Research

PUBLICATIONS

"Effective Machine Learning Estimates of Stock Market Returns Using Taylor-Rule Inputs" (with Austin Murphy and Yazan Roumani), Economics Letters, 2025.

"The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks in Oil- and Non-Oil-Producing States" (with Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju), Energy Economics, 2025.

"An Investigation into the Causes of Stock Market Return Deviations from Real Earnings Yields" (with Austin Murphy and Ioannis Souropanis), International Review of Economics & Finance, 2025.

"Oil news shocks and the US stock market." (with Ana María Herrera, and Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju). Energy Economics (2023): 106891.

"Relationships between Stock Returns and Real Earnings Yields over the Last 150 Years." (with Austin Murphy), Finance Research Letters (2023): 104243.

"The Effectiveness of Ex-Ante Real Earnings Yields in Forecasting Stock Market Returns". (with Austin Murphy), Journal of Portfolio Management. 10, 2023

"The Continued Forecasting Effectiveness of a Real Earnings Model of the Equity Premium." (with Austin Murphy), The Journal of Investing,  2023.

"Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market." Empirical Economics, pp. 1-33, 2023.

“Oil price shocks and US unemployment rate: a robustness check”, Applied Economics Letters,1-8, July 2022.

"Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?" Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, July 2020.

“Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?” (with Mohamad Karaki), Oxford Bulletin of Economics anded Statistics, 81(2), 250-270, 2019. (Appendix)

“Oil Price Uncertainty and the U.S. Stock Market: Analysis Based on a GARCH-in-Mean VAR Model”, Energy Economics, Vol. 59, 251-260, September 2016.

“Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stock Market: Do Sign and Size Matter?” (with Ana Maria Herrera), The Energy Journal, Vol. 36, No. 3, 171-188, July 2015. (Appendix)

MANUSCRIPTS UNDER REVIEW

The Determinants of the Time-Varying Equity Premium (with Austin Murphy)

Oil News Shocks and U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Spending

Conditional Peso Effects for the U.S. Dollar (with Austin Murphy and Yazan Roumani)

WORK IN PROGRESS

Oil News Shocks and U.S. Consumer Behavior: Sensitivity to Monthly Proxy Construction

Monetary Policy Shocks and the U.S. Labor Market (with Sandeep Kumar Rangaraju)