Asterisks indicate an author is/was a postdoctoral*, graduate**, or undergraduate*** researcher in the lab.

Submitted and Under Review

• Julia M. Harrison**, Christopher L. Osburn, Elizabeth S. Darrow, Elise Morrison, Angela Harris, Natalie G. Nelson, Developing Predictive Models Using Sonde Data to Estimate Fecal Contamination in Estuarine Waters, Submitted (Sep 2, 2025)

• Natalie G. Nelson, Sheila M. Saia*, Makiko Shukunobe, Carrie Clower, Andrew Haines, A.K. Leight, Dwayne Porter, ShellCast: A Harvest Closure Forecast and Notification System for Shellfish Farmers and Harvesters, Submitted (Jun 13, 2025)

• Ikechukwu S. Onwuka*, Daniel R. Obenour, Natalie G. Nelson, Owen W. Duckworth, High-resolution soil total phosphorus mapping for the conterminous USA using machine learning, Submitted (May 14, 2025)

• Charlotte I. Lee*, Simeon Yurek, David B. Eggleston, Natalie G. Nelson, Synthesis of Observed Field Salinity Ranges for Oyster and Seagrass Species in the U.S., Submitted (Dec 19, 2024)

2025

• Natalie G. Nelson, Marcelo Ardón, Tal Ben-Horin, Eric Herbst, Whitney Knollenberg, María Menchú-Maldonado*, Christopher L. Osburn (2025), See Salt: Recommendations for Engaging Oyster Growers in Community-Based Coastal Monitoring Programs, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, accepted

• Mariella Carbajal Carrasco**, Daniela Jones, Cranos Williams, Natalie G. Nelson (2025), In-season Yield Forecasting using Multitemporal Remote Sensing Environmental Observations and Machine Learning: Applications for Sweetpotato in North Carolina, USA, European Journal of Agronomy, accepted

• Christopher Oates**, Khara Grieger, Ryan Emanuel, Natalie G. Nelson (2025), Surface waters in socially vulnerable areas are disproportionately under-monitored for nutrients in the U.S. South Atlantic Gulf Region, Nature Water, 3: 831-840. Preprint.

• Smitom Borah, Natalie G. Nelson, Owen Duckworth, Daniel Obenour (2025), Quantifying Internal Phosphorus Loading in Large Lakes and Reservoirs across the United States, ES&T, 59(21): 10445-10454

• Emine Fidan**, Brian Reich, Ryan Emanuel, Angela Harris, Sophia Kathariou, Natalie G. Nelson (2025), Spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of microbial contaminants in Hurricane Florence floodwaters, ES&T Water, 5(5): 2255-2267

• Abhinav Sharma, Celso Castro-Bolinaga, Natalie G. Nelson, Aaron Mittelstet (2025), Simulating Fluvial Sediment Pulses using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning: Development of a Modeling Framework Applicable to Data Rich and Scarce Regions, International Journal of Sediment Research, 40(3): 523-536

• María Menchú-Maldonado*, David Kaplan, Mauricio E. Arias, Eric Milbrandt, Elise Morrison, Edward Phlips, Natalie G. Nelson (2025), Day-ahead statistical forecasting of algal bloom risk to support reservoir release decisions in a highly engineered watershed, Journal of Environmental Management, 376: 124327

• Rebecca Logsdon Muenich, Sanskriti Aryal, Amanda J. Ashworth, Michelle L. Bell, Melanie R. Boudreau, Stephanie A. Cunningham, K. Colton Flynn, Kerry A. Hamilton, Ting Liu, Michael L. Mashtare, Natalie G. Nelson, Daniel R. Obenour, Barira Rashid, Arghajeet Saha, Callie Showalter, Danica SchafferSmith, Aureliane Tchamdja, Jada Thompson (2025), Gaps in Livestock Data are a Barrier to Effective Environmental and Disease Management, Environmental Research Letters, 20: 031001

• Samuel T. Wallace***, Natalie G. Nelson, Dominic D. Reisig, Anders S. Huseth (2025), Forecasting interannual abundance of Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), Environmental Entomology, 54(2): 378-385

2024

• Alison V. Deviney, Jehangir Bhadha, Lucas Crane, Maude Cuchiara, Shwetha Delanthamajalu, Luciano Gatiboni, Sandra M. Guzman, Christine Ogilvie Hendren, Anna-Maria Marshall, Elise Morrison, Natalie G. Nelson, Jay Rickabaugh, Rosangela Sozzani, Paul Westerhoff, Jacob Jones (2024), Triple Bottom Line Scenario Sites as Boundary Objects for Integrating Diverse Disciplines in Convergent Research, Sustainability, 16(23): 10429

• Christopher Oates**, Hector Fajardo**, Khara Grieger, Daniel R. Obenour, Rebecca L. Muenich, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Effective nutrient management of surface waters in the U.S. requires expanded water quality monitoring in agriculturally-intensive areas, ACS Environmental Au, 5(1): 1-11

> Part of Special Issue on "2024 Rising Stars in Environmental Research"

• Julia Harrison**, Christopher Osburn, Angela Harris, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Tryptophan-like fluorescence for monitoring fecal contamination in a marsh-dominated estuary, ES&T Water, 4(12): 5633-5644

• Qicheng Tang*, Owen W. Duckworth, Daniel R. Obenour, Stephanie B. Kulesza, Nathan A. Slaton, Andrew H. Whitaker, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Relationship between soil-test-phosphorus and agricultural surplus phosphorus, Journal of Environmental Quality, 53(6): 1127-1139

• Justine Neville, Ryan Emanuel, Natalie G. Nelson, Emily Bernhardt, Marcelo Ardón (2024), Standard Metrics for Characterizing Episodic Salinization in Freshwater Systems, Limnology and Oceanography: Methods, 22(9): 647-659

• Natalie Chazal**, Megan Carr**, Andrew Haines, A.K. Leight, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Assessing the Utility of Shellfish Sanitation Monitoring Data for Long-Term Estuarine Water Quality Analysis, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 203: 116465. Preprint.

• Megan M. Carr**, Adam C. Gold, Angela Harris, Katherine Anarde, Miyuki Hino, Nora Sauers***, Gabe Da Silva***, Catherine Gamewell***, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Fecal bacteria contamination of floodwaters and a coastal waterway from tidally-driven stormwater network inundation, GeoHealth, 8(4): e2024GH001020. Dryad repository. Preprint.

> Press release: 'Sunny Day Flooding' Increases Fecal Contamination of Coastal Waters

• Lise Montefiore*, David Kaplan, Edward Phlips, Eric Milbrandt, Mauricio Arias, Elise Morrison, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Downstream Nutrient Concentrations Depend on Watershed Inputs More Than Reservoir Releases in a Highly Engineered Watershed, Water Resources Research, 60(3): e2023WR035590. 1-page management synopsis.

> Press release: Watershed runoff has greater impact on downstream water quality than Lake Okeechobee releases, new study finds

• Natalie Chazal**, Megan Carr**, A.K. Leight, Sheila Saia, Natalie G. Nelson (2024), Short-Term Forecasting of Fecal Coliforms in Shellfish Growing Waters, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 200: 116053

2023

• Emine Fidan**, Natalie G. Nelson, Josh Gray, Barbara Doll (2023), Machine Learning Approach for Modeling Daily Pluvial Flood Dynamics in Agricultural Landscapes, Environmental Modelling & Software, 167: 105758

• Mahmoud Shehata, Pierre Gentine, Natalie Nelson, Chadi Sayde (2023), Optimization of the number and locations of the calibration stations needed to monitor soil moisture using distributed temperature sensing systems: A proof-of-concept study, Journal of Hydrology, 620, part A, 129449

• Natalie Reynolds**, Blake A. Schaeffer, Lucie Guertault, Natalie G. Nelson (2023), Satellite and in situ cyanobacteria monitoring: Understanding the impact of monitoring frequency on management decisions, Journal of Hydrology, 619: 129278. GitHub repository.

• Lise R. Montefiore**, Natalie G. Nelson, Michelle D. Staudinger, Adam Terando (2023), Vulnerability of Estuarine Systems in the Contiguous United States to Water Quality Change Under Future Climate and Land-Use, Earth's Future, 11(3): e2022EF002884. Shiny app for accessing data and adjusting adaptive capacity indicator weights. Dryad repository.

> Press release: Estuaries Face Higher Nutrient Loads in the Future - Particularly on the Atlantic Coast

• Edward J. Phlips, Susan Badylak, Loren Mathews, Eric Milbrandt, Lise R. Montefiore*, Elise Morrison, Natalie G. Nelson, Ben Stelling (2023), Algal blooms in a river‐dominated estuary and nearshore region of Florida, USA: The influence of regulated discharges from water control structures on hydrologic and nutrient conditions, Hydrobiologia, 850: 4385-4411

2022

• Enrique Peña Martinez, Jason K. Ward, Guy Collins, Natalie G. Nelson (2022), Refining cotton replanting recommendations, Journal of Cotton Science, 26(2): 56-65

• Natalie G. Nelson, Jeremy Cothran, Dan Ramage, Megan M. Carr**, Keith Skiles, Dwayne E. Porter (2022), Implementing FAIR Data Management Practices in Shellfish Sanitation, Aquaculture Reports, 26: 101324. GitHub repository.

• Mahmoud Shehata, Pierre Gentine, Natalie G. Nelson, Chadi Sayde (2022), Characterizing Soil Water Content Variability across Spatial Scales from Optimized High-Resolution Distributed Temperature Sensing Technique, Journal of Hydrology, 128195

• Lise R. Montefiore** and Natalie G. Nelson (2022), Can a simple water quality model effectively estimate runoff-driven nutrient loads to estuarine systems? A national-scale comparison of STEPLgrid and SPARROW, Environmental Modelling & Software, 150: 105344

• Nandita B. Basu, Kimberly J. Van Meter, Danyka K. Byrnes, Philippe Van Cappellen, Roy Brouwer, Brian H. Jacobsen, Jerker Jarsjö, David L. Rudolph, Maria C. Cunha, Natalie Nelson, Ruchi Bhattacharya, Georgia Destouni, Søren Bøye Olsen, (2022), Managing Nitrogen Legacies to Accelerate Water Quality Improvement, Nature Geoscience, 15: 97-105

• Lise R. Montefiore**, Natalie G. Nelson, Amanda Dean***, Mahmoud Sharara (2022), Reconstructing the historical expansion of concentrated swine feeding operations from Landsat imagery, Scientific Reports, 12: 1736

> Press release: Satellite Imagery Gives Researchers Timeline of When Swine Waste Lagoons Were Built // Feature by NASA Image of the Day: Spotting the Rise of Swine Lagoons

• Sheila Saia*, Natalie G. Nelson, Sierra N. Young, Stanton Parham, Micah Vandegrift (2022), Ten Simple Rules for Researchers Who Want to Develop Web Apps, PLOS Computational Biology, 18(1): e1009663. Preprint.

• Alice Alonso*, Natalie G. Nelson, Simeon Yurek, David Kaplan, Maitane Olabarrieta, and Peter Frederick (2022), Estimating the influence of oyster reef chains on freshwater detention at the estuary scale using Landsat-8 imagery, Estuaries and Coasts, 45: 1-16 

> Estuaries and Coasts Editors' Choice, January 2022

2021

• Natalie G. Nelson, Maude L. Cuchiara, Christine Ogilvie Hendren, Jacob L. Jones, Anna-Maria Marshall (2021), Hazardous Spills at Retired Fertilizer Manufacturing Plants Will Continue to Occur in the Absence of Scientific Innovation and Regulatory Enforcement, Environmental Science & Technology, 55(24): 16267-16269 (Note: Viewpoint articles are reviewed by journal editors but do not undergo external peer review)

• Edward J. Phlips, Susan Badylak, Natalie G. Nelson, Lauren M. Hall, Charles A. Jacoby, Margaret A. Lasi, Jean C. Lockwood, Jan Miller (2021), Cyclical patterns and a regime shift in the character of phytoplankton blooms in a restricted sub-tropical lagoon, Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA, Frontiers in Marine Science, 8: 730934

• Angela Harris, Emine Fidan**, Natalie G. Nelson, Ryan Emanuel, Theo Jass, Sophia Kathariou, Jeffrey Niedermeyer, Mahmoud Sharara, Francis de los Reyes III, Diego Riveros-Iregui, Jill Stewart (2021), Microbial Contamination in Environmental Waters of Rural and Agriculturally-Dominated Landscapes Following Hurricane Florence, Environmental Science & Technology Water, 1(9): 2012-2019

> Press release: Human, Swine Waste Pose Dual Threats to Water Quality After Flooding

• Eric Milbrandt, Alfonse J. Martignette, Mark Thompson, Richard Bartleson, Edward J. Phlips, Susan Badylak, and Natalie G. Nelson (2021), Geospatial distribution of hypoxia associated with a Karenia brevis bloom, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 259: 107446

• Martin J. Wells, Troy E. Gilmore, Natalie G. Nelson, Aaron Mittelstet, and JK Böhlke (2021), Determination of vadose and saturated-zone nitrate lag times using long-term groundwater monitoring data and statistical machine learning, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25: 811–829

• Samiul Haque, Edgar Lobaton, Natalie Nelson, Craig Yencho, Kenneth Pecota, Russel Mierop, Michael Kudenov, Mike Boyette, and Cranos M Williams (2021), Computer vision approach to characterize size and shape phenotypes of  horticultural crops using high-throughput imagery, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 182: 106011  

• Tiffany Messer, Trisha Moore, Natalie G. Nelson, Laurent Ahiablame, Eban Bean, Chelsie Boles, Sonja Cook, Steven Hall, John McMaine, and Derek Schlea (2021), Constructed Treatment Wetlands for Agroecosystems: A Synthesis for Nutrient Removal, Transactions of the ASABE, 64(2): 625-639

2020

• Sheila Saia*, Natalie G. Nelson, Anders Huseth, Khara Grieger, and Brian Reich (2020), Transitioning Machine Learning from Theory to Practice in Natural Resources Management, Ecological Modelling, 435(1): 109257. Preprint. 

• Jeffrey Niedermeyer, William Miller, Emma Yee, Angela Harris, Ryan Emanuel, Theo Jass, Natalie G. Nelson, and Sophia Kathariou (2020), Search for Campylobacter reveals high prevalence and pronounced genetic diversity of Arcobacter butzleri in floodwater samples associated with Hurricane Florence, North Carolina, USA, Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 86(20): e01118-20

• Barbara Doll, Jack Kurki-Fox, Jonathan Page, Natalie G. Nelson, and Jeffrey Johnson (2020), Flood Flow Frequency Analysis to Estimate Potential Floodplain Nitrogen Treatment during Overbank Flow Events in Urban Stream Restoration Projects, Water, 12(6): 1568  

• Sara Donatich, Barbara Doll, Jonathan Page, and Natalie G. Nelson (2020), Can the Stream Quantification Tool (SQT) protocol predict the biotic condition of streams in the Southeast Piedmont (USA)?, Water, 12(5): 1485  

• Natalie G. Nelson, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, and Edward Phlips (2020), Parameter uncertainty drives important incongruities between simulated chlorophyll and phytoplankton functional group dynamics in a mechanistic management model, Environmental Modelling & Software, 129: 104708

• Edward Phlips, Susan Badylak, Natalie G. Nelson, and Karl Havens (2020), Hurricanes, El Niño and harmful algal blooms in two sub-tropical Florida estuaries: Direct and indirect impacts, Scientific Reports, 10: 1910  

2019

• Tiffany Messer, Kyle R. Douglas-Mankin, Natalie G. Nelson, and J. Randall Etheridge (2019), Wetland ecosystem resilience: Protecting and restoring valuable ecosystems, Transactions of the ASABE, 62(6): 1541-1543  

• Natalie G. Nelson, Lise Montefiore**, Cord Anthony***, Laura Merriman, Emma Kuster, and Garey Fox (2019), Undergraduate exposure to climate education in natural resources management, Transactions of the ASABE, 62(3): 831-839

• Lora Smith, C. Nathan Jones, and Natalie G. Nelson (2019), Featured Collection Introduction: The Emerging Science of Aquatic System Connectivity II, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 55(3): 526-528

• C. Nathan Jones, Natalie G. Nelson, and Lora Smith (2019), Featured Collection Introduction: The Emerging Science of Aquatic System Connectivity I, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 55(2), 287-293 

2018

• Natalie G. Nelson, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Edward J. Phlips, David Kaplan, Peter Sucsy, and John Hendrickson (2018), Revealing biotic and abiotic controls of harmful algal blooms in a shallow subtropical lake through statistical machine learning, Environmental Science & Technology, 52(6), 3527-3535

• Yue Rong, Andrea V. Padron, Kyle J. Hagerty, Natalie G. Nelson, Song Chi, Nemat O. Keyhani, Joseph Katz, Shoumen Datta, Carmen Gomes, and Eric McLamore (2018), Post hoc support vector machine learning for biosensors based on weak protein-ligand interactions, Analyst, 143, 2066-2075

2017

• Natalie G. Nelson, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Patrick J. Neale, Maria Tzortziou, and J. Patrick Megonigal (2017), Temporal variability in the importance of hydrologic, biotic, and climatic descriptors of dissolved oxygen dynamics in a shallow tidal-marsh creek, Water Resources Research, 53, 7103-7120

• Natalie G. Nelson, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, and Edward J. Phlips (2017), A novel quantile method reveals spatiotemporal shifts in phytoplankton descriptors between bloom and non-bloom conditions in a subtropical estuary, Marine Ecology Progress Series, 567:57-78