Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails

Project Synopsis (Inactive)

Under global warming, changes in extreme warm and cold temperatures will be manifested in more complex ways in regions with non-Gaussian temperature distribution tails than if the distributions were Gaussian. For example, if a location exhibits a shorter-than-Gaussian warm tail, under a uniform warm shift to the distribution, the simplest prototype of future warming, that location will experience a greater increase in the number of days exceeding a fixed extreme warm temperature threshold than if the distribution were Gaussian. The opposite is true for long warm tails. Similarly, a short cold tail would lead to a more rapid decrease in extreme cold days. Non-Gaussian tails are common throughout the world and carry major implications for how extreme temperatures will change under global warming. This project aims to understand these departures from Gaussian, their implications for future climate change, and their driving climatological mechanisms.

Personnel 

Paul Loikith (PI, PSU), J. David Neelin (Co-I, UCLA).

Publications

Bekris, Y., P. C. Loikith, and J. David Neelin, 2023: Short warm distribution tails accelerate the increase of humid-heat extremes under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102164. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102164

Catalano, A., J., P. C. Loikith, J. D. Neelin, 2021: Diagnosing non-Gaussian temperature distribution tails using back-trajectory analysis. J. Geophys. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033726.

Catalano, A., P. C. Loikith, and J. D. Neelin, 2020: Evaluating CMIP6 Fidelity at Simulating Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails. Environ. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8cd0. ERL Link

Loikith, P. C., and J. David Neelin, 2019: Non-Gaussian Cold-Side Temperature Distribution Tails and Associated Synoptic Meteorology. J. Climate, 32, 8399-8414. AMS Link PDX Scholar Link

Loikith, P. C., J. David Neelin, J. Meyerson, and J. S. Hunter, 2018: Short warm-side temperature distribution tails drive hotspots of warm temperature extreme increases under near-future warming. J. Climate, 31, 9469-9487. AMS Link PDX Scholar Link

Loikith, P. C., and J. D. Neelin, 2015:  Short-tailed Temperature Distributions Over North America and Implications for Future Changes in Extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 8577-8585. AGU Link 

Presentations with Published Abstracts

Implications of Non-Gaussian Wet-Bulb Temperature Distribution Tails Under Projections of Future Warming. Yianna Bekris, Paul C. Loikith, and J. David Neelin. Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, New Orleans, LA. (poster) December 2021.    

Evaluating CMIP6 Model Fidelity at Simulating Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails. Arielle Catalano, Paul Loikith, and J. David Neelin. European Geophysical Union General Assembly Virtual Meeting, (poster), May 2020 .

Non-Gaussian Cold Side Temperature Distribution Tails: Meteorological Mechanisms and Impacts on Extreme Cold Exceedances under Warming. Paul C. Loikith and J. David Neelin. American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ (talk), January, 2019. 

Non-Gaussian Cold Side Temperature Distribution Tails in Observations and Climate Models. Paul Loikith and J. David Neelin. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, Washington, DC (talk), December 2018. 

Investigating the Influence of Non-Gaussian Short Cold Tails on Future Model Projections of Cold Extremes. Paul Loikith, Jacob Hunter, J. David Neelin, and Joyce Meyerson. 8th GEWEX Open Science Conference: Extremes and Water on the Edge, Canmore, Alberta, Canada (talk), May 2018. 

Can Greater-than-Gaussian Increases in Extreme Warm Temperature Threshold Exceedances in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Tails be Detected in the Observational Record? Jacob Hunter, Paul Loikith, and J. David Neelin. 8th GEWEX Open Science Conference: Extremes and Water on the Edge, Canmore, Alberta, Canada (poster), May 2018. 

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails. Paul Loikith, J. David Neelin, and Joyce Meyerson. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana (poster), December 2017. 

Investigating the Influence of Non-Gaussian Temperature Distribution Tails on Future Changes in Extreme Warm Threshold Exceedances. Paul Loikith and J. David Neelin. American Meteorological Society Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Baltimore, MD (talk), July 2017. 

Assessing the effects of non-Gaussian tails on increases in temperature exceedances under global warming using climate models.  Paul C. Loikith and J. David Neelin, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA (talk), December 2016.  

The Effect of Non-Gaussian Temperature Probability Distribution Tails on Future changes in Extreme Temperatures.  Paul C. Loikith and J. David Neelin, Association      of American Geographers National Meeting, San Francisco, CA (poster), April 2016.   

Short-tailed Temperature Distributions over North America and Implications for Future Changes in Extremes.  Paul C. Loikith and J. David Neelin, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA (invited talk), December 2014.