Lead: RMIT University
Assoc Prof Lauren Rickards (Project manage the Literature Review) - RMIT
Dr Adriana Keating (Expert reviewer) - RMIT
The literature review was an evolving document throughout the scenario development process and was periodically reviewed in response to suggestions from the interviewees and the emerging needs of the scenario team. A working draft version of the literature review was provided early in the project to provide the project its guiding parameters with further development and tailoring so that emerging issues identified through the scenario development process could be incorporated. While not in the original research plan, RMIT researchers provided several briefs on pertinent aspects of the literature to the Scenario Team at key points in the process.
November 2020
This early draft was written to assist the Scenario Team to identify and then prioritise the driving forces in the contextual envrionment outside of fire and emergency services. These driving forces became the building blocks for the scenarios.
March 2021
This later draft incorporated further research to help the scenario team with scenario development and writing.
June 2021
RMIT researchers undertook a desk-based review of both peer reviewed and grey literature to produce a synthesis of the literature on the implications of climate change for emergency services operations. The review draws on a wide range of literature relevant to the challenges for the sector, including cutting edge insights about climate change and adaptation.
RMIT researchers provided several briefs on pertinent aspects of the literature to the Scenario Team at key points in the process. Three of these briefs and models have become a central part of scenario development ad have informed the final approach to scenario use and application:
Climate Scenarios Brief
Climate Hazard Event Map - Refer to the Scenario Use page for more details on practical application of this product.
Adaptive Capacity Determinants - Refer to the Scenario Use page for more details on practical application of this product.
This brief outlines how climate comes into play in the scenario construction process. The impacts of a changing climate on extreme weather events, longer-term trends, and flow-on effects across society and ecosystems, are critical elements to consider when developing scenario narratives.
The hazard events on this map is presented as a heuristic tool. They broadly reflect the projections outlined in the literature review, but should not be considered predictive.
It is proposed that the hazard event map is an “overlay” to all scenarios. In this way it is possible to explore the same hazard events in different scenarios, where each scenario represents different situations in terms of level and character of adaptive capacity/vulnerability. This approach highlights that not only do climatic hazards generate impacts, but so too do the non-climatic situations that we often have more control over. That is, the same hazard events present different risks in different scenarios because of differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity.
Each scenario represents different levels and forms of adaptive capacity and each can be interpreted in terms of the five domains of adaptive capacity introduced in the literature review: assets, flexibility, social organisation, learning and agency.
Although the scenarios were developed in a bottom-up manner by the project participants, they broadly align with known determinants of adaptive capacity. Thus despite using a novel process, the scenarios ultimately reinforce the fact that both strategic, long-term governance and high levels of social cohesion are important for effective climate change adaptation.