

Simanovic T, McFarlane P, Brennan I, Graham W, Sutherland A (2024) Focused deterrence: A protocol for a realist multisite randomised controlled trial for evaluating a violence prevention intervention in the UK. PLoS ONE 19(3): e0301023. ISRCTN11650008.

Sutherland, A. and Boyle, A. ‘Violence: we need police and health data to know how violent places are and whether interventions are effective’. Chapter in Part of The Crime Data Handbook.

2023

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A., Weisburd, D., Ilan, Y., and Bland, M. ‘Can the police cool down quality-of-life hotspots? A double-blind national randomized control trial of policing low-harm hotspots’, Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 17, paad040.

2022

Williams, M., Sutherland, A., Roy-Chowdhury, V., Loke, T., Cullen, A., Sloan, L., and Burnap, P. The Effect of the Brexit Vote on the Variation in Race and Religious Hate Crimes. (British Journal of Criminology)

Persian, R. Prastuti, G., Adityawarman, Bogiatzis-Gibbons, D., Kurniawan, M. H., Subroto, G., Mustakim, M., Supriyadi, M. W., Scheunemann, L., Gandy, K., Sutherland, A. ‘Behavioural prompts to increase early filing of tax returns: a population-level randomised controlled trial of 11.2 million taxpayers in Indonesia’, Behavioural Public Policy, 7(3), 701-720.

Ariel, B., Bland, M. and Sutherland, A. Experimental Designs. London: Sage.

2021

Ariel, B., Langley, B., Tankabe, J. Sutherland, A., Factor, R., Weinborn, C. ‘A Simple Checklist, That’s All It Takes: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Field Trial On Improving The Treatment Of Suspected Terrorists By The Police’, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17: 629–655.

Breathnach, S., Koutoukidis, D. A. Lally, P., Boniface, D., Sutherland, A., Llewellyn, C. H. ‘The effect of messaging on the acceptance of swaps to reduce the energy content of snacks and drinks ordered in an experimental online workplace canteen: a randomised controlled trial’, Appetite, 162: 105171.

Sutherland, A., Strang, L., Stepanek, M., Giacomantonio, C., Boyle, A. and Strang, H. ‘Tracking Violent Crime with Ambulance Data: How Much Crime Goes Uncounted?’, Cambridge Journal of Evidence Based Policing, (online first)

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A. and Bland, M. ‘The Trick Doesn’t Work if You’ve Already Seen the Gorilla: How Anticipatory Effects Contaminate Pre-treatment Measures in Field Experiments’, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17: 55-66. (Open Access)

2020

Breathnach, S., Llewellyn, C. H., Koutoukidis, D. A., van Rugge, C. R., Sutherland, A. and Lally, P. ‘Experience of Using an Online Pre-Ordering System for A Workplace Canteen That Offers Lower-Energy Swaps: A Think-Aloud Study’, Nutrients, 12(12): 3878.

Ling, T., Sutherland, A. and Pollard, J. ‘Better evaluations to support the needs of older people in the UK’, RAND Health Quarterly, 8(4): RR-2932-AGEUK.

2019

Ariel, B., Farrar, W. and Sutherland, A. ‘Correction to: The Effect of Police Body Worn Cameras on Use of Force and Citizens’ Complaints Against the Police: A Randomized Controlled Trial’, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 36: 1017–1018.

Thrive at Work Wellbeing Programme Collaboration. 'Evaluation of a policy intervention to promote the health and wellbeing of workers in small and medium sized enterprises–a cluster randomised controlled trial', BMC public health, 19(1): 493. (Open access) Trial Registration: AEARCTR-0003420

Valdebenito, S., Eisner, M., Farrington, D., Ttofi, M., Sutherland, A. School-based interventions for reducing disciplinary school exclusion: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Criminology. (Open access)

Sutherland, A. ‘Resettlement and reoffending of female prisoners: a propensity score analysis’, Criminology & Criminal Justice; 19(1): 115-132.

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A. and Sherman, L. ‘Preventing treatment spillover contamination in criminological field experiments: the case of body-worn police cameras’, Journal of Experimental Criminology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-018-9344-4

2018

Nivette, A., Sutherland, A., Murray, J., Mikton, C. and Eisner, M. ‘Sex differences in violent behaviour are not universal: evidence from sixty low-and middle-income countries’. Aggressive Behavior. (Open access)

Valdebenito, S., Eisner, M., Farrington, D., Ttofi, M., Sutherland, A. School-based interventions for reducing disciplinary school exclusion: a systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews. http://campbellcollaboration.org/library/reducing-school-exclusion-school-based-interventions.html

2017

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A. et al. ‘Paradoxical effects of being observed: testing the effect of police body-worn cameras on assaults against officers’, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 14: 19–47

Ariel, B., Bland, M. and Sutherland, A. ‘Lowering the threshold of effective deterrence—testing the effect of private security agents in public spaces on crime: a randomized controlled trial in a mass transit system’, PLoS One (Online first).

Maskaly, J., Donner, C., Jennings, W. G., Ariel, B. and Sutherland, A. (2017) ‘The effects of body-worn cameras (BWCs) on police and citizen outcomes: A state-of-the-art review’, Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, 40(4): 672-688.

Sutherland, A., Ariel, B., Farrar, W and De Anda, R. ‘Post-Experimental Follow-Ups - Fadeout versus Persistence Effects: The Rialto Police Body-worn Camera Experiment Four Years On’. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 53: 110-116.

Coulton, S.; Stockdale, K.; Marchand, C.; Hendrie, N.; Billings, J.; Boniface, S.; Butler, S.; DeLuca, P.; Drummond, C.; Newbury-Birch, D.; Pellat-Higgins, T; Stevens, A.; Sutherland, A.; Wilson, E. ‘Pragmatic randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a multi-component intervention to reduce substance use and risk-taking behaviour in adolescents involved in the criminal justice system: A trial protocol (RISKIT-CJS)’, BMC Public Health, 17:246.

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A., Henstock, D., Young, J. and Sosinski, G. ‘The Deterrence Spectrum: Explaining why police body-worn cameras ‘work’ or ‘backfire’ in aggressive police-public encounters’, Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 12(1): 6-26

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A. et al. 'Contagious Accountability': A Global Multi-Site Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Police Body-Worn-Cameras on Citizen’s Complaints against the Police’, Criminal Justice & Behaviour, 44(2): 293–316.

Ilie, S., Vignoles, A. and Sutherland, A. ‘Revisiting Free School Meal eligibility as a proxy for socio-economic deprivation in school research’, British Educational Research Journal, 43(2): 253–274. One of the most read papers in BERJ 2017-18.

Obsuth, I., Sutherland, A., Cope, A., Nordby, L., Murray, A. and Eisner, M. ‘London Education and Inclusion Project (LEIP): Results from a cluster-randomised controlled trial of an intervention to reduce school exclusion and antisocial behaviour’, Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 46(3): 538-557. (Online publication 2016. Version of record - March 2017, Volume 46, Issue 3, pp 538–557)

2016

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A. et al. ‘Wearing body cameras increases assaults against officers and does not reduce police use of force: Results from a global multi-site experiment’, European Journal of Criminology, 13(6): 744-755. Most cited and most read EJC paper in last three years.

Ariel, B., Sutherland, A., et al. ‘Report: increases in police use of force in the presence of body-worn cameras are driven by officer discretion: a protocol-based subgroup analysis of ten randomized experiments’, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 12(3): 453–463. Top downloaded article in the Journal’s history

Van Ginneken, E., Molleman, T. and Sutherland, A. ‘An ecological analysis of prison overcrowding and suicide rates in England and Wales, 2000–2014’, International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 50: 76-82.

Obsuth, I., Cope, A., Sutherland, A., Nordby, L., Murray, A., Eisner, M. ‘London Education and Inclusion Project (LEIP): Exploring negative and null effects of a cluster-randomised school-intervention to reduce school exclusion – findings from protocol-based subgroup analyses’, PLoS One, 11(4): e0152423. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0152423

2015

Ariel, B., Farrar, W. and Sutherland, A. ‘The effect of police body-worn cameras on use-of-force and citizens’ complaints against the police: a randomized controlled trial’, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 31(3): 509-535. Selected as “2015 must read” article by Springer Editors-in-Chief.

Taylor, A., Boyle, A., Sutherland, A. and Giacomantonio, C. ‘Using ambulance data to reduce community violence: critical literature review’, European Journal of Emergency Medicine, 23(4):248-252. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26629765

Valdebenito, S., Eisner, M., Farrington, D., Ttofi, M., Sutherland, A. School-based interventions for reducing disciplinary school exclusion: Protocol for a systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews.

2009-2014

Brunton-Smith, I., Jackson, J. and Sutherland, A. ‘Bridging Structure and Perception: On the Neighbourhood Ecology of Beliefs and Worries about Violent Crime’, British Journal of Criminology, 54(4): 503-526.

Obsuth, I., Sutherland, A., Nordby, L., Scott, S., Valdebenito, S., Hall, R. and Eisner, M. ‘London Education and Inclusion Project (LEIP): a cluster-randomised controlled trial protocol of an intervention to reduce antisocial behaviour and improve educational/occupational attainment for pupils at risk of school exclusion’, BMC Psychology, 2: 24. (Open Access) doi:10.1186/s40359-014-0024-5 ISRCTN23244695

Sutherland, A., Brunton-Smith, I. and Jackson, J. ‘Collective efficacy, deprivation and violence in London’, British Journal of Criminology, 53(6): 1050-1074.

Brunton-Smith, I., Sutherland, A. and Jackson, J. ‘The role of neighbourhoods in shaping crime and perceptions of crime’, in Maarten van Ham (ed.) Neighbourhood effects or neighbourhood based problems? A policy context. London: Springer.

Sutherland, A. ‘Is parental socio-economic status related to the initiation of substance use by young people in an English city? An event history analysis’, Social Science & Medicine, 74: 1053-1061.

Sutherland, A. ‘The ‘scaled approach’ in youth justice: Fools rush in…’, Youth Justice: An International Journal, 9(1): 44-60.

Baker, K. and Sutherland, A. (eds) Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements and Youth Justice. Bristol: Policy Press.

Peer Reviewed Research Reports

2025 Sutherland, A., Ferreira, E., Shah, M., Rotherham, S., Villa, C., Agar, I., and Ward, E. Precision Stop & Search Pilot Proof of concept evaluation. London: Metropolitan Police Service.

2025 Sutherland, A. and Brennan, I. Statistical Analysis Plan. Another Chance Fund Focused Deterrence programme: a multicentre randomised controlled trial. London: Youth Endowment Fund. ISRCTN11650008.

2023a Cathro, C., Tagliaferri, G. and Sutherland, A. Schools Exclusions and Youth Custody. London: Behavioural Insights Team.

2023b Brennan, I., Simanovic, T., McFarlane, P., Graham, W. and Sutherland, A. Protocol. Focused Deterrence programme: a multicentred randomised controlled trial. London: Youth Endowment Fund. ISRCTN11650008.

2022a Calcraft, P., Thomas, I. and Sutherland, A. User guide: Synthetic data tool Generating low fidelity synthetic data with BIT’s Python tool. London: Behavioural Insights Team.

2022b Calcraft, P., Stuijfzand, B. and Sutherland, A. Levelling up Information Sharing to Tackle Violence. London: The Office for Health Improvement and Disparities. [Confidential]

2022c Sutherland, A., Lawrence, J., Bohling, K., Locke, T., Evans, A., Farrington, J. and Bird, A. Reanalysing education experiments with linked administrative data. London: Behavioural Insights Team.

2022d Chadeesingh, L., Xu, Y., Tagliaferri, G., Malik, R., Holt, M., Bohling, K., Sutherland, A. Prioritising Tutoring Relationships to Improve Pupil Attendance. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2022e Malik, R., Tagliaferri, G., Kelly, S., Holt, M., Chadeesingh, L., Wilkinson, N., Sutherland, A. and Bohling, K. Reminders to Improve Pupil Attendance and Engagement. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2021a Anders, J., Shure, N., Wyse, D., Bohling, K., Sutherland, A., Barnard, M., Frerichs, F. Learning About Culture: Overarching Evaluators’ Report. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2021b Calcraft, P., Thomas, I., Maglicic, M. and Sutherland, A. Accelerating public policy research with synthetic data. London: Behavioural Insights Team.

2021c Sutherland, A., Broeks, M., Ilie, S., Sim, M., Krapels, J., Rosa Brown, E., Belanger, J. Accelerated Reader: Evaluation Report. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2021d Taylor, P., Bohling, K., Broch-Due, I., Jacob, C. and Sutherland, A. A mixed methods evaluation of the Embedding Formative Assessment scale up. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2021e Bohling, K., Shrestha, P., Sutherland, A. Embedding Formative Assessment Mailer Trial: A randomised controlled trial of testimonial versus evidence-based marketing in the adoption of evidence based programmes in schools. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2021f Disley, E., Gkousis, E., Hulme, S., Morley, K. I., Pollard, J., Saunders, C. L., Sussex, J. and Sutherland, A. Outcome Evaluation of the National Model for Liaison and Diversion. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2021.

2021g Disley, E., Gkousis, E., Hulme, S., Morley, K. I., Pollard, J., Saunders, C. L., Sussex, J. and Sutherland, A. Findings from the national evaluation of Liaison and Diversion services in England. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2021h Dimova, S., Culora, A., Brown, E., Ilie, S., Sutherland, A. and Curran, S. Maximising the Impact of Teaching Assistants: Evaluation Report. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2021i Mihaly, K., Opper, I. M., Sutherland, A. and Yang, M. Rerandomisation in the evaluation of education interventions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2020a Gibbons, D. B., Freimann, P., Kolker, E., Collerton, E. and Sutherland, A. Applying behavioural insights to cross-government data sharing. London: Behavioural Insights Team.

2020b Sutherland, A., Brunton-Smith, I., Hutt, O. and Bradford, B. Violent crime in London: trends, trajectories and neighbourhoods. London: College of Policing.

2020c Ling, T., Sutherland, A. and Pollard, J. Better evaluations to support the needs of older people in the UK. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2020d Jarke, H., Broeks, M., Dimova, S., Iakovidou, E., Thompson, G., Illie, S. and Sutherland, A. Evaluation of a Technology-based Intervention for Reading in UK Classroom Settings. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation

2020e Dimova, S., Ilie, S., Brown, E. R., Broeks, M., Culora, A. and Sutherland, A. The Nuffield Early Language Intervention (NELI): Evaluation Report. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2019a Cahill, M., Migacheva, K., Taylor, J., Williams, M., Burnap, P., Javed, A., Liu, H., Lu, H., and Sutherland, A. Understanding Online Hate Speech as a Motivator and Predictor of Hate Crime. Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Justice.

2019b Sutherland, A., Harshfield, A., Shenderovich, Y.,Brown, E., and Broeks, M. Primary Science Quality Mark: Evaluation Protocol. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2019c Shenderovich, Y., Sutherland, A. Mihaly, K., Dimova, S. Aspire to STEM: Study Plan. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2019d Picken, N., Baker, K., d’Angelo, C., Fays, C. and Sutherland, A. Process Evaluation of AssetPlus. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. (Annexes)

2019e Nightingale, M., Prideaux, R., Hofman, J., Koch, N. and Sutherland, A. Wellbeing Premium randomised controlled trial for Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises: recruitment evaluation report. Understanding factors influencing firms’ recruitment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2019f Sutherland, A., Broeks, M., Shenderovich, Y. and Obsuth, I. Engage in Education Long term follow-up of exclusions and attainment from a high-risk sample of pupils in the London education and inclusion project. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

2019g Sutherland, A. Broeks, M., Sim, M., Brown, E., Iakovidou, E. Illie, S., Jarke, H. and Belanger, J. Digital Feedback in Primary Maths: Evaluation Report. London: Education Endowment Foundation. ISRCTN50447665

2019h Leach, B., Gloinson, E., Sutherland, A. and Whitmore, M. Reviewing the Evidence Base for De-escalation Training: A Rapid Evidence Assessment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2018a Hofman, J. and Sutherland, A. (Eds.) Evaluating interventions that prevent or counter violent extremism: A practical guide. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2018b Sutherland, A., Prideaux, P., Belanger, J., Broeks, M., Shenderovich, Y., Van Der Staaij, S. Motivating teachers with incentivised pay and coaching: Understanding factors influencing participant recruitment failure. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2018c Sutherland, A. and Ilie, S. Accelerated Reader cluster-randomised controlled trial: statistical analysis plan. London: Education Endowment Foundation. ISRCTN17400885

2018d Strang, L, Baker, G., Pollard, J., Hofman, J., Taylor, J., Faraji, S-J., Dimova, S. and Sutherland, A. Violent and Antisocial Behaviour at Football Events: A rapid evidence assessment and a review of interventions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2018e Sutherland, A. Belanger, J., Broeks., Ilie, S., Vignoles, A. Protocol: Maximising the impact of teaching assistants (MITA): a randomised-controlled field trial. London: Education Endowment Foundation. ISRCTN21056851

2018f Belanger, J., Sutherland, A. and van Belle, J. Protocol: Digital feedback in primary maths: a randomised controlled trial. London: Education Endowment Foundation. ISRCTN50447665

2017a Sutherland, A., Disley, E., Cattell, J. and Bauchowitz, S. Analysis of Trends in First Time Entrants to the Youth Justice System. London: Ministry of Justice.

2017b Sutherland, A., Strang, L., Stepanek, M., Giacomantonio, C. and Boyle, A. Using ambulance data for violence prevention: technical report. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2017c Sutherland, A., Strang, L., Stepanek, M., Giacomantonio, C. and Boyle, A. Using ambulance data for violence prevention: A guide for police, public health and violence prevention partnerships. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2017d Sutherland, A., Belanger, J., Ilie, S., Sim, M., Krapels, J., Broeks, M. and Vignoles, A. Protocol: A cluster-randomised controlled trial of the Accelerated Reader literacy programme for primary school pupils. London: Education Endowment Foundation. ISRCTN17400885

2016a Sutherland, A., Belanger, J., Mihaly, K., Krapels, J., Prideaux, R. Protocol: The effect of incentive payments for teachers on pupil attainment: a randomised controlled trial. London: Education Endowment Foundation. ISRCTN12967252 (Trial cancelled)

2016b Sutherland, A. and Brunton-Smith, I. Evaluation of Sentencing Council Guidelines: Theft offences final report. London: Office of the Sentencing Council.

2016c Davies, M., Brunton-Smith, I. Sanchez, J. P. and Sutherland, A. Evaluation of Sentencing Council Guidelines: Drug offences final report. London: Office of the Sentencing Council.

2016d Sutherland, A. Briefing note: effect of LASPO on sentencing severity for possession offences. London: Office of the Sentencing Council.

2016e Sutherland, A. Davies, M., Brunton-Smith, I. Herrea, F. Evaluation of Sentencing Council Guidelines: Additional drugs report. London: Office of the Sentencing Council.

2016f Saunders, K., Brunton-Smith, I., Garrod, B., Stepanek, M., Vignoles, A. and Sutherland, A. Missing Key Stage 2 data in LSYPE2: technical report. London: Department for Education.

2016g Saunders, K., Garrod, B. and Sutherland, A. Missing Key Stage 2 data in LSYPE2: user guide. London: Department for Education.

2016h Giacomantonio, C., Jonathan-Zamir, T., Limanovitz, Y., Bradford, B., Davies, M., Strang, L. and Sutherland, A. College of Policing Stop and Search Training Experiment: Process Evaluation. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2016i Rubin, J., Taylor, J., Krapels, J., Sutherland, A., Felician, M., Davis, L. and Rohr, C. Are better health outcomes related to social expenditure? A cross-national empirical analysis of social expenditure and population health measures. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

2015a Ludlow, A., Schmidt, B., Akoensi, T., Liebling, A., Giacomantonio, C. and Sutherland, A. Self-inflicted Deaths in NOMS' Custody Amongst 18–24 Year Olds: Staff Experience, Knowledge and Views. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. (Published as part of the Harris Review into deaths in custody)

2015b Sutherland, A., Ilie, S. and Vignoles, A. Factors associated with achievement: Key stage 2 report. London: UK Department for Education. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/factors-associated-with-achievement-key-stages-2-and-4

2015c Sutherland, A., Ilie, S. and Vignoles, A. Factors associated with achievement: Key stage 4. London: UK Department for Education. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/factors-associated-with-achievement-key-stages-2-and-4

2014 Giacomantonio, C., Sutherland, A., Boyle, A., Shepherd, J., Kruithof, K. and Davies, M. (2014) Injury surveillance: using A&E data for crime reduction. Guidance for police analysts and practitioners. London: College of Policing.

2008 Sutherland, A. and Jones, S. MAPPA and Youth Justice: An Exploration of Youth Offending Team engagement with Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements. London: Youth Justice Board.

2007a Sutherland, A., Taylor, E., Gray, E., Merrington, S. and Roberts, C. Piloting 12-month ISSP – Evaluation and research findings. London: Youth Justice Board.

2007b Cooper, K., Sutherland, A. and Roberts, C. Keeping Young People Engaged (KYPE): The Final Report. London: Youth Justice Board.

2006a Sutherland, A. et al. The Role of Risk and Protective Factors. London: Youth Justice Board.

2006b Sutherland, A., Baker, K. and Merrington, S. Youth Rehabilitation Order: an exploration of practice in four YOTs prior to revisions to National Standards. London: Youth Justice Board (Confidential).

2004 Moore, R. (et al.) ISSP: the initial report. London: Youth Justice Board.

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