Project Overview
Project Overview
Preparing Emergency Services for Operations in a Climate Challenged World
Preparing Emergency Services for Operations in a Climate Challenged World
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About this Project
About this Project
Preparing Emergency Services for Operations in a Climate-Challenged World was a 12 month research project beginning in 2020 that focused on a research question that the BNHCRC and member agencies were seeking to address:
“How can fire and emergency service agencies develop and use forward-looking (and linked) climate and social change scenarios to best prepare their businesses so that they can continue to provide effective services in a climate-challenged world?”
Reos Partners, in collaboration with RMIT University, lead the design and facilitation of this important project that brought together a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australian and New Zealand emergency management services (EMS) to construct a series of plausible futures. The ultimate aim of this project is for the EMS (and the organisations within it) to apply these scenarios, separately and perhaps together, to examine their current thinking, challenge existing assumptions, perceptions, planning, operations and cultures (of how we can collectively achieve our missions of creating safety and resilience in a climate challenged world).
Project Summary
Project Summary
EMS agencies are learning to adapt and be prepared for futures where the changing climate will influence the services they deliver, and how they deliver those services. This research project was designed to help the sector to better prepare for these futures and take action to more quickly adapt as it unfolds, and importantly take action to shape the future in ways that significantly reduce the risks of the hazards ahead.
In 2020 and 2021 this research project, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and lead by Reos Partners and RMIT University, collaborated with a select group of leaders and professionals (a scenario team) from across the Australia and New Zealand EMS. The research project was completed in three integrated parts:
A synthesis of the literature conducted by RMIT on the implications of climate change for emergency services operations;
A series of participatory workshops with the project scenario team to develop an explorative and adaptable methodology that is then used to create transformative scenarios (2021-2035);
Develop EMS guidance for using transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world for planning and decision-making in EMS.
By involving key people from across the EMS in the construction and application of the scenarios, this project has helped to build the sector’s capabilities in scenario development and in scenario use and application. The project has not only strengthened the scenario thinking capability of the participants across a range of agencies, we now have buy-in and support from a team of people that can continue to apply the project methods across the EMS.
The literature review, scenario methodology, transformative scenarios, worked examples and associated EMS use guide are available through CRC’s Online Tools page.
Project Stages
Project Stages
Literature Review
Literature Review
July 2020 to June 2021
This wide-ranging synthesis of key literature will bring together an array of resources relevant to the potential impact(s) of climate change on emergency services agency operations and their context. The review will draw on existing major reviews and relevant inquiries and cutting edge academic literature about climate change and adaptation.
Scenario Method
Scenario Method
November 2020 to April 2021
We propose to develop this method (and the scenarios) using a Transformative Scenario Planning Process (TSP). As the name suggests, a TSP is an agile and adaptable approach that is explorative rather than predictive. It is a robust and well-tested method to enable people to develop scenarios that are relevant, plausible, challenging and clear.
Scenario Use Guidance
Scenario Use Guidance
May to June 2021
The Sceanrio Use Guidence phase of the project will help to build participant understandings of how to create scenarios and develop their capabilities in using the sceanrios developed. The workshops in this phase will help inform strategic and operational planning and capability development in participating emergency service agencies.
Project Timeline of Events and Stages
Project Timeline of Events and Stages
The event track below shows the project stages and progression of synchronous workshops within those stages. The many hours of asynchronous work that happened in working groups and writing teams between the workshops is also captured.
Project Event Track.pdfIntroducing the Project Team
Introducing the Project Team
The research project was facilitated and guided by Reos Partners, who have deep experience in applying the Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) process both in Australia and around the world as well as teaching TSP in business schools. The Reos team collaborated closely with RMIT who providing key research support for the Scenario Team and the project. ts and Stages
Our Project Team
Reos Partners
Steve Atkinson (Scenario methodology lead) - Reos Partners
Geoff Brown (Lead facilitation) - Reos Partners
Zoe Fitzgerald (Support facilitation) - Reos Partners
Russell Fisher (Strategy and Scenario Use Guidance) - Reos Partners
Simon Kneebone (Illustrator and Cartoonist)
RMIT University
Assoc Prof Lauren Rickards (Project manage the Literature Review) - RMIT
Dr Adriana Keating (Expert reviewer) - RMIT
Process design and project content experts
Adam Kahane (Reos Partners – Cambridge Office): Scenario process advisor
Prof John Handmer (RMIT): Expert reviewer
Introducing the Scenario Team
Introducing the Scenario Team
The project Scenario Team worked together, online, over a period of 9 months. During the final workshop, Darrin Woods (Fire & Emergency NZ) offered the Māori Whakataukī (or proverb) that epitomises the way this team worked together:
Ko tō koutou rourou, ko tōku rourou, ka ora tātou katoa
Ko tō koutou rourou, ko tōku rourou, ka ora tātou katoa
With your basket of knowledge and my basket of knowledge (shared) we will all prosper
Peter Ashton Surf Coast Shire
Lissa Arcoverde Department for Environment and Water
Clare Bailey Western Australia State Emergency Service
Karyn Bosomworth Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation
Nerida Buckley Resilience NSW
Mark Charteris Northern Territory Police, Fire & Emergency Services
Matthew Chesnais Queensland Fire & Emergency Services
Liz Connell South Australian State Emergency Service
Neil Cooper ACT Parks & Conservation Service
Jamie Devenish Victoria State Emergency Service
Matthew Dyer Queensland Fire & Emergency Services
Graham Green Department for Environment & Water
Sarah Harris Country Fire Authority
James Haig Queensland Fire & Emergency Services
Melinda Hillery Climate Change & Sustainability Division:Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
Chris Irvine Tasmania State Emergency Service
Brenton Keen South Australian Fire & Emergency Services Commission
Nicholas Kuster NSW State Emergency Service
Valentino Luna Hernandez Fire & Emergency New Zealand
Peter Mason Queensland Fire & Emergency Services
Andrew McConnon Tasmania Fire Service
Melissa O'Halloran New South Wales Rural Fire Service
Luke Purcell Australasian Fire & Emergency Service Authorities Council
John Richardson Australian Red Cross
Ruth Ryan HPV Plantations
Zoe Sadiq Department of Planning, Industry and Environment
Katelyn Samson Australian Institute of Disaster Resilience
Alen Slijepcevic Country Fire Authority
Robyn Smith NSW Environment Protection Authority
Naomi Stevens NSW National Parks
Bridget Tehan Victorian Council of Social Service
Blair Trewin Bureau of Meteorology
Darrin Woods Fire & Emergency New Zealand
Mike Wouters Department for Environment & Water
Scenario Methodology
Scenario Methodology
Refer to the Methodology Page for a high level overview of the methodology that was applied and developed through this research project.
A scenario is a story about what could happen: an internally-consistent hypothesis about the future that is relevant, challenging, plausible, and clear. It is not a story about what will happen (a forecast or prediction) and not a story about what should happen (a vision or proposal or plan). Scenarios are a tool for communicating about and working with an unpredictable future.
Scenario Planning is a well-established methodology for generating and testing strategic options in an unpredictable contextual environment (see Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation by Kees van der Heijden). Specifically, customized scenarios can be used to stress test the Ford Foundation’s existing global strategy the same way a wind tunnel can be used to stress test an airplane design.
A Transformative Scenarios Process (TSP) employs scenario planning not only to adapt to an unpredictable future but to influence or transform the future; this methodology was invented in South Africa during the transition away from apartheid and since then has been employed in many contexts around the world, primarily in the Global South, by diverse multi-stakeholder teams (see Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane).
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