FEREA 2024

Voter Preferences for Young and Female Candidates: Comparing Conjoint Experiments with Real-World Behavior

Charles McClean

Political scientists have examined which characteristics of electoral candidates are preferred by voters, commonly using conjoint survey designs where candidates' characteristics are randomized. In these experimental studies, survey respondents tend to prefer young and female hypothetical candidates. However, young and female candidates are substantially less likely to hold political offices. In this study, we focus on the case of Japan, where gender and age disparities among politicians are large, to disentangle the reasons for the discrepancy between experimental evidence and real-world elections. Employing a conjoint survey experiment conducted immediately after the July 2022 Upper House elections, we compare respondents' choices in the experiment with their self-reported voting behavior in the actual election. Our analysis reveals that while voting in the actual election aligns with preferences on most candidate characteristics shown in the experiment, real-world incumbent candidates have a much greater advantage than the conjoint estimate suggests. This implies that gender and age disparities among politicians persist because voters have a strong preference for incumbents, even though they are predominantly male and older.

Discussant: Alastair Smith

Patriotism as the State’s Strategic Communication during Economic Challenges: Evidence from China 

Sophie Xiangqian Yi

Existing studies on propaganda in autocracies predominantly focus on how it highlights the instrumental, pragmatic benefits delivered by the regime, like economic development. However, the effectiveness of such instrumental propaganda is inherently bounded by the actual instrumental benefits received by the mass public. How does propaganda maintain the appeal of the autocratic regime, especially during periods of weakened instrumental appeals? To answer this question, this study explores the role of non-instrumental propaganda—propaganda that features the sentimental and moral appeals of the regime. Specifically, it investigates whether and how such non-instrumental propaganda varies with the actual instrumental benefits delivered by the regime, as is manifested in short-term economic performance. Examining nearly one million social media posts published by major state media accounts in China from 2013 to late 2020, this study finds that during short-term economic underperformance, these state media are more likely to feature a quintessential non-instrumental propaganda: Patriotism. Further insights from topic modeling reveals the potential mechanism of how patriotism propaganda can offset the decline in instrumental appeals: It highlights the sentimental and moral appeals of the country, seamlessly intertwining them with the appeals of the regime. In contrast to conventional understandings, it does not seek to invoke nationalism--the antagonistic, chauvinistic discourses of foreign actors. These findings shed light on the strategic use of non-instrumental propaganda by autocratic regimes, especially when confronted with limitations in demonstrating its legitimacy solely on instrumental grounds.

Discussant: Hannah Waight

Do They Always Come When You Build It? Public Reactions to U.S. and Chinese Aid in Indonesia

Naima Green-Riley

This paper reviews the successes and failures of both the United States and China in shaping preferences through aid in Indonesia during the 2010s. The analyses in the study draw on Indonesian survey data from the Asian Barometer, Gallup World Poll, and Google Trends. Results indicate that evaluations of aid often depended on dynamics in the Indonesian political landscape. When Indonesians near Chinese aid projects expressed negative impressions of Chinese influence, these trends were mediated by higher nationalist sentiment. When Indonesians near U.S. aid projects expressed negative impressions of U.S. influence, these trends were mediated by higher concerns about corruption, likely due to elite capture. On average, over the period between 2011 and 2017, exposure to Chinese aid projects increased negative evaluations of Chinese leadership, while exposure to U.S. aid projects increased positive evaluations of U.S. leadership. Increases in positive perceptions of U.S. leaders were mediated through greater interest in the United States, measured by volume of Google searches related to America.

Discussant: Peter Rosendorff

The Silent Game of Many: To Collude or to Shirk?

Guoer Liu

In government bureaucracies, achieving policy objectives typically involves multiple agents. Conventional wisdom suggests that increasing the number of agents leads to more shirking and less collusion due to cooperation challenges. I argue, however, that when agents possess distinct, non-overlapping expertise, a greater number of agents can promote collusion and mitigate shirking. I illustrate this idea through a modified version of the classic public goods game. The theoretical prediction is supported by the empirical analysis of China’s automatic ambient air quality network expansion between 2012 and 2022. I build an original dataset of the mission statements from all functional agencies at the prefectural level in China. Using this granular data, I develop empirical metrics to assess how executive responsibilities in environmental governance are distributed across functional agencies in each prefecture. I find that prefectures with more unique functional units dedicated to environmental governance build a surplus of monitoring, indicating a decrease in shirking behaviors. Interestingly, the same group of prefectures are also more likely to place their stations in cleaner sites post-automation, raising concerns about the potential for collusion. The results underscore the critical influence of organizational structure on the efficacy and integrity of policy implementation.

Discussant: Congyi Zhou

Bureaucratic Protection and Foreign Policy Information Provision in China

Tyler Jost

When do foreign policy bureaucracies in authoritarian regimes provide expert information and when do they withhold it? We argue that bureaucratic protection from arbitrary punishment shapes information provision. Bureaucrats are more likely to provide substantive and original information pertaining to their functional position when leaders use power sharing institutions to tie their hands from punishing bureaucrats if the leader arbitrarily dislikes their information. We test our theory by applying a range of supervised and automated text analysis methods to an original set of over 6,000 archival documents from the People's Republic of China during the Cold War, including nearly 2,000 diplomatic cables. 

Discussant: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Performative Propaganda Engagement: How Celebrity Fandom Engages with State Propaganda in China

Yingdan Lu

Established research on authoritarian information control has extensively examined the top-down dissemination of political propaganda and its impact on public attitudes and behaviors. This paper introduces a novel theory, performative propaganda engagement, which focuses on individuals who engage with state propaganda in a performative manner to benefit an individual or a group they align with, rather than diligently endorsing or promoting propaganda. Through mixed methods research approaches, this research empirically investigates performative propaganda engagement within the realm of Chinese online celebrity fandom, a rising cultural force on Chinese social media. The findings reveal that celebrity fans in China actively incorporate the promotion of state propaganda into their daily activities, aiming to enhance the visibility and reputation of their celebrities. Fans primarily engage with celebrity-signaling propaganda, and their engagement is instrumental. By exploring the manifestations of performative propaganda engagement, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of authoritarian information control and its downstream effects, contemporary online fandom culture in China, and the metrics-driven nature of social media ecosystem in the digital age.

Discussant: Joshua Tucker

Shadow of Authoritarian Patronage: Village Leaders and Elections in Democratizing South Korea

Jean Hong

This study explores whether the patronage between village leaders and an authoritarian regime continues to influence voting outcomes in later elections under authoritarian and democratic settings. We claim that authoritarian patronage remains effective over time, even after democratization, only when the clients can maintain strong trust in patronage. Using original data on village-leader trainees under the New Village Movement, a nationwide campaign-style rural development program in 1970s South Korea, we find that townships with more leaders trained by the authoritarian government were more likely to vote for the incumbent party in the subsequent legislative election. This tendency persisted in the following authoritarian elections in the 1980s under a new dictator. After South Korea transitioned to democracy in 1987, this effect initially waned but reemerged strongly as the authoritarian successor party rebranded through a strategic party merger. However, the effect of patronage eventually disappeared, as democracy consolidated and the agricultural sector became marginalized with neoliberal globalization. Our findings highlight that the legacy of authoritarian patronage is not simply an outcome of a strong dictatorship, but significantly shaped by the political and economic conditions of a new democracy.

Discussant: Arturas Rozenas

At the King’s Command: A Historical Study of Extraordinary Natural Occurrences and Executive Orders

Christopher Paik

In this paper we explore how extraordinary natural occurrences influenced executive decisions across different reigns in history. We utilize the Veritable Records of the Joseon Dynasty of Korea, the official daily accounts of the kingdom’s various affairs recorded between 1413 and 1865 CE. Covering the longest continual period of any single dynasty in the world, the annals provide an invaluable historical case study of daily decisions that were made by rulers and their council. Under the Confucian tradition the annals also record in detail various uncommon natural phenomena, interpreting anomalies and disasters (천변지이 [天變地異]) as heavenly signs of the ruler’s legitimacy. We find that these phenomena led to meaningful changes in how decisions were made by the governing body. Subsequent to the events the royal court took on a greater executive role and witnessed more cohesion between the king and his council, i.e. more decisions were made under the king’s direct orders and with less disagreement between the ruler and the council. These changes reflect concerted effort by the ruling body to strengthen their position in society and address legitimacy concerns.

Discussant: David Stasavage

The Countervailing Effect of Coercive Governance: Evidence from the Chinese Civil War

Ning He

How rebel groups interact with civilians has significant implications for the dynamics of civil war, yet most research has focused on the origins of rebel governance rather than its consequences. We argue that coercive rebel actions to control the population can negatively affect civilian compliance with rebel rule, undermining the military resources available to the rebels. We provide evidence for this claim with archival data from the Chinese Civil War (1946-1949), when the Chinese Communist Party carried out violent land reform in occupied areas that killed hundreds of thousands of people. We digitize a new dataset of 260,000 Communist soldiers to estimate how land reform affected the Communist Party's soldier recruitment during the Civil War. Comparing county-level soldier recruitment before and after land reform with a difference-in-differences estimation, we document a substantively large and negative effect of land reform on the number of new soldiers joining the Communist army. Our estimation shows land reform led to a 15% decrease in new soldiers. This effect was driven primarily by the violence in land reform, which outweighed any potential positive effects associated with land redistribution. These findings highlight the military cost of coercive rebel governance in civil war. 

Discussant: Michael Gilligan

Japan’s New Capitalism: Prioritize Equality of Opportunity with Predistribution

Steven Vogel

Munroe Kim: From Entertainment to News: Foreign Media Content and Authoritarian Stability

Xingchen Lan and Bokai Qi: Strategic Logic of Military Purges in Civil Wars: Evidence from the Chinese Red Army

Xingchen Lan: Catastrophes and Conflicts: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in the Second Sino-Japanese War

Aphra Chen and Xiuyu Li: Spillover Effects of Conflicts: How does the Ukraine-Russia conflict affect public opinion about Taiwan in China?

Cheng Cheng: Identity as a Ruling Device: Evidence from the Qing Dynasty of China (1748-1797)

Cixu Wang: TBA

Sangyong Son: Past traumatic experience and formation of foreign policy preferences: Evidence from atomic bomb survivors