Saturday, October 14, 2023 | 8am - 2pm
Researchers will present and discuss early results and recent working papers on social protection research, including graduation approach adaptations, cash transfers, labor market programs, and more.
All presenters will have 15 minutes to present and 10 minutes for questions.
Click the down arrow to view abstracts.
Panels and schedule are subject to change leading up to the conference. All presentations are in-person; there are no virtual sessions.
Agenda
8am-8:45am | Breakfast | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2110
8:45-9am | Introductions | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2110
Julie Kedroske
9:00am-10:30am | Graduation Adaptations: Mental Health & Group Coaching | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2110
Abstract: We study the relationship between mental health and economic productivity in Ghana using a randomized controlled trial of 7,800 households. Households either received cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), a graduation program, CBT followed by a graduation program, or nothing. The CBT program led to short-term reductions in depression, and improved socioemotional skills. We find some evidence that both the CBT program and graduation program improved economic outcomes, but do not find evidence of complementarities. The CBT program led to individuals increasing their per capita consumption, and the graduation programs to increased wealth, concentrated in increased livestock ownership. We find some evidence suggesting that program gains were larger for individuals with larger baseline wealth.
Lasse Brune, "More But Not Better? Adding Group Therapy to a Graduation Program in Uganda"
Abstract: The graduation approach has shown promise in sustainably increasing target recipients' consumption and income in a number of countries. We test the approach in a refugee population in Uganda and contrast results with those from a parallel implementation in surrounding host communities. Relative to eligible households in control villages, program participants, who receive one year of consumption support, increase economic activity and see strong improvements in well-being as measured in the beginning of year two, shortly after a $300 cash asset transfer, and after the end of the two-year program. Effects are notably larger in host communities, who are on average better-off even in the absence of the program. The difference in effects can be explained in part by results from subgroup analysis that shows that effects are stronger among better-off households. However, taking into account differences across a large set of baseline characteristics does not eliminate the host-refugee gap, suggesting that potentially the more limited opportunities for economic expansion (land availability for farming and livestock rearing, market access) restrict the program’s effectiveness among refugees.
Emily Beam, "Improving Scalability through Group Coaching: Evidence from Uganda and the Philippines"
Abstract: Multifaceted social protection programs, in particular "Graduation"-style programs with asset transfers and coaching, generate sizable welfare improvements, but their scale is often limited. Two key barriers to scaling are costs and the complexity of implementation. Individualized coaching—a hallmark of many Graduation programs—is one of the largest cost components and is challenging to organize effectively. We examine results from two programs, one in Uganda and one in the Philippines, in which we randomized the coaching component to be delivered during individual household visits or group meetings. While group coaching could benefit from increased information sharing among group members and improved social connections, it might reduce individualized coaching attention and accountability or inhibit some participants' willingness to discuss their problems. We find that both program structures increase economic activity and economic and subjective well-being relative to a control group. Importantly, we find no differences in impact between the individual and group coaching approaches on average or within machine-learning-generated subgroups based on baseline characteristics. Our results demonstrate that group coaching is more cost-effective and easier to organize relative to individual coaching and that it does not jeopardize program impacts.
9:00am-9:30am | Social Protection: Climate & Environment | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2120
Jonathan Bauchet, "Support, Don’t Coerce: Impacts of Unconditional Payments for Ecosystem Services"
Abstract: Do rural people in the Global South need to be coerced to take care of the environment, or will they do it on their own with support from conservation programs? The dominant approach says they need strong stipulations. Best exemplified in Payments for Environmental Services (PES), the approach consists of paying landowners for conserving natural resources, conditional on landowners’ meeting program obligations. Conditionality is viewed as the “defining principle” of PES, assumed to be necessary to spur the adoption of new behaviors and redress cheating. But critics demur at the approach. Imposing conditions, they argue, entails high monitoring and enforcement costs, restricts the participation of disadvantaged households, sparks feelings of unfairness, embodies a paternalistic conservation paradigm, and fails to acknowledge that owners of natural resources have intrinsic motivations to conserve irrespective of payment. Using a randomized controlled trial in rural Bolivia (2016-2021), we tested the merits of the two approaches. In 34 communities, material resources (e.g., barbwire) were given to households to conserve the environment – provided households verifiably kept animals away from streams and abstained from deforesting. In another 34 communities the same resources were given to households, but without strings attached and with a gentle reminder about the importance of conservation. We found evidence that supports the blending of both conditional and unconditional approaches. Contra proponents of conditionality, removing conditions did not increase cheating and decrease ecosystem services produced. Contra critics of conditionality, removing conditions did not increase the number of participants, lower economic inequality, or reduce feelings of unfairness. In sum, the results suggest that unconditional payments could produce the same amount of environmental benefits while reducing costs.
9:30am-10am | Social Protection: Audits | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2120
Abstract: We employ an at-scale randomized experiment to evaluate how one of the world's largest citizen-led monitoring efforts, India's ``social audits'' initiative, impacted corruption and access to social protection in one of India's poorest states. Combining administrative data on program expenditures with survey data, we document that both elected and appointed village leaders engage in corruption and corruption is gendered, with a higher burden of corruption for women. Further, the nature of corruption varies across two distinct schemes linked to India's workfare program. Submitting names of villagers who did not work was the main form of leakage in the public works scheme, whereas kickbacks dominated in the national housing scheme, which provides a conditional cash transfer for home construction. Audits reduced corruption in both programs, with differing implications for participants by program. Reduced corruption in public works was accompanied by lower levels of implementation and therefore less access -- survey data show the share of citizens participating reduced by more than 50% in audited communities. Conditional on participating, amounts received by citizens did not change. In contrast, audits reduced kickbacks paid to local leaders under the national housing program by 28% and as a result income retained by participants increased by 7%.
9:00am-9:30am | Cash Transfers: Adolescent Development | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2120
Abhilasha Sahay, "Long-Term Impacts of Short Exposure to Conditional Cash Transfers in Adolescence: Evidence from the Philippines"
Abstract: This paper evaluates long-term impacts of the national conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in the Philippines on beneficiaries who were exposed to it during a relatively short but critical period of their life: about 1.5 years during transitioning from adolescence to adulthood. We experimentally estimate impacts of Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program on men and women who were enrolled in the program when they were aged between 12.5 and 14 and are currently in their early twenties. We find evidence of impacts on marriage and fertility for women (but not for men): participation in the program delays marriage and the first birth by approximately one year and six months, respectively. However, we do not find impacts on educational, labor market outcomes and proxies of economic welfare. Our results suggest that even short-term exposure to CCT programs can move the needle on critical life outcomes such as marriage and fertility; however, to realize their full potential in improving human development outcomes a longer period of receiving benefits may be needed.
10:30am-11am | Break
11am-12pm | Graduation: Gender and Women's Economic Empowerment | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2110
Tara Bedi, "Gender Targeting and Household Cooperation: Experimental Evidence from a Multifaceted Anti-poverty Program in Malawi"
Abstract: We examine the role of gender targeting, and couples training on economic cooperation, within the context of a Multifaceted Anti-poverty Program for the Ultra Poor in Malawi. We randomized at both the village and household levels, and within the treatment group, we randomized into three treatments: female spouse recipient, male spouse recipient and female spouse recipient plus couples training. After 17 months, the gender of the recipient does not affect overall household or spousal consumption or the total, or spouse specific, ownership of assets, suggesting the presence of income pooling and complete risk sharing. Female targeting, compared with male targeting, did not lead to improvements in children’s outcomes, nor female spouse’s mental well-being, and while female targeting led to empowerment gains in the short run, these were short lived. Male targeting shifted the economic focus of the household towards agricultural activities. Finally, participation in training on spousal economic cooperation and gender empowerment for female targeted households affected the nature of investments made by the household (towards agriculture, suggesting a drift towards male domains/preferences), but nonetheless, led to a Pareto improvement with improved household income and business income, driven by higher female business income, increased female spouse’s likelihood of owning livestock and improved male livestock ownership value. At 17 months gender training improved female economic agency, male mental health and couples are more likely to stay together.
Kehinde Ajayi, "Effects of the Nigeria National Social Safety Nets Program Livelihood Pilot"
Abstract: This study presents new evidence on the gendered effects of social safety net programs, in the context of the National Social Safety Nets Project (NASSP), a flagship program of the Nigerian government. The program has three components: 1) a basic unconditional cash transfer, 2) a top-up conditional cash transfer with behavioral change training, and 3) a livelihood support component comprising life skills and business skills training complemented by a lump sum productive grant. This study evaluates the impact of receiving Package 2 (components 1 and 2), or Package 3 (components 1, 2, and 3) relative to receiving Package 1 (component 1 alone). This evaluation provides new evidence on scalable strategies to implement targeted government-led cash transfers and sustainable support for graduation out of poverty. It especially furthers our understanding of the impacts of livelihoods interventions on intrahousehold gender dynamics and women’s economic empowerment and wellbeing.
Within the subset of NASSP livelihood households (receiving Package 3), the following additional interventions are tested: 1) default selection of an eligible female household member to receive the livelihood support component compared to allowing households to select an eligible beneficiary by themselves; and 2) providing a household gender sensitization that encourages gender equality and household collaboration and cohesion compared to no sensitization. The gender sensitization includes a 2.5 hour visit to the household led by a trained facilitator where adult members of the household come together to discuss gender roles, watch a video of positive examples of intra-household collaboration and economic empowerment of women in their community, and discuss the skills and strengths of each household member aged 18-45 years.
The study draws on data from a random sample of almost 8,000 NASSP participant households from 460 communities in six states from each geopolitical zone in the country.
11am-11:30am | Labor Market Programs: Skills Training | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2120
Paul Gertler, "Making Entrepreneurs: The Return to Training Youth in Hard versus Soft Business Skills "
Abstract: To assess whether successful entrepreneurs can be made, we designed and implemented an innovative full-time, in residence, 3-week mini-MBA program modeled after western business school curricula, adapted to the Ugandan context called Skills for Effective Entrepreneurship Development (SEED). It was implemented as an at-scale RCT featuring a nationally representative sample of graduating secondary school students. Study participants were surveyed at baseline, and four (medium run) and nine (long run) years after training to assess program impacts.
SEED targets youth at the end of secondary school before youth begin their working lives. This phase represents a unique period to shape their futures and set them on higher trajectories of lifetime productivity. From adolescence to early- to mid-20s, high-level executive and social processes necessary for emotion regulation, working memory, inhibitory control, abstract thought, decision making, perspective taking, and interpersonal communication undergo substantial development.
Immediately after the intervention and 4 years later, the treatment group yielded significant higher accrual of hard and soft skills, validating the intent of the training. SEED was also effective in jump-starting business creation. Four years after training, SEED graduates were more likely to start businesses and to own active businesses. Enterprises owned by those in the treatment groups were also more likely to be formal (that is, registered and paying taxes), to have employees, and those business were larger and more profitable.
Five years later (nine years after treatment), enterprise ownership doubled from 27% to 58% in the control group, closing the gap between assignment groups. However, important differences in terms of business quality remain, consistent with the medium run findings. After nine years, businesses in the treatment group were more likely to be formal, to have paid employees, and were larger, and more profitable.
12pm-1pm | Lunch | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2110
1pm-1:30pm | Cash Transfers: Nutrition Outcomes | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2110
Suman Chakrabarti, "Nutrition Benefits of the World’s Largest Perinatal Cash Transfer Program: India’s Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana"
Abstract: Low utilization of primary and preventive healthcare during pregnancy and early childhood is a significant determinant of suboptimal maternal and child health outcomes, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). To address this issue, Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs have been implemented, which provide cash to low-income households upon fulfilling specific conditions. One such program, the Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), was introduced nationally in India in 2017, targeting pregnant and lactating women.
Data and Methods: This study used data from three rounds of India’s National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) conducted in 2005–06, 2015–16, and 2019–21. The analysis focused on children under five years, comparing pre- and post-intervention periods to assess the impact of PMMVY. Addressing the non-randomized nature of PMMVY receipt, the study uses the Triple Difference (TD) estimation strategy, considering firstborn children as the primary beneficiaries of the program.
Results: The study found that PMMVY coverage has increased over time, reaching 63% of eligible beneficiaries in 2019–20. Among firstborn children, exposure to PMMVY was associated with improvements in weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores. Program's conditionalities, including pregnancy registration, antenatal care, and immunizations, were positively associated with PMMVY beneficiaries. Additionally, higher program expenditure was linked to improvements in child anthropometric outcomes. Program benefit-cost ratio shows a $1.38 return on every dollar spent in the short run.
Interpretation: The findings suggest PMMVY could strengthen child nutrition in India. PMMVY conditions promoted prenatal and postnatal healthcare. The economic analysis showed that PMMVY was cost-effective and provided significant health benefits. These findings can help LMIC policymakers implement similar perinatal CCT program.
1pm-1:30pm | Cash Transfers: Payment Modalities | Kellogg Global Hub Room 2120
Michael Findley, "Can Digital Aid Deliver in Humanitarian Crises?"
Abstract: Hunger levels have reached new records in each of the last three years, with over 345 million people expected to face extreme food insecurity in 2023. Moreover, these trends are likely to accelerate due to overlapping crises, including climate change, armed conflict, and macroeconomic shocks. At the same time, aid budgets are failing to keep pace, falling 40% in relative terms from USD 85 per person in 2018 to USD 51 per person in 2021 (FSIN, 2023). More cost-effective aid delivery is therefore necessary, especially in fragile environments where hunger is increasingly concentrated and where oppressive governments can impede humanitarian efforts. Digital cash-based transfers are especially promising, yet the evidence base from these environments remains limited. We show digital transfers alleviate humanitarian needs for an oppressed and vulnerable group – Afghan women – in an extremely challenging context. We report results from a randomized evaluation of an aid program providing very poor female-headed households in Afghanistan with digital transfers of 4000 AFN (appx. 45 USD) every two weeks for two months. In the first 8 weeks, 98% of the total value transferred was exchanged digitally for goods from local merchants, leading to fewer skipped meals, greater nutritional diversity, and substantial improvements in mental well-being. A conservative estimate of cost of delivery (6.7 cents per dollar) is less than 40% of the World Food Program’s global figure for providing cash-based humanitarian aid. Moreover, despite rigorous checks, we find no evidence of diversion by local authorities. Experts underestimated the capacity of beneficiaries to use digital transfers effectively and overestimated the likelihood of diversion. Our results highlight the potential for digital payments to improve the delivery of humanitarian assistance in fragile settings.
2:15pm | Optional Disc Golf | Margreth Reiner Park
Meet outside the front entrance of Kellogg Global Hub